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Always hard to tell with you lol. The point stands.

Had a brief lull now dumping again and sticking to pavement

It might even be dead

...it was a joke

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Pavement a little to warm but grass is getting covered

Euro AI is a colder version of the OP at the end of the run. Big -EPO and the cold spills east.

That's why one should use a series of runs, not any single run. Below is the latest December monthly forecast.

Niña expected to weaken by then.

If this keeps up we might end up with our first inch ground covered!!

Click bait. WB CFS is useless. That's a single run. That model is volatile af and changes like the wind. Only somewhat useful when averaged over several runs. If you look at it on Tropical Tidbits it is the average of the last 12 runs.

I've found that N. Atlantic SSTAs for Wintertime NAO pattern have a real strong correlation the leading May - August. I think later in the Fall and the Winter is more a product of the pattern, but there are pretty high correlation numbers at this time of the year as well. I think the Summer when things stabilize, subsurface temps can be seen in the surface SSTA profile. There is data that allows us to plot a list of 75-analog years to something like following Winter NAO conditions. In May-Aug the correlation goes up to +0.5 (75%)! but in Nov-Dec it's +0.25 (62.5%). Still a pretty strong correlation: You really want to see cold water off the East coast from NC to off of New Foundland. Which I guess we have to some extent. The above map is default positive, so a negative NAO goes to the opposite of those anomalies. The tripole pattern pattern actually holds a future NAO state pretty well. The same tripole pattern works for Jan-Feb to March-Apr NAO, and really throughout the year. Pretty high leading pattern here, given how secondary SSTs are.

Monster flakes now

Buckle up. We get it into April.

What are your thoughts on the SST profile in the NW Atlantic, North Central Atlantic outside of the MJO, QBO and strat in regards to the appearence of the warm, cold, warm tripole shown in this image below ? ( - NAO ) Is it significant, or will it change in a week or two and be meaningless ?

CFS is wacky. It also has a huge ENSO bias. Notice that it runs 4 times a day, that run cited above was 12z today, different from 6z. A few weeks ago they had 90% of the country below average on the 12z run, then the 18z run had 95% of the country above average. I've seen 5-6 runs this year where it had the PNW <-30F for December 2025.. Now long range models are showing a +PNA to start Dec and a ridge going up the west coast or just west of it. The CFS had the same thing last year (-30F in the NW for Dec), and last Dec was +PNA.

Everyone I talk to is already sick of all the windy weather days.

Mod snow fat flakes now

Firat accumulation of the year ground starting to whiten!!!!!!

If the peak is Nov 25-30, history says strong -NAO correlation, based around Dec 30 - Jan 4.

18z GEFS hr384

Agree completely Carvers. Hopefully the Ec Weeklies are just going on lagging the MJO in warm Phases. As you alluded to, sometimes an SSW can foul up a good pattern for us so, may be that too. Models tend to go wonky before one too so, may be that too.

Long range models around the turn of the month are wanting to develop some kind of 500mb low north of Hawaii, +PNA under the -EPO/-WPO. There really no sign of a RNA pattern. That's why I think the 3-4 week CPC outlook put out today, Euro weeklies, and seasonal monthlies for Dec (CFS, CanSips) are wrong having the cold in the Upper Midwest, and a SE ridge, above average in the SE, US, and average in the Mid Atlantic. MJO could be holding strength going into 7-8-1 around the 1st half of December, and I think it's a below average temperature pattern everywhere east of the Rockies, at least for the 1st half of the month.

The West Coast low pressure area has already brought 1.25"-5.0" to San Francisco, 3.0" (3.0 feet?) to the Sierra Nevadas, and 0.3" to Los Angeles. There's much more to come for southern California and the desert. It's kicking the ridge in the middle of the country. Today, Fort Collins was back to 70-75, 75 in Denver, and over 80 in Kansas.

But that would be kinda atypical for a nina, no?