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12Z UKMET: Fay starts off deceased but revives once again (on Friday) and like 2 runs ago becomes a TS: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 27.3N 60.5W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 03.10.2026 60 27.3N 60.5W 1014 27 1200UTC 03.10.2026 72 29.3N 60.6W 1013 28 0000UTC 04.10.2026 84 31.8N 60.1W 1012 30 1200UTC 04.10.2026 96 34.0N 58.9W 1012 30 0000UTC 05.10.2026 108 35.6N 57.1W 1011 29 1200UTC 05.10.2026 120 37.5N 55.3W 1009 30 0000UTC 06.10.2026 132 40.2N 53.3W 1004 33 1200UTC 06.10.2026 144 44.7N 49.2W 996 41 0000UTC 07.10.2026 156 51.2N 44.3W 992 43 1200UTC 07.10.2026 168 CEASED TRACKING @jconsor

Just noticed PSU now has bufkit data for RRFS.

Saw breaks of blue but quickly destroyed

Welp finally kicked the cloud deck out and made it to party sunny

I-35 corridor looks pretty good overall for really good rain. There will be winners and losers though. I look to be on the losing end in Longview, but we'll see how it plays out. Definitely looking forward to the "cooler" weather, either way.

Yeah, the rain was nice, but this turning into a dreary week kind of sucks. I don’t think the suns been out here

Will we ever see the sun again?

Four Corners low cold and snow. It is snowing in Colorado, but at over 11000ft at Wolf Creek Pass, so pretty high up there

But that was a qualifier. Not to say its not warmer but We had some scorchers in the early 70s. Remember not using a wetsuit until mid October . Overall September is about a 1.5 degree rise. Still some variation warmest September was 1961 now thats an absolute torch.

Today will probably be a slight + too. This month would've been solidly AN when I was growing up in the 90s.

Nope +0.7F

GWDLT. August was below too at BDL I believe…

I hear ya. Weighing in here from the Fort Collins area. It looks like we're way too far north to cash in on any of this moisture. Should be getting to used to that by now but still get PO'd about it! Hope you guys in Denver metro get something out of it. BTW here in northern CO and in WY to our north it's been a miserably hot and dry year, and seemingly no end to it.

Some body has said very recently that we don't have BN September's anymore despite the new normals. Probably Forky or Kev BIG 4 September BOSTON - 1.2 PVD -.04 HFD -.09 ORH -09

same in pwm. Misting and wet.

I hate the 1997 analog for everything but ENSO....2015 is good from a polar standpoint. This is the summer analog H5 composite I came up with.

Won’t be either here

Ohhhhh...that makes more sense...so 50% of between -.78 and +.32...that is more palatable for me, but I would still hedge higher.

2 brutal forecast days by NWS here . Mostly sunny epic fail

In the whole picture I'm not seeing H5 similarities to 1997 and 2015.

What are the correlation values for New England? Good luck with your forecast. Impressive EnSO discussions. New England is a wildcard because of the correlations drop off rapidly here. Not you but I wish people would understand a pos 2 month in Eastern Canada is still bitterly cold. To say there's not going to be cold air source this winter is incorrect. It is entirely possible our pattern of cold stormy intrusions continues all fall.

Close to Oct 1997 and 2015. The only difference is those years had more ridging north of the Bering sea. These were +PDO Ninos.