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Wondering if we truly see it push east or get a result similar to this coming weekend. *Frames are cherry picked just to show for the example*

yeah... I was just remarking about this over the ENSO thread this morning. It's anomalously cold relative to pattern - which is interesting ... if one can keep personal druthers out of the perspectives. We've observed a trough scooting quickly through Ontario a couple of times, but by and large ... we've been above normal hydrostats over much of the CONUS below the 45th parallel, yet ... we are getting frost and freeze headlines and lows in the upper 20s. -the longer term temperature anomaly distribution still probably end up decimals warmer than normal. That's been a leitmotif going back ... years actually. We end up above normal against the 30 year base while being below normal relative to daily metrics like the pattern. Or this, with frost advisories underneath ... it's interesting that we just cannot seem to sustain a westerly lower tropospheric momentum under this July setting ... like in Julys either!

Thanks. So, since this pattern of this offshore low and associated cooler air in the E US is likely indirectly related to the very strong Nino, is this possibly a sign of things to come this winter?

37.2 in Syosset & 35.7 in Muttontown this morning. Any winds at your station with elevation?

Good morning S h. Accu weather long range, as of today, shows December 3rd. This, of course, will change numerous times in the weeks ahead,

very warm 10 years ago Records: Highs: EWR: 87 (2016) NYC: 85 (2016) LGA: 86 (2016) JFK: 86 (2016) Lows: EWR: 30 (1976) NYC: 30 (1940) LGA: 32 (1940) JFK: 31 (1976) Historical: 1749: A tremendous hurricane tracked offshore Virginia, northeast to Cape Cod. At 1:00 a.m. at Norfolk, winds became violent from the northeast. The fury of the storm peaked between 10:00 a.m. and 2:00 p.m.. In Williamsburg, one family drowned as flood waters carried their house away. At Hampton, water rose to four feet deep in the streets; many trees were uprooted or snapped in two. Torrents of rain flooded northern Virginia and Maryland. The Bay rose to fifteen feet above normal...destroying waterfront buildings. An account of this tremendous storm was given in the biography of Commodore James Barron, An Affair of Honor, by William Oliver Stevens. Barron's grandfather witnessed the hurricane first hand while stationed at Fort George. The account is as follows: "A threatening sky was observed to the southeast over the Chesapeake Bay. The wind increased which soon brought the rain. As the hours wore on the wind and rain increased in fury. Sometimes the downpour slackened. One could hear the sand picked up by the wind from the beach outside and blasted against every object that still withstood the gale. All the while the rising tide was rapidly being piled up to a height never seen before in that area. The waves were pounding on the shore, finally to the very foot of the outside wall at Fort George. A large tree crashed over on its side with its roots in the air and was driven against the land side of the Fort. With the impact the wall yawned and broke. Shortly afterwards the seawall lurched and sank at the point where it was exposed to the wave fury of the storm. Finally the outside wall of the fort gave way, and the filling of sand poured out, leaving the inner wall exposed to the blast without support. When this too fell apart and collapsed, the barracks took the full force of the wind. About sundown, the storm slackened and in another hour the rain and wind had diminished to such a degree that it was clearly spent. " The next morning Commodore Barron swept the distant waters with his spy glass. He was astonished to see across Hampton Roads a wide, sand promontory which had not existed there before. A sand spit had been thrown up during the fury of the storm, which was the beginning of Willoughby Spit. (Ref. Hurricane of 1749) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1844 - The famous "Lower Great Lakes Storm" occurred. Southwesterly winds were at hurricane force for five hours, driving lake waters into downtown Buffalo NY. The storm drowned 200 persons. (David Ludlum) 1940: 2.2 inches of snowfall was recorded at Philadelphia, PA starting on this date and ending on the 20th, for the highest amount of snow received from a storm in October. The maximum 1.7 inch snow depth measured is an October record. Baltimore, MD received 0.4 inches on this day and 0.9 inches on the 20th. Washington, DC received just a tenth of an inch of snow on this date followed by 1.4 inches on the 20th. (Ref. Wilson Weather History) 1961 - Rain changed to a record early season, heavy wet snow over the southern mountains of West Virginia. Leaves were still on trees, resulting in the worst forest disaster since the fires of 1952 and 953. One to two feet of snow fell near Summersville and Richwood. (19th-20th) (The Weather Channel) 1984 - Thunderstorms deluged the town of Odem, TX (located 15 miles northwest of Corpus Christi) with 25 inches of rain in just three and a half hours. Most businesses in Odem were flooded, as were 1000 homes in nearby Sinton. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A cold front brought rainshowers to parts of the central U.S., and ushered cool Canadian air into the Great Plains Region. Daytime highs were only in the 30s in North Dakota and eastern Montana. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thunderstorms produced high winds in eastern Colorado, with gusts to 63 mph reported at La Junta. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Record breaking snows fell across northern and central Indiana. Totals ranged up to 10.5 inches at Kokomo, and 9.3 inches was reported at Indianapolis. The 8.8 inch total at South Bend was a record for the month as a whole. Up to seven inches of snow fell in extreme southern Lower Michigan, and up to six inches fell in southwestern Ohio. The heavy wet snow downed many trees and power lines. Half the city of Cincinnati OH was without electricity during the morning hours. Temperatures dipped below freezing across much of the Great Plains Region. Twenty cities, including fourteen in Texas, reported record low temperatures for the date. North Platte NE reported a record low of 11 degrees. In Florida, four cities reported record high temperatures for the date. The record high of 92 degrees at Miami also marked a record fourteen days of 90 degree weather in October, and 116 such days for the year. 1990: A tornado damaged an apartment complex and shopping center near Baltimore, MD. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1996: The opening game of World Series between the Braves and Yankees in New York was postponed by heavy rains and high wind from a major storm system affecting the East Coast, marking the third time in history that the World Series opener had been postponed. Overall, nine of the 22 games that have been canceled in Series history were scheduled in New York or Brooklyn. 2005: Hurricane Wilma pushed the 2005 season to the most active ever recorded, added another entry to the record books. The central pressure of this Category 5 storm fell to 882 millibars or 26.05 inches of mercury, the lowest minimum pressure ever measured in the Atlantic basin. Its maximum sustained wind peaked at 185 mph. (Ref. Wilson Weather History)

