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The same guy (who uses statistical techniques to do long-range forecasts) has been calling for a SSW or near-SSW in Nov for more than a month. He also suggests a high risk for a SSW in Feb: https://x.com/Statisticizer/status/2114022327008612489

Bam on board

Some interesting analog years with weak strat PV/SSW in here: https://x.com/Statisticizer/status/2114434656158224475

Yea, it probably won't be record setting....not intending to imply it's a physical implausibility. I get how anomalous this is...could also be a record deal nationally, but not in any one region.

I realize you're just talking/rhetoric here but ... there's a non-zero order probability that when the +ENSO is finally "pattern forcing" ...what emerges is shock-and-awe. Or not ... just sayn'

John, There is a record weak SPV for early Nov being modeled, which would result in anomalies of ~-20 m/s. It may not result in an actual wind reversal (<0 m/s), but a, say, +5 m/s event would still be record shattering.

John, how do you feel about last winter's early season warming? I know there was some skepticism there as well, and it ultimately (at least partially) led to a colder turn in January. I'm not trying to gaslight you or anything, either...honest inquiry, as the stat stuff is often so complicated and ambiguous.

Absolutely 100%...this is what I was trying to explain to Forky. The pattern will still suck, but it won't be record setting.

Both December 82 and 2015 had blowtorches for Christmas, which usually happens in strong nino's..If we can avoid that I guess you can call it a victory of sorts. I'm just trying to find any light of hope from this impeding disaster.

I appreciate your point and 10 or 20 years ago I would have agreed and I've even written things very similar. I have a sociology degree so I can even confirm everything you say is clinically correct. However, I have become jaded, and my definition of stupid now includes people who are unable to get their heads out of their own arse and realize when they are being manipulated. And yes I realize that definition of stupid means about 50% of the human population is stupid. I grew up in a conservative Christian family. I was forced to attend Sunday school, until they asked me to stop because I would point out God was a terrorist monster for killing all the Egyptian first born children over a political agenda when he could have just snapped his fingers and got what he wanted. Apparently that wasn't the message they wanted me to get from the passover lesson. But my point is I was subjected to the same attempts at programming and propaganda that every other conservative was. And I will admit it took me a while to overcome it. When I was 15 I did something horrible. A boy who was clearly gay tried to be my friend and I avoided him because of how the other students were teasing me over being nice to him. I was a coward. I am ashamed that I was too weak at that age to tell the rest of them to go F themselves for how they were treating that boy. But I eventually did grow up, realized what utter BS conservatives were selling, and overcame the programming. So I have absolutely no sympathy for the people who choose to remain in that place mentally. Lastly for the record I am no longer trying to change anyone's mind. I spend 20 years doing that and it's useless. I am living my life and telling those people what I think of them, and they can go F themselves. I no longer care enough to try to save them from themselves. They can keep voting for policies that F them over for all I care. F around and find out! I do feel bad for the good people who get hurt by them but I've realized I can only do what I can do on an individual personal level. I donate my time and money to organizations that make a difference. I make sure day to day to be kind and generous to people. I coach. I teach. I make sure my children will NEVER by like those people. But unfortunately I think that no matter what there are too many stupid people who will always be easy to manipulate by powerful people with nefarious motives and that struggle is inevitable .

One reason I am starting to lean away from a December 2015 torch is that we should see a more active southern stream in the SE US. It will be “only” mild/warm. The lack of active southern stream in 12/2015 caused the typical Canadian ridge to go much further south compared to December 2024 or December 1997. Part of this will be due to lack of MC forcing and more E Pac forcing, which will help sustain a more active southern stream in the SE. So the same E based orientation that makes it more difficult to get snow will also make it more difficult to get a record 2015 torch.

yeah I'm not attempting to 'take credit' don't give a shit. It's probably obvious to most anyway ... it was a question that popped into head back in summer actually ha. when it was 89 F

Only need a few days of a decent pattern as I know you know. I'm clinging to the +3.4 in 12/82 at BWI with 7.2" as proof it can happen, though not necessarily that it has to or will happen. Add to that December climo at BWI is terrible. P.s. It was 70 on Christmas that year! Lol

