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The big ones always do...

Non-linear climate shifts don’t care about small sample sizes. Non-linear climate dynamics combined with small sample sizes create severe statistical and predictive challenges because the Earth's system can cross critical thresholds or experience abrupt state shifts that short or sparse historical records fail to capture. [1, 2, 3]

Usually feel like 50mb is a pretty good proxy for where the cold is. We don't have any on this side of the planet. Whatever that event is in the stratosphere. It's booting it all to the other side of the planet. Ultimately, it's dumping into the Pacific. Increase that gradient? Just going to turbocharge the Pacific jet by doing that... Thinking torched thoughts...

Most likely but I will take it! We may slip back into Extreme Drought soon.

Here's the RRFS ensemble, which we'll all have to use for general purposes, since the NAM and standard convection allowing models are ending! tornado chances upcoming today

They’re WAY more optimistic than what I predicted.

It's going to be a long cold winter that never ends.

In-Fa was very impressive at 130 kt, and slowed down, did a small loop, and is now quite sheared

That won’t stop the weenies from saying it’ll make its own cold air.

This change was actually set to occur in mid-October, but was pushed back due to the REFS/RRFS failing it's final test prior to that time. But yes, unless there is some very last minute shift, that change will occur tomorrow.

Rookie numbers.gif

La Nina base state seems to account for most (not all) of the warmth in the east

October 2026 finished tied as the 6th warmest October on record in Chicago. Warmest September 1. 64.3° - 1963 2. 62.2° - 1971 3. 62.1° - 1947 4. 61.9° - 1920 5. 61.4° - 1900 6. 60.8° - 2026 6. 60.8° - 1956 6. 60.8° - 1879 9. 59.8° - 1924 10. 59.7° - 2024 10. 59.7° - 2021 10. 59.7° - 1953

RONI is in line historically, but with the background Pacific state we’re still pushing the limits magnitude wise. I suppose we don’t know what was happening when Erik the Red was frolicking through southern Greenland.

October 2026 finished tied as the 6th warmest October on record in Chicago. Warmest September 1. 64.3° - 1963 2. 62.2° - 1971 3. 62.1° - 1947 4. 61.9° - 1920 5. 61.4° - 1900 6. 60.8° - 2026 6. 60.8° - 1956 6. 60.8° - 1879 9. 59.8° - 1924 10. 59.7° - 2024 10. 59.7° - 2021 10. 59.7° - 1953

Not sure if this was posted here but it’s from tnwx not saying I disagree with everything posted above I think they were also posted over a span of a day or two so could have also changed

Deep extended about as locked in as it gets

The last in a flurry of posts. There is some continuity(over particularly NA) between the EURO LR Ext and the 12z CFS 30d maps for mid Nov to mid Dec....western and central Europe are obviously different.

A lot of things claim that have never happened before, HAVE! Yes, we use the continuous POR from climo sites, but we do have records prior to, say 1872, for BOS when the official climate record begins. And some climate site are quite short, like IAD, which began in 1960. CAR starts in 1939. And you can take it one step further. I've seen statements prior about dozens of sites in TX have their warmest month or highest temp, and I looked and the long-term climate sites like DFW or HOU did not. Well, that stat came from all the new AWOS METAR sites installed since 2001 in the state, and there have been well over 100 and still sites are been added to this day, so you have a POR 25 years or less for all these sites, so of course records are broken easier for not so extreme temps! But that part of it is left out of the narrative! And this is the case for a lot of the U.S. Over 1000 AWOS sites installed starting in the early 90s for many states. And add in all the state mesonet networks now. OK was the first, and many have followed. And for rainfall, the CoCoRaHS network, which was not a thing until 1998.

I don't think we'd really see a ton of temperature rug pulls. Instead, our "shit the blinds" pattern will be one where we watch storms take a perfect track but have no cold air on the continent. The pattern means it won't be a particular surprise when they fail. Just look at that storm as an example. Where would the cold air come from? There's not even a 540 height line near the precipitation. Now, if you get a shot of cold air from a favorable PNA phase then you can get your classic rug pulls (storm track, precipitation, north trend, etc). Didn't post the temperature map but it has most of western VA at 35 degrees and we've experienced 2 degrees fahrenheit of warming. Wonder if it would've been a snowstorm in the before times.

MU Winter Forecast is out: Temps at least 4 to 7 degrees AN in December. Temps 2 to 4 degrees AN in January and February. Enhanced chance of a big dog winter storm between 1/20 and 2/20. Total snowfall in Lanco: 20-30".

Not even close. Just asking to get your face ripped off trying to short sell that.