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71 / 56 sunny. Looks like another great day. Rain chances 3 of the next 7 days and we'll see if its a widespread >0.5 - >1.00 -2.00 tomorrow - still seems focussed a bit north. Near / below normal Mon - Tue, moderate to normal wed-thu then next shot at showers/storms - rain Fri into sat morning, otherwise next weekend look great. Slow build warmth to close the month on a potentially hot note and carry an warm-hot overall beyond there - looks a widespread warm - hot period nationwide.

0z looked great. 6z much less so. It’s bouncing around. Maybe we can end on a good bounce for once since Memorial Day.

Euro a region wide soaker dendrite south. These systems are so difficult to model.

06” from showers the last 24 hours. 59 cloudy Happy Father’s Day to all you Fathers!

Models all over. I wonder if synoptic rains north and then another max near low track. Hrrr kind of had that.

NAM is also way better this morning. Shifted the heavy rain that was over pa down into our area. Level 2 for excessive rainfall as well.

Big shift to a negative tendency last few days as we see a more Niña-like pattern again for a time near the end of the month.

00z HRRR is wetter for many, but no severe. I'll take it.

US National Weather Service State College PA Favorites ·teSdronops6g5606i21i856gif3im7269a1u63t2cff0aa30mluai700ih91 · Sun - June 21, 2026 @ 6 AM EDT: We'll have pleasant weather to end the holiday weekend with comfortably warm temperatures, low humidity and plenty of sun. Humidity will significantly increase late tonight and Monday as a strong southerly flow develops ahead of low pressure headed our way from the Midwest. In additional to periods of steady rain, the risk for severe thunderstorms will develop across the Southeastern half of the state. There will also be a tornado threat with the stronger storms. A more southern track to the area of low pressure would decrease the region where severe thunderstorms are possible.

Mesos are way north up here….globals SNE. Interesting.

The wait is over. After today, shorter days until late December. One thing I'm noticing is, despite chances for AN temps among some models, I'm not seeing any all out furnace runs...not yet at least. Happy Fathers Day to all the fathers out there.

Happy Summer! Actually, daylight starts to shorten less than a second today as sun angle heads back toward winter.....sunrise: 5:42am; sunset 8:40pm in Frederick.

Looks wet tomorrow.

Father’s Day / Solstice sunrise this morning in Rye, NH

WB 6Z 3K NAM and RRFS

Not for long

NAM trended south over our area for heavy rain tomorrow. 1-2" across the area. Fingers crossed

Great post! Averaging out Dec-Feb, it doesn't really look too much different from the NMME in the east. I don't care about its forecast for the rest of the world.

0Z Canadian and GFS- as we move closer to the event once again the trend is dryer

I'm not really using 1986-1987 per se, but like that overall progression......mild December prior to mid season shift colder.

Nice post, raindance. I'm not sold on a non-winter, either.

The only year that has cold ENSO-->warm ENSO, very +NAO, very -WPO in March is 1986. For winter, that's - +NAO & AO early (Oct-Dec), -NAO late (Jan-Mar) -WPO early (Oct-Dec), +WPO late (Jan-Mar) +PNA (Dec-Mar) -EPO (Jan-Feb), +EPO (Mar) Signal Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar NAO + + + - - - AO + + + - - - PNA + - + + + + EPO + + ? - - + WPO - - - + + + That's a good pattern for storms nationally, volatile but warm for temps for most of the USA. +NAO - For Oct, warm Plains and East. Neutral West & Deep South for Oct. Warm signal strongest over Missouri. For Nov, warm signal strongest SE US, warm signal eastern 1/3 of the USA. Weak cold signal TX to WA state. +AO is similar in Oct-Nov, but a broader warm signal for the Midwest in October. -NAO/AO in Jan-Mar - cold everywhere. Strongest in March. +PNA - very warm signal for the Western US in October. Weak cold signal in the Eastern US. Netural Plains. -PNA Nov - cold signal Western and Northern US, warm signal Southern & Eastern US. Strong signal Northwest and Deep South. +PNA Dec-Mar. Broadly cold for the South and East in Dec, Jan, Feb, Mar. But strongest signal and widest significant spatial correlation in Nov-Jan. +EPO is a cold signal for the entire US east of the West Coast in Oct-Nov. Strongly so east of the Rockies. -EPO is a strong warm signal for the US outside the Southwest in Jan-Mar, especially in Jan/Mar. Weak cold signal in the SW Jan/Mar, strong in Feb. -WPO Oct is very cold in the middle 2/3 of the US, neutral coasts (think Oct 2020). Cold east for Nov - weak. Strong cold signal NE US in Dec. +WPO is a weak cold SW/warm NE signal in Jan, and then much stronger for both components in Feb/Mar. These are the years with the 1986-87 projection for the main signals. Oct: +NAO, +PNA, +EPO - WPO, El Nino: 1957, 1963, 1965, 1969, 1976, 1986, 1987, 2015, 2018 Nov: +NAO, -PNA, +EPO, -WPO, El Nino: 1982, 1986, 2019 Dec: +NAO, +PNA, ?EPO, -WPO, El Nino: 1986, 2014 Jan: -NAO, +PNA, -EPO, +WPO, El Nino: 1957, 1986, 1991, 2002, 2009, 2015 Feb: -NAO, +PNA, -EPO, +WPO, El Nino: 1951, 1963, 1976, 1986, 1997, 2009 Mar: -NAO, +PNA, +EPO, +WPO, El Nino: 1957, 1986, 1987, 2023 Honestly looks...plausible? Something like this overall - it'd be a 0-1F colder nationally for Jan-Mar v. Dec-Feb but very similar.

When the cell was maxing near S Wey. earler

I can smell the rain , but I'm left high and dry at home so far. The ground was still wet when I left Mechanicsburg, but it was completely dry when I got home. I'm pretty sure that I heard one rumble of thunder while out in my shed about 25 minutes ago, but I didn't see any lightning and nothing was detected. Some rain before the wild raspberries start to abort and lightning bugs peak, sure as hell would be nice. Some of the main things that I grade my summer on are convection, heat, humidity, frogs, lightning bugs and raspberries all are in danger of being extremely lackluster, this summer, and it's really starting to f****** p*** me off.

Probabilities of all severe hazards seemed to go up significantly between the 6z and 12z runs. Definitely worthy of a watch for the next couple of days.