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and if the precip arrives a couple hours earlier that # 1 area will be further south and east and if it is delayed a few hours arriving that # 3 area will expand further north that why I am sticking with 1 -4 for my area as of now - this is a perfect example of threading the needle..........should be interesting how most school districts handle this because many have early dismissal on Tuesday for the holidays - can't have a delayed opening on those days because it won't count as a 4 hour day........

The Euro control...

He’s also not talking about the Northeast. But agendas here…Webb lives in NC

Comical. We still don't know how the next 8-10 might play out. But whatever.

It always cracks me up when folks say…I hate it here, I hate winter. Well I mean you live in a place where it gets cold. 75-85 degrees is a-lot less frequent north of NC most of the year.

No more looking at OP runs beyond D7. At least not for me. There's really no point. It doesn't seem like models sniff signals out like that anymore the way they did in the glorious 2010s.

"Big winner"? This is a joke event

Interior NY will be the winner

RRFS also south amd drier

You the winner in that run Ant.

3k markedly different. Toss the 12k

Useless Nam

Steve D

?! It looks completely devoid of any precip in SNE

Did we just get NAM’d…

Looking at strong -WPO Decembers since 1950 verifies your statement for a -ENSO that’s in Dec and continues through JF per RONI. I count 8 strong -WPO Decembers during -ENSO winters. Here’s how the subsequent averaged WPO ended up for JF averaged out: 2013-14: -WPO 2010-11: -WPO 2005-6: +WPO 1995-6: -WPO 1983-4: neutral WPO 1961-2: -WPO 1956-7: -WPO 1955-6: -WPO So, the tally for the JF avg is 6 -WPO, 1 neutral WPO, and 1 +WPO. So, these 8 strong -WPO Decembers during -ENSO decently favored -WPO for the average of JF fwiw. Both are favored to be -WPO but Jan is the most strongly favored for that.

White Christmas incoming.

Nam

South and more precip

Oh I get it now, you must have just hung up with t-blizz. You must be in the wrong forum man. It's all about the winter ter, snow, cold, ice.... As I say to anybody else around me, if you hate the cold that much, then move to a warmer climate.

Can we just go back to 1-3 and 2-5…ya, that’s understandable. All this 75% of seeing more than this low number, or 25% of seeing more than this higher number..really?

I'd assume the weeklies respond to the teleconnections that it forecasts. So when the teleconnections remain stuck in a moderate -PNA stage as opposed to approaching +PNA territory, that allows the weeklies to show a warm January, as they are currently showing at the moment. Still will likely require a big change in the pacific in order to force that omega ridge out of the Central US. As long as that persists (which has been the past week), most of the northeast (outside of northern new england) will struggle to remain cold.

Yes. A La Nina is always more hostile in the south. Here in the north it looks fine. And even in the NE. By mid January temps are avg to below avg the rest of January as we get into the climatological coldest time of year. Again...euro has not done well....but still, im looking forward to what Jan/Feb may bring

18z NAM