All Activity

multiple comma head mcs wed-thurs or bust

After the coming trof does its thing this weekend and next week over the GL/OV it will lift out and we go full bore into summer pattern once to about 6/20. Still remains to be seen how much rain we get between now and then. Pattern could potentially produce but uncertain how far east toward our area it will get. Going to get steamy though with some higher dews than we have seen so far this warm season.

Total gut feeling (no science involved) but it feels like the stretch of days where a few people get absolutely smoked by a wind damage core or two and the rest of us maybe hear distant thunder or see mostly sunny skies.

This Thurs may be the best chance for something decent (nothing like the main risk areas tho) IMBY as everything in 2026 except 2 storms in Mar has been pathetic, and all but 1 between midnight and 3am.

JB thinks this winter will be like 97-98 so that's it it's canceled this year.

Despite a good-looking setup for eastern Iowa Wednesday into Wednesday night, all of the morning CAMs show almost all the storms forming northeast, east and south of this area.

Charts

Violently agree. Perfect summer weather!

NAM looks volatile for S WI and N IL Thursday evening.

I’m officially done with rain. Sign me up for a drier period

Wonder what is going on at KRDG since 2021?? Further north higher elevation than Phoenixville but now warmer than the Chesco warm spot.

With the way you’re wording this, it seems to me like there’s double counting of sorts between the warming from GW, itself, and El Niño.

Sucks the strongest shear lags behind the front Friday. but with large CAPE/a bit of an EML we could still pull off some big storms, its just they would be more pulse type and may not be organized

Probability of quintile range 0.0 <= x < 20% for 2 metre temperature probability

Speaking of the NAM grid.... woof. Thickness 572 to 575, first time this season basically sets in now, out thru 60 hours. 850's look like 15C. Lot of a cloud production tho so that probably limits it's already tendency for 2-meter temp retardation a bit. 30C at 980mb in NYC on Thursday tho would probably be 96 in EWR

We're definitely overdue a strong la nina. The last time we had 2 robust el ninos back-to-back was the series that began with the 82-83 super el nino (when we had 3 in a decade). After the 2nd el nino (86-88) followed a strong la nina (88-89). I have a feeling that we're going to have a strong la nina after this strong/super el nino event. 82-83: super el nino => 23-24: strong el nino 83-86: -ENSO event => 24-26: -ENSO event 86-88: strong el nino => 26-27 (or 26-28): robust el nino 88-89: strong la nina => 27-28 (or 28-29): strong la nina???

The Kiowa Vortex Generator strikes again.

We got 0.03" rain.

What in the sam hell am I trying to interpret here

Another top 5 day out there today

I am not against, nor a fan of Judah Cohen's contributions ... I realize there's been some banter in here that's ranged from flattery to ... not so flattering opinions of the guy - I'm not part of that one way or the other. Having defined that ... I don't have a problem at all with his surmise/intimation there that it bears some semblance to last winter. I said almost exactly that to Brian in a post yesterday or the day before. Whether it ends up "comfortable" like he suggests is different combinations of metric than just temp though. He needs to be careful there ... or at least, the readers/consumers need to be aware. If it ends up normal temperatures ... that doesn't automatically intimate lower DPs to me. Not at this time of year - nor particularly to what the general synoptic trends look like out there. Particularly, if the transient trough in the Lakes starts to retrograde like the 00z ens clusters all agreed it would do... that means it is challenged to really make it COC -like. It would be more vaginal I guess... heh ( puerile humor ). It's a new-ish signal but the neg anomalies associated move back toward the S/W continent just beyond next week. For a real air cleansing... the trough needs to go the other way ... opening up and progressing E.

Pleezy weezy with sugar on top let's see that happen. ha

Comfortable is good.