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I'd say having the initial development happen further southwest in warmer waters, which could allow for the low at the start to have more tropical characteristics (deeper warm core, persistent convection closer to the center, banding features). The further north it heads however the more purely baroclinic it's going to be given SSTs, and the capture would just hasten the full transition to a typical extratropical nor'easter. At the end of the day however, the impacts wouldn't be substantively different unless this were leaning tropical and then scooting north imo. All that said, I think it's unlikely to ever be designated, even if it looked good. Recent history shows that the NHC tends to be slow on these. Did you know that October 2021 became Subtropical Storm Wanda? It happened days after it delivered legitimate C1 wind gusts and damage to the coast. Last September saw a low that was probably subtropical given its appearance in its final hours before "landfall", but it never got designated. Quite a temperature contrast. For the most part, our region is much warmer than normal, but this is what it gets you. Isn't 24C around the usual line for subtropical development?

Beautiful fall day. Took the boat for a sail and a stiff NE wind was perfect. Mainly 12-18 mph, maybe a stray gust to 20

What caused the artificial cooling at BDR?

WB 18Z 3K NAM

Drinking a Fear Imperial Pumpkin ale. The only one I really like. So many crappy ones lol.

Quarks fascinated me and have fascinated me ever since I was 12 years old and read Stephen Weinberg's book on them. Did you know Quark stars might exist, they would be an intermediate point between neutron stars and black holes. And aside from holding fractional charges (called color charge because the fractional charges are in Thirds, like additive primary colors RGB that combine to produce white, while their corresponding antiquarks are like subtractive primaries CMY which combine to produce black) something that's amazing in itself, did you know that the gluons which bind them actually increase their force with distance? This seems like a paradox but becomes easier to understand if you view gluons like rubber bands, the farther two bound Quarks get from each other the tighter the rubber band gluons bind them. Another curious fact about quarks is that they are MUCH more massive than the subatomic particles they create. This is because some of the mass of the quark gets converted into binding energy that helps gluons hold them together. The strong nuclear force that helps bind them using gluons reminds me of gravity on a much smaller scale and gluons remind me of gravitons. Combining gravity with the strong nuclear force is analogous to Combining the electromagnetic force with the weak nuclear force (electroweak force) which was done in the late 70s now creating a 2x2 duality that brings us halfway to unifying the four forces!

Picked up .35" from a couple storms over the weekend here.

It's amazing how much different our precip can be for being only 45 miles apart. Especially since there's basically no elevation difference, a nearby Great Lake, or other influences. I've had 5.12" in the past six days and you are super dry.

Deep mind sort of exhibiting the two-cluster deal too. Actually more spread vs 06z IMO.

Meanwhile, down in the home of hurricanes, seas are calm and the breeze is light. Perfect beach weather.

Congratulations Winchester!!!!!! I'm still DRY.

I'm so pleased that I logged in for the first time all year.

Not living with cold ocean surrounding us ...

Added 0.67" last night, 3.61" for the month. Some pretty damned good weather today.

Good soaker on Euro .

that is a monster LLJ too on the Euro...and one that encompasses a large geographic area

No

not watching the end of the mets season?

I'm right on the Iredell/Rowan border right off HWY 801,youre a good 3 or 4 miles from me.That can make a huge difference when it comes to pop up t-storms.

What scenarios would increase the chances of a hybrid/warm core system? Spending more time over water? Moving north quicker rather than just rotting offshore? A more pronounced capture?

Yeah, it's pretty clear that it won't be the 3-5 day event that guidance had been showing, but most of us should still get a nice soaking between now and Wednesday morning. (And there could even be a backdoor sneak attack from the coastal on Saturday if you want to buy into the ECMWF.)

Yes! Lets light this candle!