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.25"

As ALWAYS, great disco in this thread.

2.3 total since yesterday much needed! Prince Frederick Mesonet with 3.08 wow!

We are over due for a non-winer in NE TN. Just looking at yesterday's and today Euro LR ex control...winter may start early in the Rockies. Of course that means it will be extended summer here...haha -> the the pattern discussion thread and you will know why I am laughing. Every, single time. I think we see severe cold in the Canadian front rang or Plains at times. The real question is weather there will be a mechanism to move it southeastward. I have been watching solar flux lately. I know...I am bored w/ this pattern. Anyway, with the double peak over for this solar cycle, that could be a good thing for us. I actually don't like solar flux spikes. I understand they might cause disturbances in the strat, but....I think there might be a loose correlation to forecasted cold shots which never materialize. I tend to roll with this for temps in E TN. Dec - AN Jan - AN Feb - Normal Snow for NE TN only! Dec - BN Jan - Normal Feb - Normal My gut says this winter may be colder than most are projecting, even me. The CANSIPS has been sneaky good for a decade at the seasonal level. It is stubborn w/ a full winter ridge over Alaska. Euro seasonal are not enthused. That said, the CANSIPS are still at a range where they can change maybe one more time bigly. I think this winter may well be defined by 1-2 big storms to track. They may or may not result in anything. But w/ the STJ ripping and if the CANSIPS is even right for 2-3 weeks for the winter, there should be options for winter. Of note, strong or super Ninos generally are hot garbage over NE TN. My thoughts are that we are in a -NAO cycle, and that bails us out. The gradient in the Pacific matters quite a bit to grab an idea from typhoon tip. If the gradient is strong, we get typical Nino responses. If it is not strong, I suspect warmth dominates. Bastardi mentioned that today, but that is a staple of most seasonal forecasts to be fair. Without the solar flux spikes, we might steal some cold. PDO is a wildcard.

Wound up with beautiful afternoon weather Sunday and Monday at Assateague Island National Seashore. Surprisingly very little rain so far.

Getting some localized flooding here in West Asheville.

that looks very even to me...5/6 stations within 1 inch over a 60 day period is very even.

1.12" for the event. No complaints.

Well you're not getting a +PDO so I guess we'll all be tanning in mid January

Cloudy day with temps around 70 with a light Lake breeze again. Temps should be a little warmer coming up with a W wind.

And add to that...it's now coming out that they offered Adley extensions in November and May, and turned them both down...so from the business side it sounds like it had to be done! But still hurts having to be sellers AGAIN due to Elias incompetence. And I am getting more wary of Rubenstein in terms of next year...if he doesn't fire Elias then the dude is either legit clueless or doesn't care. I hope he listens to Cal and the other baseball minds in the group! There is no way you can be "pleased" with zero playoff wins and being sellers six times! Fire Elias or get more mediocrity--his choice.

Just another day.

Typical uneven nature of rainfall from convection. We would probably need a tropical system to have the heaviest totals spread out more evenly. Bridgeport currently has the heaviest totals since June 1st of the major reporting stations. June 1st through August 3rd rainfall NYC….10.28….+0.67 LGA…..9.61……+0.83 EWR….9.74…..+0.27 JFK…..9.31……+1.19 ISP…..10.33……+2.66 BDR….15.84…..+8.36

So much for being buyers only being 2.5 games out of the wildcard... Another rebuild before the last rebuild was even over. Adley I am okay with, maybe even Ward, but I do not like giving up Wells.

4.00” . 20.50” since July 1

Yeah pretty good given they invested in Basallo and Adley has really been mediocre/often hurt for a season and a half now. Os put him on the IL because they didn't want to play him and risk more serious injury prior to the deadline. They knew multiple teams were in desperate need for a catcher who can hit(sometimes). Hate to give the Os front office ANY credit but this was pretty well played. We shall see if any of these prospects end up being impactful, but it's yet another waiting game. Os are perpetually in the "we will be great in a few years" mode. Elias' best 'skill' is gaslighting. The arrogant bastard has been at it for 8 years.

Just looked and just over 4 here.. we take!

I'm seeing stories comparing this to the El Nino of 1877-78 which they say was the year without winter in North America. But looking back, Knoxville was near normal in December and -1.2 in Jan and similar in Feb. The El Nino developed in Jan 1877 and peaked in November.

Yup. We miss

Might be joining you . Most of this may miss north

3.33” thus far. Might do it.

Getting a preview of things to come in Alaska

North side of town by templewood golf course

You and Dave

Actually just looked at radar estimates and actual obs in that area and I think that number looks right. Not sure where in town he is, but there was a little min zone in there.