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after 120 hits the wall n scoots. Prior it was decent. still going to be another day or 2 till resolved. Goalposts are wide. If I have time I'll go to ens slp clusters and see what they show. Blizz if you are around and can look, please do.

The Euro remains Dr. No. It only tends to badly miss when it shows snow. When it doesn't, lock it in usually.

So close but yet still far away from being a hit. All the pieces will have to come together.

What a mess

Dr. Uccellini: "I'd rather be in Hamilton"

I could see this end up being a blend of GFS/CMC/Euro put together. The GFS would be great i just dont see that crazy of a run happening. The CMC seems more reasonable. The Euro hopefully trends to that at 18z. Then its game on.

Toast on Euro

@Terpeast When do you think this model reshuffle will happen?

12z EPS is a bit west of the 06z run.

Every decent storm has a "back away from the ledge" Euro run. Again, late phase/moderate snow for the Piedmont seems much more likely than the GFS solution, but a 2-4" sub-forum wide snowfall with temps in the teens and some upside is what we've needed for a long time

The newer PNS is a total disaster. Can’t see dates and they only have times without AM/PM designation….but it honestly looks like they left a whole bunch of lower reports in there from yesterday before the storm was over. So many of those numbers don’t pass the smell test. They have exactly 2 totals over 20” in Middlesex county and a dozen sub-17” totals.

Yes, but more confident that it won't whiff...occlusion is a greater threat, JHMO.

Not overly optimistic for a shake up to a pattern more conducive to regional winter storms in this part of the subforum until out towards mid Feb. An improved clipper pattern may eventually evolve as the western ridge axis centers farther west up into AK late in the first week of February and reduces the amplitude of the +PNA. As of the most recent available ensemble forecast teleconnection indices, signal is there for PNA to trend to at least slightly negative by or after the Superbowl. Since there's been headfakes regarding pairing -PNA with favorable teleconnection indices for cold (-EPO and -AO/-NAO), it's much too far out yet to get too excited. The good news is that the pattern should remain persistently near to below normal temperature wise, so there should be some opportunities for a few bouts of light to moderate snowfalls (aside from LES potential) until pattern possibly becomes more conducive for a time by mid Feb. Wait and see approach. Edit: Wanted to incorporate a bit of MJO here, but the CPC page isn't working well today. If anyone has MJO insights, interested in those thoughts as well.

Its legit light snow up here in central Orange County right now.

120 hours out is only 5 days. When was the last time the GFS was wrong only 5 days out?

Thinking the ULL closes off later and ends up tracking further NE?

its looking fine out to 114 and waiting on next panels.

I’ve gotta say hoping for a NW trend on a phased system feels 10000x times more productive than the opposite, like last weekend

Its pretty much the same as 00z and not as good as 18z, but yes ots better than 6z.

No.

When do the pieces of this start moving onshore? Tomorrow?

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