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Torrential downpours here with loud thunder and frequent lightning. -
Sky has brightened
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Torrential downpours here with loud thunder and frequent lightning.
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Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
canderson replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Incredibly loud thunder and it’s as dark as night -
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1645.html Mesoscale Discussion 1645 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1001 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Areas affected...Northern Mid-Atlantic into southern New England Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 181501Z - 181630Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated wind damage is possible with strong to marginally severe storms late this morning. A watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...A small linear cluster of storms has recently organized in northern New Jersey and adjacent northeast Pennsylvania. Storm cores have shown modest deepening on 7 km MRMS CAPPI over the last 30 minutes. The observed OKX sounding had poor mid-level lapse rates (5.3 C/km) but 45 kt of effective shear. Downstream of this current activity, cloud cover and smoke have hindered surface heating. Low-level lapse rates are not expected to be overly steep. While isolated wind damage is possible late this morning, the severe threat should remain marginal on account of very limited buoyancy. A watch is not expected. ..Wendt/Thompson.. 07/18/2026
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S winds being reported on the 11am obs up to BWI... 84/75 S at 9 at DCA... C VA like CHO, Culpepper, EZF already upper 80s
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Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Blizzard of 93 replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Heavier rain in Marysville with occasional thunder. -
models are unreliable in these setups = now casting time using radars and this smoke is still hanging in there making the sky look strange
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It's inside, but I have bad luck of getting recalled for work when I finally get a date day with the wife.
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SPC has moved marginal risk westward into middle TN for 5% wind also did you check out SPC discussion a upgrade to 60% for wind in the already 45% wind in mid Atlantic New England area .
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I'm wondering about that batch of rain moving in from PA as well
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And the funny thing is, remember how I mentioned that yesterday's 12z HRRR nailed our area today around 10 in the morning. That HRRR run yesterday ended up being correct, but future runs lost it. It's such an inconsistent model, but it's certainly useful at times.
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Saturday, July 18, 2026 Thunderstorm/Severe Weather Potential
Damage In Tolland replied to weatherwiz's topic in New England
What do you think on timing? -
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bad? -
Heavy smoke today . More please
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Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
canderson replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
Smoke can create a cool pool and a theory is an interacting front or low can exploit that for energy. -
76 and thunderstorms here. Getting very dark.
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Hrrr doesn't even have this round
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This is the warm front which sets the stage for later. Without it there wouldn’t be much of a severe threat later.
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However we get the rain I’m good with.
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That concert indoors? I know there's another concert at Ravens stadium tonight and that could get interesting with big t-storms. 85/78 here with the blue sky starting to show with southerly winds pushing the smoke out.
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You have to wonder if this early convection is messing up our chances for later, but I don't care -- that was a very nice storm. I got a quick 0.46" from it. Glad the vegetable garden got a good watering.
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Looks like the beginning of at least a seasonably active period with daily chances for strong thunderstorms, including a day five 15% probability for Eastern Virginia, NC, and Northern SC.
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Central PA Summer 2026 Discussion/Obs Thread
Itstrainingtime replied to Voyager's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
No measurable rain fell here this morning. I hope that whatever it takes for severe weather to develop fails. I don't like days like today. And I don't like being in the hatched area for TOR.
