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I was referring to your suburbs remark

The Euro / EPS kept torching us and it never happened. That definitely occurred. Maybe this time we end winter early but I’ll sell

Noted.

Here's the answer I got from AI when I plug in the -1.9F others reported: "Boston's January 2026 weather was 1.9°F below normal, with a monthly mean temperature of 29.4°F compared to the typical average of 29.9°F. The coldest temperatures occurred mid-to-late January, with lows dropping to -13°F on January 26 and -18°F on January 21. Despite the cold, snowfall was moderate, with 10 snowy days recorded, and total precipitation at 1.76 inches, which is 52% of the normal January rainfall. The month began with milder conditions, peaking at 53°F on January 15, but rapidly cooled as the month progressed." They show a mean of 29.4F and an average of 29.9F, a difference of -0.5, hardly -1.9. And Boston certainly didn't get to -13F and -18F during the month. If this is how AI is going to work, I'll never use it again.

If someone else has a better idea for weighting or calculated a winter metric let me know. Looking at the forecast for next week the 14 day period starting 1/24 and ending 2/6 has a great shot at hiting 6.89 which would be in the top 2.5% of all 14 day periods going back to 1890 Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

We didn’t really have that to an extent. This time we have an AK vortex with a conus chinook.

That’s not true

Each time the -NA0 saved us. Why wouldn’t that continue?

It was ugly many times in Dec and it was never right . Always muted as we closed in

I heard the same Comments about early January and we were above normal for two weeks.

Say buckle up enough, the seatbelt will eventually click.

Patterns can easily flip. There’s no reason why this one can’t. EPS was ugly imo. Not sure what to think.

-2.3

No prob. I like the effort you're putting into comparing model forecasts, though.

And after digging out the car.

That’s kind of we’re envisioning. Not that it’s 2015 , but that the cold will win out. It has all winter. Things don’t flip like that generally

For Lancaster, looks like Tuesday is our only chance to get above freezing in the next 7 days at least. If we don't get there and the rest of the week goes as forecast, that would break the existing record of 15 straight days below freezing endured in both 1961 and 1979 with records going back to 1914. Historic cold indeed. https://lancasteronline.com/news/local/lancaster-county-breaks-14-day-streak-of-temperatures-under-freezing-which-last-happened-in-1979/article_fce945ba-f5a3-11e7-92db-938a3f30ea7c.html

I am guessing his reference to the forecasted PV disruption would not effect us until the beginning of March

Picture from my security camera this morning.

No I didn't, thank you for reminding me.

Lol. You should have heard the Lewisville, TX people after the sleet storm last weekend: WHY HASN’T MY NEIGHBORHOOD HAD THIS REMOVED BY NOW??!! Well, first this doesn’t happen in North TX all that often here and we literally don’t have any plows. And second it’s a sheet of sleet that is compacted too low for a plow even if there was one. lol.

Not necessarily. We will prob build up some pretty strong Feb negative departures the first week-plus…so even if we torch for 5-7 days, that may just get us back near normal or maybe not even if the torch isn’t super strong. Ideally it’s just a relaxation closer to climo. If it was 2015, we’d get 2 feet of overrunning while the rest of the country torches during the relaxation.

Relatives and friends reporting 8-9" in Onslow County, some drifts up to 5' in Carteret County on the coast.

That's what I get for going to AI for the answer.