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Shoulda known better

Retired model

June 1, 2011 was the New England tor event w/ the EF3 Springfield-Monson MA. This is the last high-end tor event for New England, About every 10-15 years New England gets a high-end tor event, so one could say, "they're due!"

Planes are running out of beer coming from Scotland, plus they are the most stoked but respectful fans… they look like a fun crowd. The Boston PD officer juggling the soccer ball for a lot of touches, inside a crowd of kilt wearing fans, that go wild when he’s done… the World Cup seems like a fun scene.

Beautiful evening in Shelburne Falls to see a show.

I am "guessing" we might have had .25 inches in Garner I am usually close based on duration/rate

So I actually looked this news article up and it’s kind of what I thought it was going to be. The headline isn’t what he said at all. Basically this guy says he expects a strong El Niño but a dry winter in Wyoming isn’t guaranteed since nothing is guaranteed in weather that far in advance.

I got sundogs right and left of the sun

Cue Richard Marx right here waiting. he always is

When I posted, I thought of it this way, in a overall synoptic sense, you don't track a 990 mb or deeper sfc low across southern Ontario/Quebec this time of year, and *not* have something big happen convectively! What that is exactly is and where? Way too early, but all the main pieces are there, so that's the first step. Work from there. What is really cool now is that modelling and knowledge have come to the point we now can reasonably see high-end/record-setting events potential well in advance. The first time I really took l note of this was a couple days before the Oct 29-30, 2011 snowstorm. I noticed how cold the short-range ensembles were showing the 850 mb temps, and I said, "this is going to be epic/really bad," and look what happened. Then a year later, we saw what the ECMWF was doing w/ Sandy (even before the system was named Sandy!) 9 days out, and again, look what happened! Now we had advanced enough to see high-end svr convective potential days 4-8. From a wx passion standpoint, it's really cool to know such things in advance now. Growing up, I recall the uncertainty factor seemed always so high, and so many surprises (snowstorms over-performing was a biggie). And from a societal POV, us knowing ahead of time is a tremendous benefit so we can prepare for them and mitigate impacts.

The lake was a little rough this morning.

Topped out @ 88F here today.

Those Scottish dudes just make me want to hang out and party with them lol.

What a night for a soccer match. Absolutely perfect. I'm sure they'll return home and tell friends they must visit Boston. The weather's great! The friends will come on memorial Day...

Nice cell popping up in SE Wake now!

He’s here and crushing those of us SOP and EOR

Friday the whole thing got undercut by outflow. Then it regenerated east of the Apps. Speaking of the Mountains, got a Slight on Sunday. The mountains are always calling, but I'm not sure if that's for chasing, lol! I'm really interested in midweek. Verbatim it's a Midwest issue. We'll just see where outflow boundaries may lie. Winds aloft are forecast to be pretty strong for mid-June by mid-week, stronger than this current weekend.

Today's highs EWR: 91 BLM: 90 New Brnswck: 90 ACY: 90 TEB: 90 PHL: 90 LGA: 88 TTN: 86 ISP: 86 JFK: 85 NYC: 85

More of a march/april look here than anything else, but loving the shear profile

Today's highs EWR: 91 BLM: 90 New Brnswck: 90 ACY: 90 TEB: 90 PHL: 90 LGA: 88 TTN: 86 ISP: 86 JFK: 85 NYC: 85

Yeah, next. Sucks

Looky at the radar...so happy for SE NC...my area...screwed again...and again...sigh

So much for rain today too...rain will stay south...screwed again

hoping we get some more of an east trend, am pretty tired of getting 2am weakening MCSs, would at least like to see some lightning in the daytime