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Are there temp and snowfall maps for 82-83/97-98? Well, I know the temp maps are out there.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The just released WCS daily PDO for yesterday was up to -0.58! They haven’t been this high since way back in late June. It has risen ~1.07 over just the last 10 days. It had dipped to as low as -2.19 on Aug 1st. In case anyone is wondering, it hasn’t been red since it went barely positive on ~6 dates between 3/31/25 and 4/19/25 (highest was ~+0.08 on 4/5/25). One can also see it barely missed going red on 3/1/26. But unlike then and Mar-Apr of ‘25, there’s obviously now a supportive for a higher PDO full fledged very strong Nino -
Septorcher 2026 Discussion - Endless Summer
#NoPoles replied to Damage In Tolland's topic in New England
July giving you the FU finger -
The only thing I am sure of is it will probably act much closer to 82-83/97-98 than it will 15-16 and 23-24, those last 2 just had numerous oddities that more resembled La Ninas, there is probably no chance that is happening this time, especially since the last 2 winters showed signs of moving away from that pattern we had been seeing for the previous 5-6 winters.
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I got ~0.6” 9-10AM from a nice batch of convection moving NNE over almost the entire SAV area.
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SPC has a green check mark day 1 marginal risk out today just for 5% damaging winds stalled frontal boundary shenanigans .
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Not even fall yet, and 2021 was pretty warm so we'll see.
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Warmest fall on record looks likely
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
1973 is the one I don't like, but I don't expect the strongly +AO that that season had...even NAO maybe more favorable. Biggest issue here maybe the ridge suppressing storms at times. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I’d love this combination for the SE US! -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Looks to be slightly less MC influence than 2016. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
michsnowfreak replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
A +1.5C (+2.7F) winter in Detroit is a DJF temp of 31.1F. A -1.0C (-1.8F) winter in Houston is a DJF temp of 53.4F. I better pack my cowboy boots and hat now -
I expect some 2019 records get broken in a few places. Fortunately looks like it’ll retrograde back west soon after so I don’t see persistence of the heat as much as that year
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Line up well: -
I know youre likely exaggerating, but I have friends in the UK and I can guarantee Chicago will have a colder/snowier winter than London.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
40/70 Benchmark replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
1958, 1987 and 1973 look like best matches to me. -
2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Winter Wizard replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Record warmth now covers most of the Gulf. northern Caribbean Sea, and portions of the Atlantic. Wouldn't take much for a spin-up to occur in a prime spot with the right steering flow to put parts of the US in danger over the coming weeks. I do worry that the narrative of "record low" activity (which is true) is going to cause people to let their guards down. @GaWxshowed proof of that. Additionally, if this combo does not occur in 2026, then that becomes extra concerning for 2027, especially if there is a flip back to a cool ENSO state. -
November 19th
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0.01” here for September, hopefully this weekend produces
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