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  2. EastCoast NPZ
    Ring of Fire week of mid 90s in September produces not a single drop of rain here. Not one.
  3. LakePaste25
    As I said yesterday, despite the “pause” in Nino 3.4 in August, it has become significantly more east-based regardless.
  4. WxWatcher007
    Looks like a very near miss to me. I had flights and hotels pulled up yesterday though.
  5. Brian5671
    Such a storm today would be unreal with regard to damage
  6. Stormchaserchuck1
    Similarities to 2025. That's what I thought you meant when responding to my post. Edit: nevermind, I see the PNA was negative 3/4 months last year. We are also following 2024 close with the 90N Summer +AO and that had this DJF PNA 1.70 2025 1.05 1.41 80-90N ridging in the Winter sometimes will pop a low south of it, over the Aleutian islands. That's what I mean by +PNA coming from the arctic
  7. Stormchaserchuck1
    That's what the model predicted. I'm not talking about the Great Lakes.
  8. GaWx
    Nino 1+2 is very warm, but Adam’s post: -is ignoring the effect of GW on skewing Nino 1+2 upward in 2026 vs 1997. The highest relative weekly in 1997 was +4.1 (set twice). Relative values for Nino 1+2 are currently 0.5 or more cooler than the non-relatives. NOAA and other orgs have recently been using relative values as official because of the skewing caused by GW. -He’s looking at yesterday’s daily rather than at a weekly average, which is what the historical data is based on. -These OISST charts have recently been warmer than the released NOAA weeklies as has been noted in many posts since July. -Let’s see what this Monday shows for relative Nino 1+2 averaged over this week. I doubt it will reach +4.1, but we’ll see. I’m guessing high 3s.
  9. Eskimo Joe
    It's likely the hail core interfering with the radar beam. Note how the broad rotation is behind the best VIL.
  10. Stormlover74
    There were 2 tornadoes within the derecho
  11. LibertyBell
    I thought that was a tornado outbreak. That's how my mind remembers that event anyway. Didn't we have another one around Memorial Day weekend in the same year?
  12. Cobalt
    almost that time of year. GEFS is hinting at a pattern favorable for early season snow cover advance, but time will tell on that.
  13. stormy
    The HRRR shows nothing for Augusta/Rockingham thru 4 pm. It is wrong as convection is firing Staunton to Harrisonburg. The NAM 3k is on the money. Sorry to lose it.
  14. LibertyBell
    By all accounts the 1821 hurricane that hit NYC on this date was even worse. A Cat 4 right into NJ and a Cat 3 up to NYC and a direct hit! Our own Labor Day hurricane before Labor Day even existed!
  15. LibertyBell
    We need at least 2 weeks of uninterrupted sunshine. I'm going to enjoy hearing people who whined about this summer being hot are shocked when next summer is 3-5 degrees hotter. This wasnt a hot summer, mostly just humid and wet. We better hit 90 for my birthday on September 15th!
  16. LakePaste25
    Like yeah…the PDO might alter pacific storm tracks, but it’s on the scale of 0s to 10s of miles, not 100s to 1000s. Same way that Canadian snow cover might force baroclinicity southward, so an individual snowstorm might track over the turnpike rather than I-80. But it’s not going to stop a cutter from going to the Ohio valley. It’s a bit ridiculous that the PDO is being discussed so much in this thread when you actually have a record breaking Nino that *will* actually alter the long wave pattern by *thousands* of miles.
  17. LibertyBell
    This is MUCH better than yesterday was.
  18. LibertyBell
    Can't have nice crisp Fall weather with soggy miserable foggy weather either. Endless sunshine is needed.
  19. AnEndlessMaze
    0.42” from the storms this morning but skies are clear now. 82 degrees here.
  20. BobbyHolikWillFindYou
    I saw the line coming in before I went to bed last night, but how bad were the winds? My Ambient is showing 13mph gust around 3am. Very surprised to see the backyard littered with leaves this morning.
  21. chubbs
    Martz isn't an expert on glaciers, geology or Nepal. Pictures of the area in question from the blog I linked above show evidence of melting: 1) The glacier has shrunk quite a bit since 2017 and 2) the glacier isn't the pristine white of unmelted snow. The storymap that I also linked contains the following paragraph about local temperatures: Temperature data from nearby climate stations installed by University of Potsdam show the region has been very warm in the past weeks and months. In addition to the high temperatures across the network, station NPA6 (located approximately 20km from the source area, at 85.28567°N, 28.23455°E) shows rapid temperature increases in the morning in the three days prior to the event, which aligns with the timing of failure (8.37AM Nepal time). These quick temperature swings are a key driver for frost cracking and glacial instability. Bodo Bookhagen (Professor at Uni-Potsdam, Germany) notes that these rapid temperature swings are not evident in the other network sites, indicating this was likely a local event. Let me be clear though, its too early to say whether this event was climate related. That's an expert call.
  22. LakePaste25
    The PDO index has none/negligible effect on the long wave pattern. There isn’t a really a reason to RONI it except for record keeping purposes. It’s a fully extratropical index.
  23. forkyfork
  24. gravitylover
    .4 today, 1.8 event and 1.9 for 7 days. Not as much as some but it's plenty soggy.
  25. GaWx
    I’m not aware of a relative PDO. Like the SOI and IOD, I don’t think relative is needed for these 3 indices because all 3 are based on differences between different areas that I assume largely cancel out any effect from GW. I do see why there are now two NOAA PDOs: yours is based on ERSST version 5 whereas mine is based on ERSST version 6, the newest version. How about that for adding to confusion? With 6 being the newest ERSST, I assume that it is the most official for NOAA PDO now.
  26. high risk
    The front is slower than had been shown, so the updated Day2 has expanded the SLGT back to the north. Still tons of CAM disagreement (of course).
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