All Activity

I saw that and the NAM Ginx posted looks good here even into RI; will have to see if that trend continues today.

FWIW 8z HRRR is even further north and east now compared to 6z

If near warning snow is making it to Boston, a chunk of what my backyard gets even will likely be sleet. I know other models are colder but we’ve seen them verify too cold in these type events. It’s clipper like but behaving like a SWFE with overrunning into cold air. Like that or not, take what you will but historically SWFE is not good for NYC. It’s not your typical SWFE for sure but these overrunning deals so often pull the rug out by trending north at the end. We’re at the point where we just have to see what happens. Hopefully we get good precip that doesn’t shoot over way NE and we’re not waiting for hours in the city as it warms in the mid levels.

BOX still not biting east of the river, showing 2-5 most places.

Just given the cold dense dry air in place I would give a lot more credence to the GFS/RGEM than the northern models.

ICON looks slightly better than 0z. GFS and RRFS look very similar to their previous runs. All solid for most of the area! Gotta watch the radar, obs, and HRRR today to see if the northeast shift is real or not.

it went south a little

GFS also held its ground

The 6z HRRR and esp NAM should concern snow lovers from NYC south and west. The surface and mid-level low centers continue to tick further northeast. That's getting heavy snow into SVT now, and even BOS on the NAM. That's a yellow caution flag at minimum. On the other hand, the 6z RGEM held steady or even ticked a hair south and wetter locally.

6z NAM IJD

Sure would like to see a 25-50 mile slide south

Thats not a warm look as we get into the the end of the first week of Jan

6z NAM & Latest HRRR

23 in the Bronx. About 12 hours 'til showtime.

And 3k

6z HRRR also north

Man do we pray!

6Z NAM zonked again.. warning snows even here

Dear lord, I’m going to keep quiet.

Buyt this should be more or less from the East Asia winter monsoon trough sorta speaking this shifts H from the Bering Sea into Siberia,Mongolia

Clear. 15.8F

Wind and lake effect have some potential to make things interesting locally on Monday. Not huge amounts, but wind-driven snow and cold. Beyond that, the Euro at least has a couple fantasy storms.

Let's go

Yes as Will said 12/14/95 is a farther south version of this. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/dec-14-1995 The first one that came to mind in terms of sfc low track and overall qpf trajectory is 01/14/04. Though contrary to 12/14/95 this is a farther north version of that one. And synoptically at H85 it doesn't appear to be an analog on the list for CIPS. https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/jan-14-15-2004