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Last year was a frontloaded warm summer, with the heat wave in late June and the warmth lasting all through July. The summer pretty much ended after July 31.

I see the 18z HRRR has a round for around midday, and then a long break for the afternoon before a big round for the early evening.

Very, very doubtful. Maybe some TORs here though, 12/26/15 featured a violent EF4 in DFW. S Rockies hopefully will cash in on Nino climo, not too far of a flight / drive from here to N NM and SW CO.

18Z HRRR not many changes, does move a bit to the RRFS/Hi RES GFS idea the first round 15-18Z may be mostly NYC north but the 22-02z period looks like a strong line of storms

proper torch

GFS and NAM keep me in the 60's on Wednesday. Would be v refreshing

0.17” of precipitation from the dying line of convection this morning

Glad you were able to get out and escape the leftism of New England. Wish we could . This winter it’s entirely possible you get more snow than we do !

Today is the 10th consecutive 90 at MSP, setting a new record. While the daily high temperatures weren’t noteworthy, the duration certainly was. I’d classify this as a historic heatwave around Minnesota.

Mt Mitchell definitely plays a role. Central McDowell where I live can miss out in this type of flow. We rack up with NE/E or SE flow. And do well in S flow. Anything with a W component is very hit or miss.

I recently learned that whole house generators have a life span of around 20 years. a friend has had one for 20+ years, and it recently stopped doing its weekly test run, so he had a guy out to service it. Found a blown fuse, which he replaced. when he fired up the generator, the battery literally exploded. No diagnosis as the unit was well out of warranty and there was no guarantee that they could even figure out what the problem was.

ORD and MDW ended up with 6 90°+ days during this heat wave, all consecutive. ...ORD... July 13th: 93°/69° July 14th: 96°/74° July 15th: 95°/76° July 16th: 91°/75° July 17th: 92°/75° July 18th: 91°/70° ...MDW... July 13th: 92°/69° July 14th: 96°/73° July 15th: 95°/76° July 16th: 91°/78° July 17th: 94°/77° July 18th: 91°/71°

It made it up to 91° at ORD and MDW on Saturday.

It made it up to 91° at ORD and MDW on Saturday. ...2026 90°+ Day Tally... 12 - MDW 11 - ORD 11 - RFD 11 - ARR 10 - PWK 10 - LOT 9 - UGN 8 - DPA

That's a good point. This is 2 years after a Solar Max: We know that +AO/NAO is favored +1-5 years after Solar Max. Also, 4/5 Super east-based Nino's have happened during +NAO decadal phase (82-83, 97-98, 15-16, 23-24 -vs- 72,73). This year will make 5/6 Super Nino's happening in +NAO decadal unless we see a 09-10 type -NAO season. Check it out.. 13 February's in a row have had +NAO, and most are >+1.00 NAO! 2014 1.34 2015 1.32 2016 1.58 2017 1.00 2018 1.58 2019 0.29 2020 1.26 2021 0.14 2022 1.68 2023 0.92 2024 1.09 2025 1.60 2026 0.68

Probably not. I think we've already seen the worst of the heat. Unlike those years, we've had heat early and often, with 80s as early as March, 90s as early as April, and 100+ earlier this month. I highly doubt we see more 90-degree days in August than in June or July.

That's a picture I didn't need in my head today.

Flood Watch National Weather Service New York NY 231 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026 NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ072>075-176-178-211000- /O.NEW.KOKX.FA.A.0005.260721T1200Z-260722T0600Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson-Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-Western Union-Eastern Union- New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)-Northern Queens-Southern Queens- 231 PM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026 ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...Portions of northeast New Jersey, including the following areas, Eastern Bergen, Eastern Essex, Eastern Passaic, Eastern Union, Hudson, Western Bergen, Western Essex, Western Passaic and Western Union and southeast New York, including the following areas, Bronx, Kings (Brooklyn), New York (Manhattan), Northern Queens, Richmond (Staten Island) and Southern Queens. * WHEN...From Tuesday morning through late Tuesday night. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding may occur in poor drainage and urban areas. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening. Average rainfall totals will be between 1 and 2 inches, with isolated totals around 3 to 4 inches possible. Peak rainfall rates in the strongest storms could be near 2.5 inches per hour. - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop.

Wow, even if it does happen, my area gets split like a pair of cheap khakis on Chris Farley.

Agreed. Unfortunately, my confidence in SPC has really been shaken since they've changed these outlooks.

Here’s 1997 vs. this year, same time. The 30C isotherm east of the dateline this year sticks out like a sore thumb and like you said, we have record warm water volume this time around. We are about to leave 1997 in the dust….WWBs and DWKWs as far as the eye can see Subsurface: 1+2 SSTs: 3.4 SSTs:

SPC extended enhanced risk to the NE, close to the metro area now.

Double post but deal with it We all need to just consider the outlook meanings as a whole. a severe report within 25 miles of a point can be VERY high confidence especially in highly populated areas where there are now an abundance of spotters and average joes sending reports in.

Well I also think exactly what we all thought would happen with the new outlooks this year, has happened. It truly is that with forecasting advances, 45%+ is just not going to be super uncommon anymore. Everything has probably shifted upwards a tier. So 60% may be the new 45%. I think we will continue to see a higher incidence of 45% wind days. It does *not* mean that there will be more outbreak days. We have to sort of re-train our brains at least on the wind side of the outlooks. We used to get super amped for a 45% wind day....that will be like a 30% in the past. Sure - it's better than 15% but it's not like a derecho is coming through. If 2012 evolved in this new outlook scheme - as SPC upgraded that night with the line approaching - we probably would have gotten a 90% prob...