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Does Will come out of hibernation tomorrow?

Just got back from Boston. It was gorgeous there. 40F with snow covered mountains here yikes

Just to be clear, I wasnt aiming that at you. Was at prior posts by some others. I certainly expect less cold/lake snow intrusions than last year. We had snow like 25 days in a row last jan/feb. I think some near the Lake Superior shore might have had 2-3 days total in a 90 day period with no snowflakes. Definitely see less of that this winter. I personally do unfortunately think its a winter of low snowfall totals in the Lakes...but again, low is not no lol. If Marquette managed a winter under 100" the locals would say it was a non winter. For Detroit im guessing around 30"ish for now.

Any thoughts about the PV weakening and reversing circulation, watched an interview with Judah Coen yesterday and was very intriguing was saying November 4th thru the 14th was the timeframe.

I would not be surprised if it does not occur until late December or even January. We have a historic nino on our hands, i bet we struggle to get a sufficiently cold shot in December.

The fall colors are actually solid at this point. Still a ways to go before peak but the maples especially are killing it with low amounts of leaf drop:

Why do it when it's windy Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

So winter cancel? Some of you will eventually eat crow. I believe in Ray.

Yes this talk of cold is hilarious. There is no cold . North America is covered with mild to warm Pacific air . Even a trough brings us AN air

I’m not and never had said places like the lakes and north east mountains we’re in the game for low snow totals. The mid Atlantic coast sure. If you average over 100” the chances of less then 20” are close to zero. It will snow there. My point is without arctic air lake effect is essentially shut off. The Canadian plains are well above normal on the long range models, meaning no cold air source for lake effect. (In the short term) .

Wouldn't the question be how did they do in 2015-16? I mean, im refuting the absurd ideas of a snowless winter; in fact, I actually said multiple times we probably see one big torch month. Marquette 160.9" (dec 18.9") Grand Rapids 61.1" (dec 2.5") Detroit 35.3" (dec 1.3") Even in an all time warm December like 2015, it snowed. Just much less than usual.

Not to mention....1972 and 2015 featured such a dearth of snow up here due to supression during colder intervals, NOT continuously prohibitive warmth. Now we expect a STJ displaced futher to the north as a byproduct of CC, which I think is a net gain up here despite a warmer mean. Christ, give me the keystone event of the season further north if it means the season is +7 instead of +5.

Snapped a Pic today of a straggler butterfly.

Winchester averages more than Leesburg, IAD and Fairfax. Closer to 25. The area around Shawneeland in Frederick County Va averages up over 30 + at 2k.

The latest delay in cold arriving is bad news for the Killington world cup race on Thanksgiving. They can even think about making snow until the week of the 11th and then its a back and forth with warmth.

How did the snow belts do in December 2015? .

Snow flies in the Great Lakes all the time. Its not uncommon to have snow fall daily for weeks straight in Great Lakes cities. Detroit, a city in the Great Lakes but not in the snowbelt, averages 37 days annually with measurable snow and when you add in the dozens of traces a typical season sees about 70-80 days where snow is observed from first flakes to last. You can imagine the averages IN the snow belts (Marquette averages 93 days with measurable snow, not even counting traces). These assertions that it wont snow or won't snow til February are ridiculous. I thought id seen it all when last winter people were ignoring frozen landscapes and ongoing blizzards in their backyards to discuss warmth out west (a region that never previously garnered interest), but we are definitely going to be in for some freaky stuff this winter. No snow in Marquette! Flirting with 90 in Jan in nyc! Can't wait to see what's next.

Another 10/10 fall day

Of course

I was asked to compare PHL Airport vs East Nantmeal Twp. In the western philly burbs of Chester County PA for climate since 2004. (see full panel below) Summer afternoons: PHL’s highs run 5.4–6.3°F warmer from June through September. Against the whole county the gap was mainly at night; against East Nantmeal it’s mainly in the daytime. That fits what the siting check found: my fan-aspirated Davis VP2 records cooler highs. Elevation adds to it. Overnight lows: PHL is warmer every month, from 2.8°F in April to 5.1°F in August. Rain and snow: Precipitation: East Nantmeal gets 50.35" a year to PHL’s 45.56". It’s wetter in most months, especially July (5.62" vs 4.66"). Snow: East Nantmeal averages 35.8" a season against 22.7" at PHL, about 58% more. EN had more snow than PHL in all 22 seasons. February shows the biggest difference: 13.4" vs 8.4". Is the temperature gap widening? Yes. It has grown about 0.46°F per decade, mostly in daytime highs (+0.64). PHL warmed about 1.0°F per decade over these 22 years, against 0.55 at East Nantmeal. I will post up Chester County as a whole later. Let me know if any questions. Thanks!

Lake effect is a function of Arctic air moving over the warm lakes. With a flood of pacific air lake effect is shut off. One thing the warm air should do is prevent cooling and ice formation. If we do see Arctic intrusions later in the season lake effect would be on the table and later then climatology. .

hm not aware of any teleconnectors for the latter half of November but from 7th to 16th or so, that's not really a cold pattern. The teleconnectors for that earlier time range are indeed -AO/+PNA ...but this is one of those situations where the numerology is lying about the super synoptic aspects, and the actual mean spatial layout. The +PNA is almost all being caused by strong neg anomalies NE of Hawaii...but the flow subtending down stream over the Conus is very zonal... so it's misleading to some degree. As to the -AO...that's suspicious too. The actual orientation of the heights/contouring show an annular structure about the AO domain, but the domain itself happens to have modest positive anomalies. That's the problem with using strictly the geopotential anomalies to compute the orthogonal/eof derivatives, particularly when the heights everywhere are about a coffee break from kicking off the super extinction event heh seriously, it's closer to an annular flow type just happening to be above normal.

Wonder if anbody stopped and wondered what will happen if they issue a stop-payment on their subscription?