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Looks like the rain chances disappeared for Sunday in my area. 3 weeks now without a drop.

00Z EPS now has all members, 100% with reversals. GEFS still sitting around 70% AI ENS climbing after not being interested, close to 80% now, but I don't know how well that does with events like this either.

Me neither. It's beautiful, and I'm loving it! On the flip side, the crazy southwest desert weather continues as well. While this might be somewhat overdone (the ECMWF) every global model shows at least 2" of rain for the Phoenix metro area between now and next Monday night.

0Z EPS has a storm signal in about 8 days

That would be fun.. to bad its the CMC 9 days out

Normal for BOS is around 11/10. I think I went below freezing 10/18.

That’s actually not far above climo. I think the normal high for BOS mid November is low 50s. It’s still mid 40s in the opening days of December. Know thou climate.

The Arctic N of 80N 2m anomalies have been back to their typical autumn warmer than 1958-2002 averages after a short dip to just BN at the end of Sept:

The surface-level weather effects from a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event in the United States typically last for 2 to 6 weeks on average. [1] While a major SSW event drastically disrupts the polar vortex high up in the stratosphere, its effects do not impact ground weather immediately. Instead, there is a 10- to 20-day time lag as the atmospheric changes ripple downward to the surface, causing the jet stream to become wavy and unstable. [1, 2, 3] Once those effects arrive, the impacts on U.S. weather patterns include: Prolonged Cold Spells: Rather than a brief cold snap, the weak polar vortex patterns lock in atmospheric blocks that can extend below-average temperatures for several weeks. [1, 2] Increased Storminess: A wavy jet stream frequently shifts the storm track, increasing the likelihood of extreme precipitation and winter storms. [1, 2] Regional Variation: An SSW event does not guarantee uniform cold across the entire country. For instance, a collapsed or split polar vortex often unleashes severe cold into regions like the Northern Plains or the Midwest, while other regions like the Eastern Seaboard can occasionally experience temporary warming depending on exactly where the cold air mass migrates. Also 2009 -2010 featured a moderate to Strong El Nino BUT not as strong as this one. Along with that there was an SSW event in mid to late November and we ended up with 12 Inches of snow in December in NYC and January we had a break and ended up with 2 inches BUT we all remember what happened in February 2010 -36 Inches of snow in NYC. So 2009- 2010 is now an analog year. [1, 2, 3] The previous expectations of a back loaded winter by many might turn into a front and back loaded winter with a break in the middle in January - time will tell

I have come to believe strongly that "high uncertainty" means an absolute certainty that an 80% chance of precip will be manifested as wind and clouds, with a slight and temporary increase in humidity, for an hour or two.

I’ve seen talk of it in the ENSO forum and from Eric Webber that 97-98 is very much on the table. Expect to see my name near the top of the snowfall contest spreadsheet.

is this one storm or the entire winter?

Brewers were the best team the entire year. They might have the best bullpen in the history of the MLB.