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  2. LakePaste25
    This is true, but tropical convection isn’t decided by absolute SSTs alone. It’s relative to global mean tropical SSTs. Assuming the negative SSTAs materialize in the W pacific, the gradient between the negative SSTAs and the 30C waters shifted east of the dateline is what matters. You can’t really use 2016 or 2024 as an analog for this because such a gradient did not exist, and thus the convection was still present well west of the dateline. If the CFS does not materialize, and the W pac SSTAs are not below normal or closer to normal, then there’s a stronger argument for more persistent convection well west of the Dateline.
  3. bluewave
    The one difference from that forecast SST chart is how much warmer all the ocean basins are forecast to be than April 1998.
  4. GaWx
    Mid July ‘25 CFSv2 2m fcast for winter 25-6: 8/1/25 Euro 2m fcast for winter 25-6: Actual 2m for winter 25-6: So, these 2 were much too cold in the E US, pretty close central, and not nearly warm enough W, especially in/near Rockies. W coast though was fairly close.
  5. bluewave
    It’s as if we are starting to see some of the higher end El Niños that weren’t forecast to repeat only a few years apart until later in this century. But the strength of the La Ninas hasn’t been really increasing. So this goes to show how much work we need to do on more accurate climate modeling. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-64619-0
  6. canderson
    I have tickets to a show at Merriweather (in Columbia) Tuesday. I’m kinda planning ahead on not driving the 90 miles S only to get soaking wet and deal with delay after delay. If anyone might be interested in Death Cab for Cutie tickets shoot me a message and we’ll see what transpires Tuesday (hopefully this gets punted into Wednesday am … )
  7. LakePaste25
    The CFS is starting to catch on to the idea of this event running its course (just like 97-98) with W pac cool anomalies showing up. This would be the first time in over a decade that we’ve seen this to a significant degree.
  8. snowman19
    Yes, this event is very east-based/EP just like 1997. In fact, 1997 is by far the best ENSO analog for this event
  9. canderson
    Had to map Elimsport - a new one for me!
  10. George001
    Yeah, this El Niño is developing like a stronger version of the 97-98 super Nino.
  11. WxWatcher007
    Recon is out there now and no surprise there is a well defined LLC. Should help with future modeling.
  12. bluewave
    Becoming more east based since June 15th with Nino 1+2 approaching +4 as these record WWBs keep coming.
  13. George001
    I’m not sure why you got roasted for that. Imo, the base assumption for 27-28 should be a fairly powerful La Niña until proven otherwise. We haven’t had a strong La Niña since the 10-11 winter, but I would not be surprised at all if that changes come fall 2027.
  14. Nibor
    I know the AQI isn’t perfect with some wildfire smoke in the air but it is beautiful out today.
  15. A-L-E-K
    Monday got some miss west/south stink
  16. snowman19
    Completely agree. IMO this is going to easily be the strongest super El Niño in history on the RONI and the traditional ONI for both peak and trimonthly average. I also think the August MEI goes above +2 and it would not surprise me at all if we tie or exceed the strongest MEI month on record sometime this fall or winter (*which I believe is +2.9 back during the 1982-83 super Niño*). I’m sure @GaWx has the actual MEI stats for that
  17. BombsAway1288
    Fleeting? What’s fleeting? My extended doesn’t get above 82 for the next 10 days minimum. Pretty nice for the climatologically hottest part of the year
  18. kdxken
    Yep! Another month or so.
  19. mappy
    I think we’ve had that convo before, how close our parents are And that makes sense. My sister’s house off Edwin Raynor, north of 100 and Mountain Road, had a lot more damage with down trees and such.
  20. Eskimo Joe
  21. Today
  22. kdxken
    It's perfect. Feels like September.
  23. Keith Central PA
    There we go ,couldnt agree more
  24. lee59
    A few days ago this system was predicted to go east across Florida and impact the southeast. Quite a change
  25. Elim72
    .82 in Elimsport yesterday. We missed all the weather violence.
  26. LakePaste25
    I don’t think anyone here is saying it’s not going to snow, or that there won’t necessarily be a big storm. But I think it’s an easy call that next winter will be both warmer and wetter than the previous 2 winters on the coastal plain. Here on the Great Lakes, probably warmer and drier.
  27. mitchnick
    By the way, why didn't you bother to post the Cfs2 temp forecast for the 23/24 winter. Since we're nearing the end of July, this is what it had from the 8/1/23-8/10/23 period. Pretty warm (and not very Niño canonical), isn't it?
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