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Just make sure it doesn't spill over into the Indian Ocean and produce a +WPO

Why is “yes” a question mark?! Change it to a “check mark”.

At some point, all of that warmth in region 4 is going to produce a Modoki season.

Looks like some decent showers from Ellington CT down to Norwich area, missing just to my west

Pouring now. With hay laying .07 in less than 3 minutes.

Another interesting thing will be the Feb-March PNA. This 9-year period is the most extreme anomaly for any 9-year period on records over the last 120 years.

The weekend will conclude with fair and warm conditions. Highs will mainly reach the lower 80s. Monday and Tuesday will be cooler days. Rain is likely on Monday into Monday night. The potential exists for a general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall. No excessive heat appears likely through at least June 25th. A warming trend could commence during or after the next weekend. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +2.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.3°C for the week centered around June 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.95°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.98°C. The ongoing El Niño will continue to strengthen through the summer. The SOI was -5.98 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.112 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 82% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 73.7 (1.7° above normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.3° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Tons around here too.

Yea, well....we did just see a 2013-2014 type of pattern last year, so who knows.

I think we are the furthest thing from seeing west-based Nino patterns decadally, despite general warming in Nino 4. Another question is if the North Pacific High weakens this year. It's like a 5 std "PDO" vs 5 std east-based El Nino. Interesting!

In the seasonal mean, sure....DJFM isn't averaging -NAO...not a huge leap of faith. But we just need one. month to average -NAO.

Meh, wagons East with the precip. HRRR was more correct

I find it interesting that last year had an SST profile that mimicked a Modoki set up, but the competing MC influence combined with the +WPO ended up making the pattern look east based. Some of the guidance this year is implying that while the SST may look more east-based, the warm pooling pulling more eastward with potentially a more favorable WPO may result in a more Modoki pattern. Tricky how CC modifies these traditional relationships.

June 2023 forecast looked pretty different.

Yeesh. Almost every neighbor on our street is having some sort of party today. If these hold..

Was this in any forecast?

There are much better options now than when I got diagnosed, so hopefully they give you some good options, every case seems to be different and you'll learn to know what works and what doesn't. Take care and good luck!

Same. Never seen it so bad this early. August sure, but not June

I would love a -NAO with Super Nino STJ. Unfortunately, something like 14 Winters in a row have been +NAO (CPC). AO going negative has been easier to achieve. We will also likely have strong +QBO which strengthens the Stratosphere PV.

Winter 26-27 with averaged - NAO . Also. Appears a weakened or displaced PV

I think 95% of us MidAtl/Northeastern would take that all day--sold! Lol

Nice day at the lake beach today in Saratoga. Cleared out about an hour or two ago. Almost time to go to treehouse brewing and grab a beer

it has but some act like its been 90 plus for weeks with high dews.. it really hasn't been that bad other that one crappy week

another great week coming up!! This Afternoon A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 5pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. West wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tonight A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 7pm. Mostly clear, with a low around 53. West wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Sunday A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 3pm and 5pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 76. West wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Sunday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 7pm. Increasing clouds, with a low around 53. Light west wind. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Monday Showers likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 5pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 71. Calm wind becoming southeast around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Monday Night Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 1am, then showers likely. Low around 55. East wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Tuesday A chance of showers before 8am. Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. Northwest wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 55. Northwest wind 3 to 5 mph. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 81. Northwest wind 3 to 5 mph. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 57. Calm wind. Thursday A chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. Calm wind becoming southwest around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday Night A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Friday Showers likely. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. Calm wind becoming south 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Friday Night Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Saturday A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 78.

I think ORH only averages something like 3 90+ per year? it has been warm. Not debatable