What’s your elevation? If your up on the moraine at 200’ or something it makes sense. You’re cold on CAA but do not radiate well. I was up at whiteface in the Adirondacks a couple winters ago and it was -30 in the valley but -10 at the base of the mountain 1,000’ higher. .

52 / 42 gorgeous week coming up. Dry week, near to above normal overall - onshore flow keep warmest west with the ridge in place and cut off offshore. It looks like Tue the warmest this week and Friday the coolest and then overall warmer towards Monday the 26th with more 70s possible as ridging comes east. Looks like we've had the coolest reading this week till after the end of the month.

32.5

I noticed that the Garrett County Airport only had a low of 41. Our site in Bittinger had a low of 28 and a few of the PWS's in Oakland were also in the 27-30 range. I think some of the higher elevations stuck out of the inversion and stayed light winds all night. The Canaan Valley NWR Cold Sink station was 18.1 this morning.

The models have really been struggling with the North American pattern in the medium range for most of this month if you’ve been paying attention. They seem to be struggling the most with the area from Alaska down into the Pacific Northwest.

38 again. Can’t figure my area out. Last was the warmest in my area, 2 nights ago the coldest.

SSW's may be challenged more so than climatology this season. Hard to say ...some competing signals... Pro: there is an apparently ( assuming so ) a modeled switch into the westerly QBO phase pretty quickly this autumn. W-QBO correlates to a easterly momentum inject into the stratospheric altitudes. It's like warm advection currents dissipating at higher altitudes capture/drags some of that momentum then intrudes it into the PV ... and helps the wave break/ SSW phenomenon. Con: however, this has been a very active solar disk spring/summer/ and continues here in autumn. These solar 'storms' break apart ozone in the high altitudes. UV loading related... Ozone is the primary conductance in getting warm intrusions to 'flash' through the higher PV column.

Past does not necessarily correlate to future outcomes. But Chuck is 100% right about his observed flaw in the long range guidance. It wasn't just 2024, they did the same thing in 2019 also, continuously advertising a canonical nino look in the pacific that never actually materialized. That doesn't mean the same thing happens again, but it would be foolish to stick our heads in the sand bout that fact. Until we actually see a nino north pac pattern set in I would be skeptical also! I disagree with Chuck about the position of the N Pac low being fine if it's east based. But most won't want to hear this. He is right that if you run a mean of our biggest snowstorms there is a low just off the Pac NW coast. The issue is how we get there. That low isn't typically as strong as a super nino one will be. Additionally it's usually part of a retrograding pattern and it wasn't there the whole time, the cold for the snowstorm was set up then as the pattern retrogrades a transient low there sets in motion the snowstorm. That is also why we usually warm up soon after our biggest snowstorms...because a low there floods CONUS with pac puke. A permanent low all winter there would NOT be the same as a transient low there following a favorable pattern for cold. A permanent strong low just off the Pac NW would flood the CONUS with mild pac puke airmass. This doesn't mean we can't get a big snowstorm. There might we windows. The pac pattern will fluctuate some. We probably need a favorable AO/NAO and who knows. But we're going to be fighting some very uphill battles, some of which we have been fighting for the last 10 years. @CAPE you're right it can snow during these hostile underlying issues, but the fact is it has snowed less in the last 10 years than any 10 year period in history! No one is saying we know how the winter will play out for sure...but when making these seasonal predictions it's about probabilities, and the results under this pacific pdo regime have shown the math favors less snow. So yes we're rooting for a fluke, but you don't base a seasonal forecast one "maybe we get lucky".

As you should be. The information and opinions I post are certainly candidates for skepticism, as should all information and opinions presented from any information source.

all the long term modeling (For what it's worth) shows a wet east coast.

