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Because we obviously know the caveats this far out. We don’t need to hear it every event. There’s only one emo poster here that plays mental meteorological gymnastics in the extended and he lives at 990ft.

The only way to do that is with ample amounts of snow. I pledge not to post Euro runs cutting 980mb lows through Albany and burying me and PF

Yep, this time of year especially we need a strong cold air source on storm day, if that high slips east winds turn onshore and it’s game over.

Brian, you know what I mean…so if you know, then tell me what this will be next Tuesday/Wednesday? You can’t. And That doesn’t mean we don’t discuss…of course we do, but what’s wrong with saying we don’t know? Why do you always have to be such a wise ass?

i’m trying to remember a Thanksgiving or Christmas week in the last 20 years when we have not had a day that was 58 with rain and mist. Let’s see if these winds fuck up the parade tomorrow

I anxiously await maps of NYC jacks while SNE gets scraped

December 3rd will probably be a good sample of what the storm tracks will do this winter. The last 7 winters we have seen a very dominant and fast Northern Steam of the Pacific Jet lead to three dominant storm tracks. Track #1 has been a Great Lakes cutter leading an amplified Southeast ridge and mostly rain near the coast. In this case there is enough separation in the fast Pacific flow for one system to really amplify pumping the Southeast ridge on the day of the storm. Track #2 featured just enough wave separation for an I-78 to I-84 hugger storm track. This has been a snow to sleet and rain scenario along the coast. A bit of a WAR or Western Atlantic ridge on storm day. Track #3 has seen kicker troughs coming into Western North America suppressing the Southern Stream storm tracks. The Benchmark track with a record number of KU snowstorms which has dominated from 2010 to 2018 has been largely absent leading to the record low snowfall last 7 seasons. This has been a result of the much stronger Northern Stream of the Pacific Jet since 2018-2019. If we can get the storm track on December 3rd to show some small deviation, then maybe we can see at least some small improvement this winter. We would want to see a deep enough coastal development near the Benchmark to have some hope in snowfall improvement this winter. Since 1995-1996 we have had 15 La Niña winters as defined by the RONI index. 14 out of 15 of those winters followed a repeating pattern which has been common the last 30 years. EWR, NYC, and LGA December snowfall pattern repeated throughout the entire winter. The Decembers with under 4” of snowfall at those stations went on to below average seasonal snowfall. With the Decembers over 4” or snow featuring average to naive average snowfall. You might ask how can this work out over 90% of the time? My guess is that La Ninas tend to show what they are capable of early on in the season. Plus as our climate has warmed it has lead to more repeating and persistent patterns. So I view this December to winter snowfall relationship more as a marker of a deeper underlying shared pattern rather than something that is directly causing the outcome.

Grinch storm should help

I’m one giant scab.

And now the next few days will be the geo battles where folks from different areas will only post model output that buries them.

It can always always go poof.

We probably shouldn’t even discuss it. Just wait until the day comes and see what happens.

The great promise month of December just got better not worse. Plenty of cold air and an active storm track and signs that late month will not warm up.

Picked up .57" of rain last evening. Very nice. Intrigued for next week...

And the miller A/whole coastal idea could still just go poof too…that is tenuous at best currently…so we’ll see where it goes from here?

There’s a lot of scar tissue in this forum. But with scar tissue, you just have to break it up and scrape it away.

And you would think that northern Greenland is a less suppressive for most of New England

Still scarred from last December.

Miller A always a bit risky the farther north we get. Could be a problem up here, but you’re pretty close to the coast.

Obviously we don’t…it’s morphing each day. We laugh..but it’s the truth. A couple days ago, a coastal wasn’t even entertained. Now it’s a possibility…there ya go. We didn’t know. And sure it can all shit the bed, but at this juncture, we don’t know.

What I love is how the model hopium triggers amnesia—masking the fact that we’ve been on the cusp of epic pattern many times before in this decade. Better this than seeing Canada torched and a stationary trough to Baja. No doubt about that.

The Canadian high on the 06z Euro is a tad east for my liking. That setup can erode the CAD situation with prolonged southeast winds. Would like to see that backed up further west into the St. Lawrence River Valley.

We just don’t know?

Sure..but it’s not currently, and wasn’t yesterday either.

This 6z GFS for mid next week is real nice. Let’s hope 12z continues in this direction.