All Activity

44 degrees this morning.

AI gfs looks good here

Finally some steady rain overnight. Still raining. 0.82" total so far-since Sunday

No rain needed down here

That was a glue factory performance by euro op.

Brrrr, chilly out there this morning. 53 degrees in little ferry.

Euro shit itself going hundreds of miles. AI ticked NE too. Overall weaker trends. Was kind of surprised.

6z ICON also looks good

6Z RGEM came west a bit and a little stronger.. still SE of the cape though

39.2 we take! seeing some 36s on wunderground.. maybe some patchy frost around?

Latest run feel like a winter storm modeling; models lose the storm to allow local bridge jumping only for them to bring the storm back a d become a nowcast event

We have a treatment plan, as long as my insurance doesn't interfere because it's a bit expensive. I started on Prednisone, which is normal, and then I will begin a Remicade infusion regimen every 8 weeks after two starter doses. The Prednisone is a quick hitter to knock back the inflammation, then the Remicade, a biologic medicine, should hopefully keep it in remission long term. We'll see how it goes, but the Prednisone seems to be working already. Unfortunately, there's no cure for Crohn's, so long term remission is my best hope.

6z NAM is meh

Not really 3-4 days out...the storm is only 48-60 hours from forming. Whatever impacts we have could be 72-96 hours away but we're getting into useful range of the NAM imo since the phasing that so many Euro runs had was supposed to happen in the Friday-Saturday time frame.

FWIW, the GFS operational has brought back a CAG system in the midrange, lifting it into the GOM the past few runs. The 00z was more pronounced with a hurricane.

0z seemed pretty meh overall

Gfs LOL terrible model At least it nailed our blizzard

Gfs is a terrible model

Yeah but think about it: If that happens we will have what we haven't had in 11 years: 1-2 feet of snow! You realize that, given the two ninas forthcoming after this winter, we have zero chance of seeing that until 2029-30 at the earliest, right? Yeah I would take one big snow in a millisecond!

The new 00Z EC-AIFS has become more aggressive with the cyclone. At F78, 06Z Saturday Sep. 26, it's down to about 989 mb. Compare that with the 18Z AIFS at roughly the same point, which was around 997 to 988 mb depending on the exact six-hour frame. More importantly, look at the position: the 00Z AIFS still has the center much farther west than the 00Z GFS, sitting roughly east of the Delmarva/NJ corridor rather than racing harmlessly toward the open Atlantic. And look at the structure. The isobars are extremely tightly packed on the western and northwestern side, right toward the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England. That's a very substantial pressure gradient between the cyclone and the 1026 mb high to the north. The deepening sequence on this 00Z AIFS is also worth watching. We had approximately 999 mb at F54, and now 989 mb at F78. That's 10 mb in 24 hours, so this particular 24-hour interval is not bombogenesis. But the cyclone is already quite deep by Saturday morning, and what happens during the next 12 to 24 hours is the fascinating part.