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I think that it would probably take at least VEI-7 volcanic eruption like Tambora for a short term interruption before the warming resumed again. But those type of eruptions have been very rare. Plus we don’t really have that much skill with long range volcanic forecasting. Maybe some of the board volcano experts can chime in here. https://www.theclimatebrink.com/p/volcanic-cooling

My stance on the AMO is similar to that of the PDO....If we get well into next decade with no change, then we'll truly know. I know many folks may think that they know now, but they don't.

It still give a salute when I drive through Sturbridge on 84 after 6/1/11. You can still see the scar in the tree growth on top of that hill to the west of the highway.

Friday is pretty interesting...I mean it sucks that H5 temps are only around -5C but dews 73-75 should help compensate for weak mlvl lapse rates but that is some pretty good shear with ~2000 MLCAPE.

wow Ray, so this a 40-45 year cycle? at this rate the next one will be around 2037-2042 lol. note that the current peak is lower than the previous peak, maybe thats why we have not seen as many east coast hurricanes (and long duration heatwaves) as we did back in the 30s, 40s and 50s? The last flip happened around 1967, and our last really hot summer in that period was 1966.

Plenty of summer heat and dews to go for all heading into and thru Augdewst

Not surprising given history...

Didn't meant to imply they don't initialize with the same data but the backbone behind it all is the quality of the data being ingested, the amount of data, and then the physics/calculus operations being performed and if there are errors or poor performance on this, well AI or not, the modeled forecast is going to struggle. I really can't wait though for quantum computing!

Jburns will be missed. He was a good guy and I respected him a lot. Condolences to his family

I know most speak of "tipping" points with respect to when the current climo succumbs to CC, but I also wonder if there is a "tipping point" for when the earth's natural balancing mechanisms/cycles trigger a push back against said influences of CC....ie, maybe ultimately a flip to -AMO and +PDO is realized.

The model forecasts have the -AMO getting overwhelmed by the fast Atlantic warming. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01804-x Observed North Atlantic sea-surface temperatures are modulated by a recurrent alternation of anomalously warm and cold interdecadal phases known as Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. Here we use observations and a multi-model ensemble of climate simulations to demonstrate an ongoing acceleration of North Atlantic surface warming, which implies a smaller contribution of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability to 21st century North Atlantic sea-surface temperature anomalies than previously thought. Future projections of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability from realistic climate simulations are poorly constrained, yet a relaxation to a neutral phase by the mid-21st century emerges as the most probable evolution of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. In the simulations, the mitigating effects of a less likely upcoming cold phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability are overwhelmed by fast North Atlantic surface warming, which is robustly projected to persist in upcoming decades independent of emission scenarios. Sustained North Atlantic surface warming is therefore expected to continue in the near future.

Every attempt at a -AMO has failed miserably since 2015

I'll give this a watch tonight!

With PIT officially dropping to 58 this morning, we avoid tying the record at the airport site for warmest July minimum, which was 59 in 1955. Now back to our regularly scheduled programming of heat, humidity and eventually daily rain chances for the weekend.

I think it will also cause more political unrest and more conflict too. There's a strong correlation between hotter weather and more violence.

I agree. Covid did a lot to muddy the underlying climate driven trend —appeal to move to warmer regions with shorter cold/flu season and less restrictions —but it’s becoming more apparent with that shock behind us.

Incredibly sad to hear this. Thank you for sharing.

Ya it's coming I thought it would of started earlier but looks to start soon.. we refresh

It seems to be delayed, but it has to happen eventually? Maybe a modified version of one?

It's why we need geoengineering John. Blue Green Algae are/were the greatest geoengineers of all time and without them none of us would be here today.

Oh no, that’s sad to hear. Thank you for sharing the news.

Unless you live in Tamaqua...lol

we're already seeing those mass migrations now, it's already happening

Yes, the key word is *gradual* and it's not just our need to adapt but the need for the entire food chain to adapt too. We have had both a hot house Earth and an ice ball Earth in the past but the changes always took place over millions of years.

No threads yet on the following: Fairly widespread SVR late Fri. Spot 5" totals 18z Fri-06z Mon, inclusive of several short duration FF events, primarily Sunday. This may include embedded iso svr. Last chance for 100F this year Newark-NYC seems like this Friday but above normal mean of 90+ occurrences at hand for KEWR as 90+ reoccurs Saturday and Tuesday July 29. Tuesday: nw flow svr event. August: seasonable variability again as per July with a cooler than normal first week, then seemingly wetter and warmer than normal last 3 weeks of Aug as the w Atlantic ridge builds in response to the strong 5H heat ridge near the Rockies, possibly edging west toward the end of the month. Support from 00z/22 GEFS qpf through 700+ hours as seen on Pivotal and spot check of ECMWF INT and the July 17 CPC 1 month outlook. This suggests to me probably no more 100 at KEWR but plenty of 90-95 after the first week of August. Will check in tomorrow