October 19 2000: The warmest October 19th in Minnesota history occurs for many towns. Many cities had highs in the 80s, with the Twin Cities hitting 84. Appleton in Swift County reported 90 degrees. 1972: A cold snap moves through Minnesota, with lows of 1 above in Tower and 9 in St. Peter and Luverne. 1916: Redwood Falls receives a record-setting 7 inches of snow. For Monday, October 19, 2026 1844 - The famous "Lower Great Lakes Storm" occurred. Southwesterly winds were at hurricane force for five hours, driving lake waters into downtown Buffalo NY. The storm drowned 200 persons. (David Ludlum) 1961 - Rain changed to a record early season, heavy wet snow over the southern mountains of West Virginia. Leaves were still on trees, resulting in the worst forest disaster since the fires of 1952 and 1953. One to two feet of snow fell near Summersville and Richwood. (19th-20th) (The Weather Channel) 1984 - Thunderstorms deluged the town of Odem, TX (located 15 miles northwest of Corpus Christi) with 25 inches of rain in just three and a half hours. Most businesses in Odem were flooded, as were 1000 homes in nearby Sinton. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A cold front brought rainshowers to parts of the central U.S., and ushered cool Canadian air into the Great Plains Region. Daytime highs were only in the 30s in North Dakota and eastern Montana. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thunderstorms produced high winds in eastern Colorado, with gusts to 63 mph reported at La Junta. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Record breaking snows fell across northern and central Indiana. Totals ranged up to 10.5 inches at Kokomo, and 9.3 inches was reported at Indianapolis. The 8.8 inch total at South Bend was a record for the month as a whole. Up to seven inches of snow fell in extreme southern Lower Michigan, and up to six inches fell in southwestern Ohio. The heavy wet snow downed many trees and power lines. Half the city of Cincinnati OH was without electricity during the morning hours. Temperatures dipped below freezing across much of the Great Plains Region. Twenty cities, including fourteen in Texas, reported record low temperatures for the date. North Platte NE reported a record low of 11 degrees. In Florida, four cities reported record high temperatures for the date. The record high of 92 degrees at Miami also marked a record fourteen days of 90 degree weather in October, and 116 such days for the year. Observances: 19 Mon National Kiss Your Crush Day 19 Mon National New Friends Day 19 Mon National Clean Your Virtual Desktop Day 19 Mon Evaluate Your Life Day 19 Mon LGBT Center Awareness Day 19 Mon National Kentucky Day 19 Mon National Seafood Bisque Day 19 Mon World Humanitarian Action Day 19 Mon World Pediatric Bone and Joint Day

Yeah, I only posted the guidance for the next 15 days along with actual pattern for the month so far. The AIFS-ENS has been doing very well with both the 500mb and storm tracks including hurricanes. The EPS weeklies beyond 15 days and other guidance is lower skill. But they have developed an AI bias corrected version (PBC) of the EPS weeklies that they claim has better scores than the weeklies do. I will post some forecast images from this new AI bias corrected EPS weeks 2-6 when and if they become available to the general public. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-026-11126-x?utm_source=x&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=nature&linkId=64119704 Decision-makers rely on weather forecasts to plant crops, manage wildfires, allocate water and energy and prepare for weather extremes1,2,3. Today, such forecasts enjoy unprecedented accuracy as far as 2 weeks thanks to steady advances in physics-based dynamical models and data-driven artificial intelligence models4,5,6,7,8,9,10. However, model skill drops precipitously at subseasonal timescales (2–6 weeks ahead) due to compounding errors, systemic model biases and the chaotic nature of the atmosphere11,12,13,14,15. To counter this degradation, we introduce probabilistic bias correction, a machine learning framework that substantially reduces systematic error by learning to correct historical probabilistic forecasts. When applied to the leading dynamical and artificial intelligence models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), probabilistic bias correction doubles the modest subseasonal skill of the AI Forecasting System16 and improves the skill of the operationally debiased dynamical model17 for 91% of pressure, 92% of temperature and 98% of precipitation targets.

Likely related ... ... for one, although the sample size is not appreciably large ( on the order of 10 or 12 spanning 200 years ), of those warm ENSO, something like 9 or 10 had these autumn hybrid like circulations. Not meaning to say that is what's going on down there at this time, but... you know, if you're going to hybridize a gyre in that region, you wanna start with something like the theme we are in fact seeing so far ( the unusual end September coastal event that was over publicized (snark) being a fair example). Some guidance couldn't resist and bored that thing down to almost 970 mb.. as it were ... it was just a pedestrian. But still very really and albeit asynchronous low - one which happens to fit the total idea. We are still in the correlation window so this weakness/tendency for another low there ... it's suggestive enough. It's important to note however, El Ninos do not directly cause storm or no storm formation.

Classic CAD. In theory it should be more likely in El Niño due to less SE ridging.

at least 1/4 of it frozen - probably more so in January

Ha forgot there was a Bob Dylan cameo in that

39F here in Calvert which ironically was the same temp as the cabin this morning according to my game cam.

Low of 36. Perfect Fall week ahead.