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Just met a couple from Bethel , ME at the hotel bar here in Nashua. Dudes a chef at Sunday River . Good guy. I told him to watch out for you and Wolfie . He’s also a Yanks fan FTW

I don't see a meaningful trade happening. I mean, who is actually available that will have a big impact? Simmons? Crosby? No chance. They got what they got and will have to live with it. Why the hell is Ojabo still on this team? EDC has done a poor job with this roster overall.

Eh, I see the symbol Saturday night on NWS P&C forecast.

Yeah but I mean...you can't expect needle moving on the FA market at this point in the season, lol If any needle moving happens it'll have to be via trade--and we still have a week to go for that.

Love the confidence but have my doubts To add according to the post by GAWX earlier the IOD normalized was positive in 1967

flakes for you on the GFS

An AO-/NAO-/PNA+ blocking regime is in place. As a result, an extended period of cooler than normal weather will prevail through the end of the month. Highs tomorrow will top out in the upper 50s tomorrow. It will then turn even cooler during the weekend. Temperatures will reach the lower and middle 50s. The unseasonably cool weather will continue into at least the middle of next week. There is a possibility that the closing days of October into the opening days of November could experience a significant rain event. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.6°C for the week centered around October 15. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through mid-winter. The SOI was +17.47 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.527 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 51% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 57.8° (0.2° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.9° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

lol nitpicking. It's a super LR mean. Follow the flow- as advertised there is a mechanism for cold air delivery- number 1 ingredient for snow.

Pretty confident you're gonna need a bigger boat. Anyway, these oscillations happened over the summer, as well....it recovered. Additionally, 2008 was not only the last year with this type of warm pool in the western subsurface, but also the last IOD that was this well defined. Coincidence?? It's probably at least somewhat of a protective factor against a premature demise. Anyone know what the IOD was like in 1967?

Going to be a long, Long winter at 10 days +

I equate this IOD event to something similar like 2019/20 season. That IOD event was on par to some the most intense Nino events we have seen in the last ~30 years (1997/98, and 2015/16) yet when it came to oceanic temps we hit weak Nino status that year. If you look at the subsurface during this time you also had a downwelling kelvin wave in September and October making it look like we were about to really see this event go. I think the IOD in this case simply made it so the Nina like conditions stayed around just enough versus us pushing into weak Nino territory this year. I will say though subsurface on this event is deteriorating rather fast though there is a small chance we hit a trimonthly of about -0.6.

Sharpen that western CONUS ridge up a bit more and I'm all in.

Blerg. I thought I cross pollinated this in the winter thread.

Moving this discussion here. If this is the general longwave pattern we see for winter.. sold.

Was a pleasant day today. Had a low of 36 before a breeze set in and the temp rose. Had a high today of 65 and a current temp of 57. Been a beeezy day today so the winds going to have to subside before we can really drop.

Lots of potential but extreme uncertainty. Crazy run to run differences. 18z GFS with a strong low

GEFS well west at hr78

Euro FTW Jamaica is screwed

Still a lot for models to sort out. Anything is on the table

18z GFS came west a bit still ots but big changes.. GEFS further west so far by a good bit

The one feature you like to see on the LR ens guidance and the extended products is the advertised persistent Aleutian trough and downstream PNA ridge. Not Nina-like. We shall see how it plays out going forward. eta- Continuing this in the winter thread. More appropriate there.

Ravens sign Carl Lawson. Eh, mid. Not likely gonna move the needle much on pressuring the QB.

Jamaica will disrupt the core if it moves directly over it. 20 miles south or north and it may actually help consolidate the core and intensify faster. Also the eastern part has the highest terrain.

Couple of very, very early thoughts as we continue to slide through autumn: 1.) Seems like the Euro OP midrange QPF bias beyond HR 150 is real. 2.) Long range warm ups may be head fakes. Also, as @mitchnick has observed it's good to see a persistent trough over Japan. 3.) I have no expectations that we're going to see some SECS or HECS this winter, but man it'd be nice to get a forum wide 6" - 10" event.