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Michael Lowry didn’t mention it, but the UKMET did even worse with Melissa than the GFS with it having her very weak on many runs early on, which then caused the model to keep it much further SW than the consensus including several runs of a weak TC into Nicaragua that I posted here. UKMET is such a hit or miss model. It absolutely shined for Imelda and both landfalls for Ian. What did its progs for Imelda and Ian have in common? It was the furthest to the RIGHT. What did its progs have in common for its big busts for Melissa, Laura, and some others? It was the furthest to the LEFT.

That came out of nowhere

Quite the windstorm developing overnight to hit southeast Newfoundland (Avalon Pen) on Tuesday, winds could be near 150 km/hr in gusts. Low deepens to 945 mb as it approaches the Terra Nova area. I wonder if this is a sign of explosive development potential for lows later on in the approaching winter season in the general area? Then the next one along on Wednesday night develops rapidly off Nova Scotia and could bring 2-4" snowfalls to Atlantic Canada and eastern Maine towards conclusion of storm precip Thursday morning, but it looks like just a few wind blown flurries for New England otherwise, maybe scattered 0.5 to 1.0 inch snow over higher terrain .... are Lake Champlain snow squalls possible? ... there are some unusually cold air masses for this early showing up.

Hail.

The GFS continues to show a hurricane near Central America in the next 300 hrs. Likely more 992 mb than 892 mb though...

I was just going back and looking through the snow totals by month and year for BWI, and I notice that the official records show a trace of snow in August of 2015 and June of 2016. Does anyone remember these? Seems like it has to be a mistake.

I am losing sleep waiting for your first snow map of the season.

If/do we take the NAM at face value…

LOL, yeah, this is NOT my year. I have no issue in some form of a penalty, it just slipped my brain. Maybe it was because I was home! I remembered twice this year to get picks in before the date while away but being home, it just went *poof*.

Love the Halal place by you

I have lost track of what late penalties I applied to whom in the past so, given the fact your position is identical to mine (hopelessly adrift of the leaders) I won't bother to penalize this one. If we keep going in 2026, I am going to have to bring late penalties up to date with current practices and expectations, what I said in the past was going to result in quite a few very large late penalties in 2025 but there are some forecasters here who are never late and they probably feel a bit put out by overly lenient policies too. The problem for me is, the contest is well supported by a loyal group but at the same time we have pretty close to the bare minimum number participating to make it worthwhile, and I am trying to balance the fairness aspect with the existence altogether of the contest. Anyway, same goes for StormchaserChuck who has not posted yet, he's in the chase-the-chase pack with you and me, it really doesn't matter much if we reduce our scores even further, any one of us could win November and December and still finish 700 points back of Tom and hudsonvalley21 and 300 back of the chase pack behind the leaders. I am just trying to stay clear of Normal at this point. General note -- all scoring updated and checked over, back in the thread before November forecasts.

Yeah Nam not enthused right now.

Know all those areas very well. I live just NE of Rt 110 and Jericho Tpke intersection.

I’d be beyond thrilled with 30” here. My immediate part of LI is often close with coastal CT for snow. I’m thinking less especially if we get another zonked Pacific Jet dominated winter but hopefully we have some good opportunities come to reality.

Yes…cuz Halloween wind here was a joke, like most of the time. So it’ll be interesting to see if this is real?

Oh I see. Rapidly developing low. If this signal remains at 12z tomorrow, then we get excited.

Whitman has good pickleball courts now We played Commack in football on Saturday. Very nice school

Well obviously cuz this front is tonight, and this supposed wind event isn’t until Wednesday night. So what will be causing the wind Wednesday night?

Fangs and sharp teeth primarily

Nothing regarding this front

So what is this supposed high wind event having to do with?

Sounds like some graupel pinging the windows.

Along with gfs

Very sudden intense downpour. Woke me up.

Everything..it’s a different year..this isn’t last year, and certainly not the year before. So get ready.