There is no SSW modeled from what I'm seeing anyway ... Just pointing that out for the straw man if no one's betting. General readers: This exact same aspect took place over the last three consecutive latter autumns - the tropopausal heights over the N arc of the oceanic-atmospheric coupled "thermal bulge", lifted in altitude and introduced a warm anomaly between 50 and 150 hPa altitudes. This then terminates higher into the PV near the top 10 ... 5 hPa levels registering/forcing a faux split, because there is residual warmth that does get that high. But, that is bottom --> up phenomenon. SSWs are intrusions that begin above 30 hPa, and often pulse for a week before the main plume arrives -first- at the very high altitude. Then, given time, it descends in altitude... usually taking ~ 2 weeks to make that journey... As it lowers, it stabilizes the AO domain - this rises eights in the 500 to 200 hPa levels, a.k.a. blocking Now... there's definitely some lop over in physical characteristic and behaviors. It's not an all or not ... Some warm intrusions may then in turn downward propagate after the fact. Or, the bottom --> up could be in tandem with the other, making it suggestive in both direction, and difficult to parse out attribution. By and large, a text book SSW looks like this though, which I've annotated... Notable -AO correlation toward the end of January (~20 days past the onset of the total event) was extreme, and carried over into February that year.

These are what’s left…and most of this will be down by Thursday/Friday.

Yesterday was phenomenal. With the two trees in the front yard having lost all their leaves (well one still has a little bit left but very little) I was able to clean out the gutters and get the grill all cleaned. Started off chilly working but warmed up quickly and was even able to take off the light long sleeve...could have easily switched from jeans to shorts too. Feels great getting a lot of (or mostly all of) the outside work done and doing so in very pleasant weather. Hope we can continue these types of weekends for a bit longer...can just sit outside and enjoy the day with little work left to do

The point is…it’s dull where you are no doubt. But that’s not the norm. Sadly You have a lot of oaks there which provide low color. And we all know oaks hold their leaves a long time. And to be honest…the leaves are coming down fast now here, by Thursday…when it’s the anniversary of the October bomb…there will be a lot down.

Not a torch, per se...but not a good look, either....really no avenue for cold to get here.

Thanks. I think everyone who only views the forum on their phones doesn't get why I took issue. He has a HUGE signature ranting about climate change which you have to see every time he makes a post, and then complains when someone responds to it with the passive aggressive "we're not supposed to talk about that here" BS. This is also a tactic not confined to this specific case. I've brought this up before and taken issue with it. That side of the argument is deploying a passive aggressive and very deliberate tactic taking advantage of our forum rules about politics. They find a way to say what they want to say, push it as far as it can go. blur the lines... then when you respond back directly they deploy the "were not supposed to talk about it" and the whole conversation gets shut down. They got to make their point and then the discourse is over. If the mods what to have a no climate change discussion rule I am all for it, but then any reference at all to climate denial (including in a signature) should be deleted immediately. The members who continue to try to circumvent or be cute with these rules should get warned and eventually banned the same way I would get banned if I continue to respond to them. This isn't just an Americanwx issue...I've observed this same exact tactic from the same political ideology across the internet in other online communities.

Chris has said that.

With this record breaking and possibly even record shattering weak early Nov SPV very likely, what do you and others think that leads us to for Dec? Previously I was thinking based on @snowman19+QBO/Nino analogs that Dec overall would likely be mild in the E US outside of possibly NN in the SE. But, I noticed that while Nov warmed considerably on the latest 10 day mean CFS (2-3F) since the runs from ~3 weeks ago, it has also cooled considerably (~2F) for Dec since just 10 days ago. I’m wondering if this is related to the 35-40 day @Stormchaserchuck1typical cooling lag for the E US after an SSW this time of year: CFS 10 day mean from 10 days ago: torchy Latest CFS 10 day mean for Dec: ~2F colder E US: not torchy

but the stratosphere!

glad we don't live there if you are fortunate today, your travels will take you beyond the dullness of your locale