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Add 2021-2022 to the list of -ENSO/-QBO...forgot that one. That Aleutian ridge looks about as flat as Pablo Sabdoval's waistline after the Sox signed him in 2012.

DCA: 100F IAD: 99F BWI: 101F RIC: 101F

Morning convection is a good indicator for afternoon severe? @weatherwiz

Perhaps the most severe storm since I've lived at this address 20 minutes ago. Miraculously, we did not lose power, but watched two trees topple in a froth of rain and quarter sized hail roaring so loud that the multi-pulsing flickers of lightning could not be heard. I looked at radar and saw one thunderstorm cell ... everyone else to edge of the scan range was spared. It's since expanded some and elongated... Good morning! haha

Dewy and steamy inland thru tomorrow thankfully

End of next week should have a few days 85-90

Not as much as the other day thankfully. Some of it is near surface

Euro with the fail for Saturday after trying to flood for days. MAGA models got that one.

I had assumed that the Canadian Smoke was a major contributor to the Air Quality index.

He was definitely wrong about the -WPO (as was I)...that part didn't work out. It was all EPO..I expected the opposite, too, incidentally.

Is there smoke in the sky? The color of the Sun looks off.

Temp 70 and dews dropping. We uninstall.

Yea, its not that I didn't believe you...I'm just not sure I buy it as being a huge factor, which isn't to say it has zero creedence...its just that its something I feel is easily overrided by other factors. But again...will I be shocked if this season has a flat Aleutian ridge? No, at least not at this early juncture.

We run the sprinklers. I’ll take the euro rain for Monday. Heat is cancelled anyways for awhile.

Going to be a booming weekend!

Unfortunately I can’t find HM’s blog anymore but here is Eric Webb:

And your wife is still sticking around huh?

Well, 2011-2012 was a Modoki La Nina and I'm willing to bet that much of the balance of that data set was, as well. I'll sell that...that isn't to say that I am necessarily sold on poleward ridging or a good winter...I just don't buy the QBO connection. I buy the weaker/easterly La Nina poleward ridging data.....2000-2001, 2005-2006 and 2017-2018 are three relatively recent -QBO negative ENSO seasons that featured plenty of poleward Aleutian ridging.

Could start to see Stein setting back in on modeling earlier this week . Lawns will start torching pike south next week in heat end of week

HM, in the extensive blog he wrote up right after the 11-12 winter titled “GLAAMOUROUS”. Also, Eric Webb actually touched on this association a few times last fall and cited a bunch of studies on it

Always the bridesmaid. Missed the cores to south and east. At least the pollen got washed away.

I don't know where you get this from....

Ha

If we see a cold-ENSO (cold-neutral/weak La Niña), along with the almost certain -QBO, I’m not so sure we see the strong poleward ridging that we did last winter in the PAC. The +QBO/cold-ENSO we had last winter supported the poleward ridging we saw. -QBO/cold-ENSO favors a flatter, equatorial PAC ridge. As far as the arctic and Atlantic, I would agree with you. The solar/geomag states, QBO evolution and the North Atlantic SSTA profile, at this very early stage obviously, would seemingly not be very supportive of big high latitude blocking in those domains