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Well you’re surrounded by large oaks and near a deck. So there are some sources for IR to reradiate back. But yeah, you’re not a rad location regardless. Maybe instead of 36° you’d be 34° or something.

Yes

November will likely be warmest month on record for CONUS

He isn’t far from the ocean to the south

Makes no sense for the El Niño to move west which makes these forecasts irrelevant

There is no issue . It’s a windy hilltop in the woods that doesn’t radiate . Case closed

Definitely think where it sits is part of the issue there.

If there is no wind we wont drop below 32 unless its mid winter.

It's time for the 13th annual Mid-Atlantic snowfall contest! Those who participated last year will recollect an exciting contest featuring five lead changes, with the final one coming on March 14, 2026, when BWI's snow total for March 12th was revised from a trace to 1.0 inches, sending @Cobaltto victory over @Roger Smith. Little did we know at that time that Roger had passed away on February 24th, but his last contest was his best one as he finished second by a scant 0.7 inch greater departure than Cobalt's departure. This snow season will feature a potentially historically strong El Nino, which could mean in the Mid-Atlantic anything from virtually no snow (1997-98 winter) to a blockbuster storm (1982-83 and 2015-16 winters). Which should make for a wide range of forecasts, most any of which could plausibly happen. In any case, the focus of our contest is forecasting the total snow that will fall during the 2026-27 snow season at BWI International (BWI), Reagan National (DCA), Dulles International (IAD), and Richmond International (RIC) Airports. In the event a tiebreaker is required (that has happened twice in 12 years), please choose one of the following two airports: Salisbury, MD (SBY) or Lynchburg, VA (LYH). Choose only one. Please note that you are forecasting at each of five airports total snowfall for the entire snow season (NOT just Dec/Jan/Feb) to the nearest one-tenth of an inch. Generally, snow does not fall after early April at any of these airports, and so the contest is usually finalized by late March to mid-April. The winner will be the entrant who has the lowest combined absolute value departure for all four major airports. For example, if you forecast zeroes at each airport except for Richmond: BWI: 0.0" DCA: 0.0" IAD: 0.0" RIC: 10.0" And the actual seasonal totals turn out to be: BWI: 2.5" DCA: 2.5" IAD: 2.5" RIC: 2.5" Your absolute value departures would be: BWI: 2.5 DCA: 2.5 IAD: 2.5 RIC: 7.5 Thus, your total departure would be 15.0. Please use the following format when posting your forecast, in this order: BWI: DCA: IAD: RIC: Tiebreaker (SBY or LYH): The deadline for entries is Tuesday, December 1, at 11:59 PM EST. You are welcome to update your forecast at any time up to the deadline. However, please do not edit your original post -- either submit a new post or send me a private message. If there's any accumulating snow before the deadline, be sure to include that in your forecast total. I think the best approach for most folks is to submit your forecast in advance of the deadline and update if necessary, just in case you get tied up on December 1st, when the contest will lock -- no late entries will be accepted. The winner gets an E-trophy made of snow and an induction into the Hall of Fame with the previous winners: 2014-15: @nw baltimore wx@S@S@Shadowzone 2015-16: @Shadowzone@Stormpchadowzone 2016-17: @StormpcStormpchadowzone 2017-18: @olafminesaw@Storm @olafminesaw 2018-19: @olafminesaw (tiebreaker win against @Stormpc) @Stormpc 2019-20: @Prestige Worldwide 2020-21: @NorthArlington101 2021-22: @IUsedToHateCold 2022-23: @LittleVillageWx 2023-24: @Kmlwx 2024-25: @HighStakes(tiebreaker win against @mattie g) 2025-26: @Cobalt@Stor Everyone is encouraged to play, including lurkers, new members, and people outside the region. Good luck everyone!

30 with some frost this morning. .

Couldn't agree more...well I guess I could, but that would be really weird. Lol

Are anyone else’s fall allergies peaking right now? The last few days have been terrible for me.

Did you forget what happened in 2015?

Thursday will be 20 days straight with no rain . Pretty crazy stretch

Another can kick...winter just got an hour further away this morning

Blooms into December? I have all kinds of stuff still flowering here including a bunch of hydrangeas.

Seems like your tracking pretty close to BDR in lows. They still haven't gone below 34. 36 for the low there last night

Strange how DC is part of VA now. New Virgina County? And that I live in Montgomery County B, east of Moco A. AI slop base map aside, I like your forecast.

No it’s been there for 3 years now. I used to have it below the deck but on the brick walkway .. literally 12 feet away . I mean there hasn’t been even any fake rooftop or car frost any mornings . Everything is growing , so it’s just a microclimate doing micro climate things.

My front lawn is still growing a bit but the back has stopped. Which makes sense because during the summer my front lawn is usually burnt and brown, it gets much more sun. My backyard probably averages an extra couple hours below freezing this time of year. now i just mow to mulch some of the leaves.

Great data, thanks for sharing. What do you use to create the visuals?