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I’m really curious to see how this ends up, not that it means anything for the upcoming Winter but it could be a sign.

Yeah almost no rain here. LOL. NAM being the NAM and overdoing it.

so just getting back into this after years of boring foggy weather in CA.. anyone can tell me what is the RRFS model? any good?

the NE forum is having a meltdown based upon the NAM

I think it's still on the table imho

NAM being the NAM and overdoing it.

Just saying what they’re mentioning

NAM deepens this so much and so quickly that we probably just end up with bands of heavy rain and gusty winds versus a widespread heavy rain shield. Would greatly reduce flooding risk and even wind risk (especially inland). Core of the LLJ never really gets into the region and its quite inverted. But not totally sold on this being as intense as the NAM has it...but this does illustrate such a scenario should that occur

The NAM already starts weakening the storm by Saturday morning. It’s a very different setup than the EURO. It’s also very sparse with rainfall. Could be convective feedback or the fact that the NAM is terrible at handling coastal storms with tropical characteristics.

Nam is kind of a no show.

It’s way out there, but the long range AI EPS shows a more east-shifted version of even the 1+2 correlation for October. But, this is also the most East-based El Niño on record, so it would make some sense to see a pattern shifted further east than what we would typically see.

It’s not missing south lol

Mets are discussing this possibly being a total miss south

NAM 3K has it down to 976 at 45hrs, east of the NC/VA border

*Fwiw* recent 3 day (12 run) CFSv2 runs for Feb have been cooling back down again. The coldest I’ve seen was the very cold Aug 7-9th mean. The warmest was the recently posted Sep 16-18th mean. The newest (Sep 21-23st) is right in between those:

I hope we get tracks like this in 3 months.

You need the rain…why would you want that?

the nam might give you that

No. This is a nasty nor’easter. It reminds me of March 2010, if you’re old enough to remember that one.

Let’s bury this in Maryland

I think we want that though. It'd be a red flag if the high res weren't picking up on a strong system. I'm really interested in seeing the rain signal. The overnight models painted a nasty zone of sig rain. GFS wanted to paint SW CT as ground zero for flood potential again.

Thats awesome!!

Thanks. Do you see it having a chance to transition from cold core, which we all agree it will start as, to ST status?

If there are trees or limbs hanging over an area where kids play, such as a playscape, and there is signs of tree rot or tree damage you could certainly make a case for negligence on the property owner. No different if you say hurt yourself walking through a parking lot of an establishment because of torn up pavement or concrete

I can already see the models festering in their schemes to create a snow chance in October ... Probably continues to deepen as these successive fast moving cold knife air mass inserts eventually mean bouts of early Lake Effect cold/LR convection grapple and cat paws. Post the 15th this all gestates into an actual snow chance perhaps. Or not, but the synoptically cryo supportive. **This isn't associated with ENSO