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Gfs is good

Like a tropical system with banding.

Coastal flood products are just being issued watches and stuff.

makes sense in a way-the meso's are wrapping it up more where as the less resolution globals arent-a weak storm is likely to get further north

18z gfs looks very similar to the ai cones too too about the shore of Long Island then decides to head to times square

Good thing the rain comes in waves instead of a continuous downpour. Will help with flooding.

18z gfs ai still doing is loop over Montauk. Not doing what the rgem or nam did.

Bust calls incoming. Typical me, I’ll let others start them, and I’ll join later on. Doh

rainfall wise-the RGEM has trended south some-heaviest now south of LI

18Z GFS well south 42hrs out, yet not rotating to the coastline.

Delaware Beaches- 1257 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026 ...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY... ...HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY... ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... * WHAT...For the Coastal Flood Warning, one to two feet of inundation above ground level in low-lying areas near shorelines and tidal waterways. For the High Surf Advisory, large breaking waves of up to 12 feet in the surf zone. For the High Rip Current Risk, dangerous rip currents. * WHERE...Delaware Beaches. * WHEN...For the Coastal Flood Warning, until 2 AM EDT Saturday. For the High Surf Advisory, until 8 PM EDT Saturday. For the High Rip Current Risk, through Saturday evening. * IMPACTS...At this level, widespread roadway flooding occurs in coastal and bayside communities and along inland tidal waterways. Many roads become impassable. Some damage to vulnerable structures may begin to occur. Dangerous swimming and surfing conditions and localized beach erosion. Rip currents can sweep even the best swimmers away from shore into deeper water.

Models are trending a good bit stronger in the short term (HRRR out 14 hours is 5mb lower than a few runs ago) but of course a little more south/west. I think to max this out, either we stop the bleeding there while maintaining intensity, or hope that it is able to maintain intensity and occlude later, and move over SNE instead of burying itself in Long Island

Nothing like the NAM though

NAM 3km model?

Shocking. Are you ever sold? I mean you’re never sold until the storm ends at your house.

Again, I’m not convinced this is some prolonged widespread event. this could easily be breezy days with periodic downpours. Which is why im not sold on big rain totals. Isolated areas, maybe

Uh-oh deep trough could be inbound to Texas next week with a subtropical/polar phase of the jetstreams and Polo's moisture entrained in the system. If so my dreams of flooding in south central Texas could be realized, and I shall be found in the midst of a long limping jebwalk near Plum Creek getting my precious Fort Myers 2022-like water readings! C'Mon Polo! Let's have ALL the moisture over south central Texas! Let's have a hundred year setup right over my backyard! Maybe it could STALL for a few days as well!

Did anyone see the hrdps? Looks quite impressive at 18z

I was wrong when I said I didn't see the hummingbird since last Friday. Just seen the female at the Petunia flower today @5:25pm.

Would seem the storms been trending stronger as well...

“Look kids! Big Ben, Parliament!”

way way south.....hmmm NAM too

Gefs has me over 6 and gfs has me at about 6. NAEFS-Based Guidance, which is multi model ensemble showing over 6... jeez didn't expect to see those kinda predictions...

Lol