All Activity

Smoke / haze has cleard NJ and most of the 5 boroughs slowly fading east. Tomorrow clouds from the mess around N-FL - GA could drift north - we'll see if any impacts on us as a potential limiting factor on highs.

I wonder if the K Index isn't widely used anymore just because of the advancement of additional tools and indices? Another one that rings a bell is the Craven Brooks Sig Severe Index or the SWEAT Index. IIRC, the K Index was actually quite decent. But now everyone just runs to supecell composite/sig tor parameter and looks at the hazard type on the SHARPpy soundings

I’ve forgotten more 90’s rap than any that you’ve ever known. That was my hey day of rap. Back when it was good. Not the shit out today

Noon Round up New Brnswck: 82 EWR: 82 LGA: 80 ACY: 80 NYC: 79 TEB: 79 PHL: 79 TTN: 79 BLM: 78 ISP: 74 JFK: 72

82/54 here.

Back in the heady days of college ... there was a convective index known as the K. The K index ...basically it's a calculation that describes how quickly an unstable environment blows its load. I just never hear it mentioned anywhere over the years. A high K index ends up being a self destructive convection sequencing more lateral rains ... Low is like a 4000 SB-CAPE sitting under -3 CIN. Oh here it is, K is George's indiex ( or K ) and the Ts and Td are at respective sigma levels ( pressure) K-index values vs. Thunderstorm Probability Less than 20 None 20 to 25 Isolated thunderstorms 26 to 30 Widely scattered thunderstorms 31 to 35 Scattered thunderstorms Above 35 Numerous thunderstorms

WPC shifted the expected heavier rainfall over the next week westward over the past 24 hours...yesterday the LSV was in the purples, today it's moving west!

Was 81 now down to 78 with a breeze. Beautiful day. Being a bit further south makes the hot days more bearable

Twenty past noon and 86 in my backyard. Might seriously make a run at the first 90 of the summer season today.

82/61 here.

He know nothing about 90s rap.

Very smoky 71 on the south shore, 81 at my PWS on the north shore.

Barrier Islands on LI including southern Queens are all in the mid 60s while a few miles north it's around 80 or 81 degrees.

Deep summer today? Maybe the hazy look..but its also like 75/54 here. Tomorrow should be closer

ACE is probably a better metric. Either way, there is a clear SLP pattern of Atlantic tripole for active seasons Apr-May vs the opposite. We've had a little more +NAO/+AO this Apr-May.

We are locked and loaded for quite sometime kid . We sweat

All this MCS activity and convection along the front is causing some major model chaos. Part of the issue too is the degree of convection is so extensive that this will cause some big wiggles in the placement of the boundary throughout the day today and tomorrow. So it may seem at times the front is farther south and east that modeled, but as convection wanes a bit in the overnight the front position corrects back northwest a bit. Makes it very challenging on what to expect here in terms of frontal timing and placement.

That's the way I'm leaning too, but it wouldn't surprise me if the decadal started moving less positive 1st month in out of 4.. and the N. Atlantic SST index is slightly negative right now, Like -0.2

LOL, I know that is true. Although we had an event in late May 2004 (at least locally) under sunny skies and light NE flow with some great aftn SVR. Mostly hail, but I was shocked. But I get it...typically does happen. GFS has the boundary a bit more to the north, but the GFS won't resolve the NNE leakage too.

“Only” 76 at home at noon. Smoke cutting temps a bit?

It looks like Apr to May this is the 3rd biggest move since 1948. The other two were trending negative to positive.. all 4 biggest moves since 2014. 1. 2024 -23.42 -6.52 2. 2015 -24.38 -12.33 3. 2025 6.94 -4.59 4. 2014 7.15 -2.81

Thanks. That shower here late last night was just a quick, isolated rain. But late this morning it has been much more widespread in SE GA.

mm kinda (personally) don't wanna see that nam set up. If we lift mu caped air over a boundary ... regardless of kind, it fuzzes out into a putrid warm rain with embedded orange flickers and distant thunder

We had a G4 solar storm 2 days ago, and G3 the day before that. This Winter is going to be another good data point for high solar.

That stuff makes me real nervous. I get real paranoid when being outside when thunderstorms start getting within a certain distance. That is one thing I think that would freak me out most about chasing in the Plains...at least here there is a good chance there are taller objects around you, but out there you are the tallest object