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home heating oil up 6 percent today.. glad we don't use it but for those that do I'm sure they are hoping for a warm winter..

Curious to see how long I can go wearing shorts. It was chilly outside last evening with shorts and short-sleeve shirt but at least there were no mosquitos!

I’m a little more skeptical of the “back loaded Modoki” idea than I was a month ago given how this keeps evolving. What you’re saying is potentially we see an 82-83 outcome which was exactly that. Only issue is we are east of 82 and even 97 on tao/tritton so it’s difficult to just say go with “basin waters are warmer, so it’s further west” when you also have to account for the actual position of the warmest waters being further east. I think i don’t disagree yet but I need another month to see where OLR’s land vs 82 and 97.

That would be quite the hybrid screamer . I’m all in

My largest lock on 1957 is it occurred right near solar max, which is not as hostile to blocking as descending solar, but that it just one factor.

.28" here overnight. Better than nothing. Lows in the 40's highs in 60 for the next 7 days... pretty average for mid sept.

anyone got Canaan in WV? Probably upper 20s lol.

low of 57 in upper NW, 58 at DCA - first 50s since June I believe.

Well, it was discussed in the main ENSO thread that the JMA actually nailed the Aleutian ridge this summer, which is NOT stock El Nino....frankly, neither is the -NAO that is being flagged by all guidance, even the EURO...so they are seeing something beyond ENSO. I think it's valid, albeit overcooked. We aren't getting a DJFM mean -NAO, but it does speak to the volatility of the coming season.

You know what's funny... In one of my spring classes we were going over the various models and seasonal models and I remember commenting that the CFS was looking like 1957-1958-ish. I now remember at that time thinking that despite potential for a super strong EL Nino, this winter could surprise and deviate greatly from some of the previous events...maybe I need to get back on that train But I have very little trust in these seasonal models really. I think they are weighted on climatological mean/average, especially when ENSO is a big player. So say if the forecast is for a weak event or a strong event...the output is going to closely resemble that of "averaging" weak or strong events but there is alot of variability between individual events and I am not sure these models are built to "understand" that

@GaWxI would say around 120W.

I usually go with orientation at peak as most representative of the winter season, so December should be pretty representative. I agree, CANSIPS is off.

42 this morning. Refreshing

I think we will tap that cold in Siberia for a brief interval or two during the second half.

Compare these to Sep ‘26 warmest JAMSTEC peak period (OND) SSTa longitude of 120-125W, which is between Euro’s 110W and CANSIPS’ 145W. It will be interesting to see which verifies the closest. Do you have a prediction for the warmest longitude at the progged OND peak? Between these 3 model progs, Euro 110W, JAMSTEC 120-125W, and CANSIPS 145W, which do you think will end up the closest?

Yes....maybe a bit of 1965 and 1986, too....though the latter is a poor extra tropical Pacific match.

Yea, I know it will be warm....otherwise I'd be expecting well above average snowfall given the amount of percip. we should see. I think normal snowfall is about our ceiling this year if everything breaks right.

We won the toss in 2016 so I'm predicting we lose it this time, lol We only win the super niño toss every other time!

Thank you. Well I'll be damned, that probably is some Arctic or Polar air being displaced south into the U.S. Well if that is the case...this could set the stage for a very big winter Actually, going from memory here but this kind of has 1957-1958 vibes?

The additional AWOS and METAR sites should be useful for improving local observations, especially in areas with limited nearby reporting. The ID change from K2V5 to KRYA is also worth noting for anyone tracking historical data. Having these updates clearly listed makes it easier to keep weather records and forecasts consistent.

Went to let the dogs out this morning and saw my breath. At 10:54 it is still 55°F currently. That was a fast crash.

@weatherwiz Believe this is what you wanted to see.

Right. Im not sure what is more relevant. Peak or post-peak during the matching winter months. Cansips is obviously wrong with its anomaly position either way and has been correcting each month for the past 6 or so.

Beautiful day for a morning walk....

I'm still playing around with my analog pairing idea, where you can see how recent years (2016-2025) compare to prior periods (e.g., 1951-1980 or 1881-1910) and see what locations had the most similar temperature regimes in those earlier years. Maybe with an ability to incorporate modeling to also include future periods like 2041-2070 or 2071-2100. Like for Philadelphia, you could see the ThreadEx stations with the closest winter climate in 1951-1980 are Baltimore (Downtown), MD; Olympia, WA; Caesars Head, SC; Charlottesville, VA; and Oak Ridge, TN. And the closest 1881-1910 winter climates are Knoxville, TN; Nashville, TN; Louisville, KY; Oklahoma City, OK; and Lewiston, ID. The closest 1951-1980 summer climates are Baltimore (Downtown), MD; Kansas City, MO; Norfolk, VA; Elizabeth City, NC; and Myrtle Beach, SC. And for 1881-1910 summers, St. Louis, MO; Norfolk, VA; Wilmington, NC; Raleigh, NC; and Nashville, TN. Or if we only allow locations whose mean temperatures in those periods are at least as high as recent Philadelphia temperatures, then the closest matches are: