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The answer to that question will soon be "February 2026."

The AI version has moved 1000 miles in the past 24 hours

This storm needs to shit or get off the pot.

oh way less maybe a foot or so. long island did better. but not that much.

Man-would you all agree that this is either gonna be double digits or bust??... that's just what it seems like to me. With a couple of the models having this type of strengthening I don't think there's gonna be any "in between". I guess the only concern would be "white rain" if temps don't get low enough

Corresponding precip map looks encouraging.

Wow.

These are some grim dreary post apocalyptic feeling days stringing along here can't wait for the sun

Lol, this is a weird forecast for a severe thunderstorm warning.

GFS! LOL!!!!!! YES! You are correct! BUT - we are always hopeful it somehow finds a nut! - We know it is on its own.. but it looks purdy!

Haha Had not heard this one! Whhhhy did the musician catch a stray dang it!

Clearly a trend towards a more tucked solution on the past few GFS runs. Though its always good to keep expectations in check since it is happy hour and it is the GFS.

That really does give one pause in dismissing this... That 'bump' ridge there in Ontario, is actually REX block - it's just less obvious for being weak. The key is actually the Maritime low, because between said REX block and that low, that is a huuuge mangus ton of wave mechanics that has to go some where, when it winds up underneath those two. It's going break on the Del Marva in that progression/extrapolation. If you look at the Euro's 12z run for that same interval above, you can see what it's doing differently ... It's placing the emphasis on the 2nd S/W feature up there in Manitoba. That little piece of shit above, is a massive S/W in the Euro ...but it's not good. It's in a different phase wrt the total continental wave spacing. The lead needs to be the one, which is what the GFS/CMC ... well most other guidance was doing at 12z ... It's why I'm still 50/50. I only admit that the Euro is physically possible - I need to see this whole mess at 84 hours frankly.

I'll be damned

It was trending better at first then went to crap

Pivotal only does total that close up. Go forward in time to the gap between precip events, then subtract what qpf we already got from the total after the weekend event

If I managed to get a half a foot I would be delighted, and satisfied with winter. That would put me right about climo avg. I wouldn't kick more out of bed tho lol.

Totally fine with missing out tbh. Ill take a nice moderate event.

But not 35 inches like the GFS is showing.

We should probably be in storm mode so we can suck the fun out of this thread.

18z Canadian GEM at max range of 84hrs on the run.

Love you Jackass

Ah you're right, sorry. I've been so PUMPED looking at our imaginary storm I forgot it may rain this week. Will got the right map. Reposting for clarity. Still absurd numbers