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  2. 1. Why are you using 1991-2020 for climo for a 1987 summer? That diminishes the above normal H5 in the E US on your 1st map. 2. The highest height anomalies/warmest temp annomalies are in the E US, regardless. How is that El Ninoish?
  3. Deflect from what? 1987 had a summer pattern that was a reasonable match for El Nino expectations.This summer is completely different.
  4. I thought the discussion was regarding El Niño summers. What relevance does throwing La Nada or Niñas into the mix have? Subtle deflect however.
  5. End of month update: Another 1.8 " (mostly in buckets Tuesday evening) to close the month at an even 15" for July. June/July total at 19.6". Talk about inflection points. Also, the trend held, drought dropping us to D1 this week. Since Tuesday's rain not counted in that assessment, and Sunday/Monday looking wet, will we manage D4, D3, D2, D1, D0 on successive weeks?
  6. I’m going to cosplay this cut off low as a weak tropical storm.
  7. +9c has popped in the subsurface on TAO/Triton for the first time of this event! It's warming pretty rapidly too, we may see a +10c in a couple of days. That's +18F, so if the water is usually 62F, it's now 80F.
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  9. I don't think this winter will be nearly as bad as people are expecting. December and January are likely to be warm and wet. How much of that ends up as snow will just be some luck on low pressure tracks/placements. I wouldn't put a lot of hope into a White Christmas for Southern New England. However, February and March are looking cooler on the long range forecasts, while still showing above normal precipitation. Could be a back-loaded winter. Locking in a below normal snowfall winter would be quite pre-mature at this point while the El Nino is still developing, and other factors may come into play.
  10. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  11. It wasn’t even a hot summer for the cooler 1980s era. The warmest 1980s summer was 1988 and the 2nd warmest 1980. This current July is close to the warmest July on record. So there really isn’t a comparison to the summer of 1987.
  12. Yeah, I thought we were talking about ENSO. 1987 is a really good find, as that was one of the most El Nino Summers on record, JJA ONI was +1.5c, all time record for JJA is +1.6c
  13. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

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  14. The Appleton tornado damage path was 12.1 miles long, and 0.85 mile wide, EF-3
  15. But the summer of 1987 was hot based on the climo centered on the period it was within as I posted. Why are you comparing it to more recent (hotter) climo that makes it not seem as hot? Also, the hottest was in the E 1/2 of the US regardless of what climo you use.
  16. Looks like a repeat of July. HHH the first week of August. After that much closer to normal or below...
  17. That's not the look you want to see on the CFS if you like warm and dewey. One person in farting in North Dakota is enough to trigger the CFS to show above normal temps...
  18. That was still a cooler summer by recent standards. June-August 1987 71.77°F -0.54°F
  19. Looking at radar, the best action may stay west of me. Current activity doesn't look as impressive as earlier.
  20. OHC is at a new high on this graph:
  21. Oh okay gotcha thanks Jeff also agreed and yep we shall see by day 1 tomorrow .
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