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So far looks better. Baby steps!!

Anybody in the triad go outside and check out the moon ring. Thats nuts!! When I figure out how to post a photo I will.

Nam thru hour 30. Compared to 18z

The rain/snow line on the 00Z HRRR is pretty much identical to 18Z. The main difference is that it reduced totals by half in NC. At least for the triangle, this has all the makings of some initial sleet/snow falling for a short period of time (if that) and then quickly going to all cold rain.

Gonna be better for all

Let’s see what MRX notes with their next update in regards to soundings.

HRRR looks like it is has some downslope over the eastern valley. Looks very similar to its 18z run.

So far 00z nam looking more robust a bit to my untrained eye compared to 18z.

Alright, good trends, Nam you’re next

You are thanking the wrong person. @SnowenOutThere has reeled this in for us. I'll be able to say it's "SnowenOutThere" two days from now.

NAM looks like a good step from 18z so far.

I sort of retired from my engineering job two years ago and decided to pick up weather in my free time last year. I'm an EE major and applied mathematics minor so I can hang with with the math but I was disappointed looking through the Atmospheric mechanics text book I bought since it was mostly fluid dynamics calculus, which I guess makes sense since the atmosphere is a fluid, duh, but all those dels and curls bummed me out. I just wanted to skip forward to the part about how noreasters form. As luck would have it they dragged me back in and now I'm doing engineering consulting for all these data center powerplants getting built so I have no time for weather. Maybe during my second attempt at retirement... Rest assured, I'm doing my part to help bring your electric bills back down.

Models fully account for precip evaporating or subliming during descent.

The two weeks that followed were the best 2 weeks I've ever had in any winter!!!

https://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/cras/cras45_NA/12/model_l.html

The one thing that annoys me about the HRRR is how the best forcing arrives with the precip (which makes sense I suppose). However, according to the soundings we have an entrenched layer of dry air (someone pointed this out earlier) which would sublimate before it could be saturated. HRRR shows this taking a couple hours which would be painful (though another actually smart met will need to chime in on how much that matters in relation to its molded snowfall output or if its factored into it). The good news to my eyes is once the column does saturate its game on with a saturated DGZ and good lift aligned with it! I know @psuhoffman mentioned that strong winds in the DGZ can break apart crystals but from my (admittedly chatgpt) understanding this soundings seems fine in that regard.

Just Keep a creeping northp plzzz.!

And the two weeks that followed.

Almost WSW criteria in S. central VA. You are reeling this one in for us. Hats off sir!

I would really hate to see this cold pattern pattern with mjo phase 7-8-1 without a nice snowstorm!! Seems like a waste

Let me know. You can meet me at my place and we can car pool

Hrrr support from the Srefs

There's no legit high to the NE. Its all progressive bullshit. This December pattern is not going to produce. I dont care what the MJO shows. We need another pattern reset.

Let’s pull off a 1/30/10

0z HRRR looking a little RAPish, about 40 SE with the snow wrt 18z: I'll wait until 12z tomorrow to get my hopes up for the inevitable flop though.