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Arlington side roads now completely iced over. KDFW down to 21 and getting moderate to heavy sleet.

This is a negative post

Maybe 0.1" freezing rain with close to an inch of sleet. 29F right now with colder temps moving in from the west and north. We may see 2" sleet with this first round. I expected the first round to be mainly freezing rain around here so great sign that it's 50/50 or even leaning more to sleet. Round 2 should be all sleet turning to snow tomorrow morning.

Being in the coastal plain here, When the temps are marginal and we get wet snow, Its usually 6-7:1 based on measurement and LE, 10:1 is a good baseline.

Hrrrrr just shows though how hanging on even for an extra couple hours is huge. Fun times ahead can be a lot of positive surprises and obv negative ones as well

HRRR with over a foot for a bunch of people by 9PM Sunday

If you get rain, I'll walk to your house, shovel your driveway.... then walk home.

living and dying by hrrr runs 24 hours from game time is a recipe for not having fun.

H R cubed FTW

First nowcast report. Snow shield looks further north on radar than modeled. Des Moines reporting light snow. Yes, I’m that guy.

I do sorta feel like a kid before Christmas right now. I've been flying high for a couple days. Really enjoyable when things improve, then hold and you get the days of fun looking at models and all the storm hype in the community etc.

You know...f some of you guys with your constant negative interpretations of every fucking model run. Give it a rest at some point

Long range HRRR finally getting a clue and sending the sleet line up to I-78, but quickly washes it out and sends it back south.

downtown little rock is snowed/iced in. 10 degrees! wow.

OH and CTP still over a foot lol

If 13z went out as far, it would be different. The US mesoscale sweet is literal trash outside of 25%-40% its range. (HRRR hr 12, Nam/3k hr 36, rap and RRFS hour 0)

Hoar

Will use this if you are doing HRRR pbp

Our daughter is a lift operator and has a shift for Sunday 3-closing and 7:30-3 on Monday. I hope they close or at least delay Monday's start. Roads will be awful

My forecast says 7-13”. 7” could happen with a lot of sleet. Higher totals with less sleet would actually be easier to deal with.

Closer to the high pressure/cold source region. I'm confident 80% of us mix at some point. The I-84 crew will probably avoid it-I hope anyway.

HRRR cuts snow totals a bit for southern tier counties due to sleet encroachment but still ~10". Sets up a Route 30 battle zone through much of the late afternoon. Rates likely to determine precip type, but one thing that is becoming clear, those of us down this way will indeed see some sleet during the height of the storm, perhaps significantly so. I just never trust the globals to properly capture the warm noses and it seems it may have happened again. Positive spin, as others have alluded, some sleet on top of a nice thump just adds to pack retention. High impact event no matter how you slice it.

Wedges are the really the only setup in the CLT area where you will commonly observe falling temps during the daytime....even with a strong arctic front from the NW, downsloping normally keeps this from occurring until the sun sets at KCLT