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2.85" here, 1" BN for March. This week's 2 midgets will close the gap, but the month will still be the 10th BN of the last 11. April 2007 broke the record for snow at the Farmingtion co-op with 36.1"; it's 50% above #2 at 24", POR 1983-2022. We had 37.2", with storms of 18.5", 11.2" and my only "5-by-5" event. The Patriots Day bomb brought 5.2" SN and 5.43": total precip. That said, my best April has to be 1982, as it included the most powerful blizzard of my 80 years' experience. For anomalous events, that storm ranks with things like the Octobomb, 4/97 at inland sites, 2/78 in eastern SNE, 2/52 in Maine and the 1998 ice storm. IMO, only 1938 and 1888 rank higher.
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2026-2027 El Nino
roardog replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
He’s saying it caused the MJO to be in phases that you wouldn’t normally expect during a very strong Nino. This is kind of what people on here have been saying just in a different way. -
2026-2027 El Nino
Stormchaserchuck1 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The 23-24 Winter warmth was not all because of Strong El Nino. It's like saying 01-02 and 97-98 match if you compare US Temp maps. There were different patterns leading to the same localized outcome. The N. Pacific is the main region effected by ENSO, and the N. Pacific pattern was relatively weak in 23-24. That's why the RONI worked better than ONI that year. The +WPO was a main driver of 23-24, it just matched corresponding US El Nino temp patterns, but not necessarily because of the same reasons (unless you can explain why +wpo is el nino - I think it's more of a -PDO/cold ENSO pattern). -
Let's get some heat next week!!!
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Ahh that’s tough bro…feel for you. Go enjoy some warmth and sun…it’ll do you good.
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A true HECS there. Underforecast too. Was on the western edge of the jackpot here "only" got 30 inches. I knew it had potential when the overrunning part of the storm dropped 12 inches
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March 25 2007: Record warmth stretches from southern Minnesota to western Wisconsin with 72 at Owatonna, 77 at Menomonie, WI, and 80 at Eau Claire, WI. 1981: An F2 tornado hits Morrison county and does $25,000 worth of damage. For Wednesday, March 25, 2026 1843 - A second great snowstorm hit the northeastern U.S. The storm produced snow from Maine all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. Natchez MS received three inches of snow, and up to 15 inches buried eastern Tennessee. Coastal Maine received 204 inches of snow that winter. (David Ludlum) 1914 - Society Hill, SC, was buried under 18 inches of snow, establishing a state record. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987) 1934 - A spring storm produced 21 inches of snow at Amarillo TX in 24 hours. However, much of the snow melted as it fell, and as a result, the snow cover was never any deeper than 4.5 inches. (David Ludlum) 1948 - For the second time in less than a week airplanes were destroyed by a tornado at Tinker AFB in Oklahoma City OK. A March 20th tornado destroyed fifty planes at Tinker AFB causing more than ten million dollars damage, and the March 25th tornado destroyed another thirty-five planes causing six million dollars damage. The first tornado struck without warning, and caused more damage than any previous tornado in the state of Oklahoma. The second tornado was predicted by Fawbush and Miller of the United States Air Force, and their accurate tornado forecast ushered in the modern era of severe weather forecasting. (The Weather Channel) (Storm Data) (The National Severe Storms Forecast Center) 1975 - The town of Sandberg reported a wind gust to 101 mph, a record for the state of California. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Heavy rain left rivers and streams swollen in Kansas and Nebraska, causing considerable crop damage due to flooding of agricultural areas. The Saline River near Wilson Reservoir in central Kansas reached its highest level since 1951. March rainfall at Grand Island NE exceeded their previous record of 5.57 inches. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - An early season heat wave prevailed in the southwestern U.S. The high of 93 degrees at Tucson, AZ, was a new record for March. Windy conditions prevailed across the central and eastern U.S. Winds gusted to 60 mph at Minneapolis MN, and reached 120 mph atop Rendezvous Peak WY. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1989 - A Pacific storm brought wet weather to much of the western third of the country, with heavy snow in some of the higher elevations. La Porte CA was drenched with 3.56 inches of rain in 24 hours. Up to 24 inches of snow blanketed the Sierra Nevada Range. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1990 - Temperatures dipped below zero in the Northern Rocky Mountain Region. Hardin MT was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 10 degrees below zero. Freezing drizzle was reported in the Southern Plains Region, with afternoon highs only in the 30s from the Southern High Plains to Missouri and Arkansas. (The National Weather Summary)
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Sucks...Steve just lost a pet, too. I had two dogs as a child that I got in third grade....they lived until I was 27 lol. Like 18 years.
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Per JB, the reason the 2023-4 El Niño was so mild in much of the U.S. is that there weren’t the typical cold SST anomalies around Australia that often exist during El Niño as it instead was warm there. He’s expecting colder anomalies around Australia this time. Remember how the model consensus had at H5 the beautiful E US and Aleutian troughs? Opinions?
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We had to put our dog down on Monday and scheduled it to happen like 2.5 weeks ago. It was an absolutely emotionally grinding few weeks and really hard processing. I know things will get better over time but the process getting to that point absolutely sucks.
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Although the mid Atlantic will be toasty next week.
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Mind off things….? Everything ok pal?
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Exactly. Although had some friends fly out of BDL a few days ago, and there was no issues at all. Wiz is going out of Tweed…that’s a small little regional…should have no issues there either. Coming back out of Palm Beach might be a different story.
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JB in recent days finally gave up on a cold E US overall 3/15-4/15. So, he’s admitting defeat regarding his forecast for an overall chilly March in the E US. He got the first week of this period right, regardless, which included a cold St. Patrick’s Day. But he’s given up on an overall cold Holy Week/Easter. However, he’s now saying, “I think there’s going to be a lot of cold air develop in April across the United States.” He’s basing this partially on the prospect of MJO in phases 2-3, which he said tend to be cold in April. (I haven’t done my own research on that.) He’s also basing it on the prospects for a -NAO and -EPO as well as a “crash” of the SOI after the TCs are done. So, he’s expecting “quite the trough” mid to late April in the E US.
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From what I've heard, leave now so you can get through the lines on time to make your flight.
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It's that time of year when my wife or daughter asks me what the temperature will be outside and I'm like "No idea"..becuase I don't have enough interest to check models or forecasts. Yawn.
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Flying to PBI from HVN 6:30 Friday morning. Headed to Miami for a few days for a bachelor party. Hoping that will at least take my mind off things after this week but much, much looking forward to a few days of temperatures around 80 with a touch of humidity.
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euro looks p good next week
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rough. dont feel bad i missed Feb 2013. And not only was that a major storm for CT, i am pretty much ground zero jackpot in that storm...
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I don't delve deeply into this time of the year, but the roll forward into April and May doesn't look balmy.
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6z euro AI is a total cancel there. It is warm Wednesday, but a fail after that.
