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At 120hrs, we're all still in the game. That's really all that can be taken at this point, and that a decent place to be for a 12/2 threat.

personally, given the pattern, i would find something suppressed and washed out more likely than something as amped as the GFS

The mountains get snow this run

Actually might even be close to the mix line here

Rains to Maines

Textbook snowstorm for here

Better TPV push and it might be okay. I like seeing a stronger storm… one day that’ll work out for us.

Way amped

What difference 12 hours makes rainy this run

18z GFS

Yeah, gfs has been trending more and more amped the last 4-8 runs. Mostly rain for us. We’ll see if this breaks the deamplification trend that’s been around for 2 years, or if that gets us back in the game.

I'll be 40 in a couple months and seems like yesterday I was 21

Gfs continues to be the most amped model. Inland does really well. Rain for the coast.

It’s raining DC at 138, mixy further west. Might flip eventually

Could be, idk yet. You may be further ahead of me.

At 126hrs, there's a surface High of 1029 in northern Iowa that wasn't ther at 12z. That's good.

GTH Outlook Discussion Last Updated - 11/25/25 Valid - 12/03/25 - 12/16/25 Recent observations of tropical convection and the global tropical circulation indicate that the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) remains active, with the enhanced convective phase over the West Pacific. Little eastward propagation was evident on the RMM-based MJO index during the past two weeks, however, fluctuations in amplitude are indicative of interference from other modes of variability. The biggest disruptor to the ongoing MJO evolution is the low-frequency La Niña base state, which is preventing upper-level easterlies, low-level westerlies, and widespread convection from crossing the equatorial central Pacific. Enhanced convection is crossing the central Pacific away from the Equator, however, especially along the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) region. Time-longitude analyses of the low-level zonal wind field reveals two distinct features propagating eastward: a slowly evolving envelope of westerly anomalies that has progressed from the Indian Ocean in October to the far western Pacific by mid- to late November, and a faster moving signal, likely Kelvin wave activity, that is circumnavigating the globe. As this latter signal comes into phase with the slower evolving signal, westerly wind bursts have occurred, followed by a period of increasing disorganization. Dynamical model forecasts are in good agreement that a period of constructive interference between these two signals will occur in late November and early December, resulting in a disruption of the La Niña trade wind regime over the west-central Pacific, and a rapid amplification of the RMM-based MJO index in Phase-7. Beyond this period, the faster moving mode becomes more unpredictable and may not well capture an easterly phase of the Kelvin wave, but the slower-evolving low-level westerlies are favored to continue impacting the Pacific basin into mid-December. A potential second enhancement of the MJO signal is clearly depicted in both the GEFS and ECMWF model systems during late December over the East Pacific, likely tied to another period of constructive interference between the slowly propagating signal and the Kelvin wave activity. Based on this guidance, the MJO is favored to remain active, and may become the dominant contributor to the global tropical convective pattern during early December. Pacific MJO events teleconnect well with the midlatitude circulation during the Boreal winter season, and may contribute to a reinforcement of ridging across western North America and troughing over eastern North America. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghaz/index.php

Some said 40's...cold press..models shifting...we just don't know...yada

Gonna be way too amped. So EURO and GFS in opposite worlds.

Still stronger at 123 hrs which is translating to a better precip shield than 12z

Regarding today’s Euro Weeklies, it’s the most bullish (i.e., colder changes vs prior run) overall in a long time in the NE and SE. I’m not saying they’re cold in the SE, but they are colder than they were/not as mild or not mild overall. I don’t have time to post details right now, but y’all check it out! Or someone else please post the maps. Edit: Every one of the 5 weeks is colder and/or less mild in both the NE and SE US vs yesterday’s run including one dramatically colder week. That hasn’t happened in quite awhile.

18z GFS might be good.. I wish other models would join the party..

At 114hrs, 18z Gfs vort is stronger than 12z fwiw.

Down to 39. Steady march to freezing.

69 in a couple months. WTF golden years my ass