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Cape's going to luuuuuuuuv your posting that map. Lol

For sure.

It’s been great. Enjoy it…the misery mist and cold rain of November is coming for us all.

I'm not seeing the complete suite off the Euro cluster ... but, the GEFs I've always used do not indicate an SSW... There's some wild confusion going on, as some folks among this social media, and outside of it, are seemingly not even aware of their confusion: appears just just wrongly attributable in what is going on.... First of all, warm thermal events pop off in the PV/stratospheric altitudes, all the time. Seldom are they down propagators after the fact, a key behavioral component in the Sudden Stratospheric Warming defined phenomenon. The modeling presentation I've found at https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/ (NCEP/GFS Analyses and Forecasts) provides a means ( though could be improved ) to deduce if in situ outlooks for warming at those respective levels ( y-axis of the above annotated graph) may be destined to downwell. Note the unit conversion from MB to hPa (millibars to hectopascals) a conversion they do to be consistent with SI units. When you see an warm sudden introduction in the 1 thru 10 hPa, then look at the 30 --> 50 --> 70 ...etc, out in time. If the pretty red blob of the polar stereographic thermal anomaly layout are then subsequently introducing the warmth, that is at least a 'reasonable' implication of an actual downward welling behavior. If you don't see that... it's probably an event that is like this... Ie., no propagation. Having defined/illustrated these different types of stratospheric warm event basics ... just as a knowledge aspect, there does not appear to be a temperature extreme/amplitude dependency in whether an event is a propagator or not. As this image above, I carefully choose to show - it contains both irrelevant perturbed warm introductions, but the last in the series there very late in the spring of 2007, vaguely suggested there was a downward mass propagation. The key take away is the down ward movement. We are thus using the temperature fields to infer a wave mechanics that will eventually become interesting to the stratosphere-troposphere coupled science. There may be amplitude requirement at in this latter aspect - intuitively that's no brainer. A weak downward temperature signal ... prooooobably is indicative of a weak collapsing PV ..which then weakly correlates to AO modality. Otherwise, no propagation, no crucially defined SSW event. Now, if we want to call any warm protuberance that introduces itself at all ... like those spanning that winter of 2007, as a SSW? we do so at risk of confusing and conflating the two disparate systemically effective events - like what sounds like is happening now... I did go over the modeled GFS hPa levels wrt time ... it appears around 240 hours, there is a moderate 10 hPa warm emergence, but subsequent time intervals at successively lower levels do not present any propagating behavior. That can change - sure. We're not excluding the possibility that an actual SSW will happen this year in the unusually early November window. Just not seeing it right now. Having said all that... look at the 70 and 100 hPas... There's something else happening, already, ...partly I suspect is contributing to some folks misconception of what's going on. There is a coherent warm anomaly that is all but statically occurring in those lower stratospheric levels... That is is not SSW, but... I believe it is related to CC invading the fix hPa aspect of the monitoring system... speculation -

A general 0.30" of rain from the shwrs/stms that moved through yesterday evening in the TH area. Nice to get some precip.

775 NWUS53 KDLH 282303 LSRDLH Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Duluth MN 603 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0540 PM Tornado 3 SE Danbury 45.98N 92.33W 10/28/2026 Burnett WI Public Weak, brief rotation on the ground, kicking up small branches, leaves, and water as the rotation passed over Love Lake. No damage as of now. && $$ KML

if data need to be corrected and aren't, the data are incorrect

Next week's system may need to be watched for a severe threat. Very dynamic system developing over the plains it seems. We will be firmly in the warm sector

That whole scene is all about clicks and views and why forums will always be goated for real heads. When joe or someone else drops knowledge here its for pure love of the game

These beautiful days, man

Places in TN have been colder than you. Tri Cities airport hit 33° this month.

yeah but overall it's been warm and dry outside of a few days

Yesterday wasn’t torchy here. And Tuesday wasn’t either. Today will be warmer though.

If anything is fake…it’s that. Most everybody else has froze. But, as I pointed out yesterday, there is nothing fake about any sensible weather. Including your hill top not frosting yet. It’s real. Just as everyone else’s freezes are real.

Another week or so of dry weather and torchy afternoons

It’s been awesome . Just fire and warm. All realness . Nothing fake

October 29 2004: Exceptionally muggy conditions for October are felt over much of the state. Dew points surged into the middle to upper 60's over central and southern Minnesota. Ladybugs are extremely active. 1955: Early snow hits the Twin Cities, accumulating to 2.2 inches. 1905: Several inches of snowfall accumulate in south central Minnesota. Snow totals included 7 inches at Fairmont, 6 inches at Farmington, 4.5 inches at Montevideo, 4 inches at Faribault, and 3 inches at New London. For Thursday, October 29, 2026 1917 - The temperature at Denver, CO, dipped to zero, and at Soda Butte, WY, the mercury plunged to 33 degrees below zero, a U.S. record for the month of October. (David Ludlum) 1942 - A tornado struck the town of Berryville in northwest Arkansas killing 20 persons and causing half a million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) 1956 - A violent tornado, or series of tornadoes, moved along a path more than 100 miles in length from south of North Platte NE into Rock County NE. It was an unusually late occurence so far north and west in the U.S. for such a storm. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Severe thunderstorms in Arizona produced wind gusts to 86 mph at the Glendale Airport near Phoenix, baseball size hail and 70 mph winds at Wickenburg, and up to an inch of rain in fifteen minutes in Yavapai County and northwest Maricopa County. Arizona Public Service alone reported 2.5 million dollars damage from the storms. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Wintry weather prevailed in the Upper Midwest. South Bend, IN, equalled their record for October with a morning low of 23 degrees. International Falls MN reported a record low of 11 degrees in the morning, then dipped down to 8 degrees above zero late in the evening. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced severe weather in Oklahoma and north central Texas during the late afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms in Oklahoma produced weak tornadoes near Snyder and Davidson, and produced hail two inches in diameter at Altus. Large hail damaged 60 to 80 percent of the cotton crop in Tillman County OK. Nine cities in the northeastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date as readings warmed into the 70s. For Marquette MI it marked their fifth straight day of record warmth. Arctic cold invaded the western U.S. Lows of 7 degrees at Alamosa CO and 9 degrees at Elko NV were records for the date. (The National Weather Summary) 2011 - New York City received one inch of snow, the earliest they had received that much snow since records began. It was also only the fourth times since the Civil War snow had fallen in New York City in October. The storm also left over three million people without power including 62% of the customers of Connecticut Light and Power. Observances: 29 Thu National Oatmeal Day 29 Thu World Psoriasis Day 29 Thu World Stroke Day 29 Thu National Cat Day 29 Thu Internet Day 29 Thu National Hermit Day 29 Thu National Internet Day 29 Thu National Martina Day

we can only hope.

From what I've gleaned from here, ENSO since 1950 had 3 very strong Ninos - 82-83, 97-98 and 15-16. That last was the least snowy of 28 winters here. One of the oddest phenomenon in the 1998 storm occurred in the MWN area. The mountain observations included their highest January temp during the storm (since beaten IIRC), and Gorham had mainly cold rain. In between at 1500-2500 ft asl, trees were destroyed by ice. Another weirdness was observed in West Gardner, where the telephone cable had a line of discrete icicles. Falling trees and breaking poles caused the cable to twist, first pointing the vertical-formed 4-5" icicles toward about 8 o'clock, then after another inch formed, twisting it to about 10:30, producing a long parade of hockey-stick icicles pointing at the sky.

Lol….when I read that a couple days ago, I thought the same. Which was that’s pretty close to normal. Of course he was implying that his temps he mentioned were way above average, which they were not.

another week of dry weather looks likely-very un Nino like

Those are like June lows up there in Tolland.

So many camp fires in the Catoctins it is hard to see with the smoke. But most of the next 5-7 days in the 70's? Time for some chilly weather and a front to clear out the smog.