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If you don't care, why post? There are people who care. It'll fascinating watching the Titans at MetLife Stadium during a huge wind and rain storm on Sunday afternoon.

0Z UKMET goes NNE to eastern end of LI and then into SE New England while weakening substantially Mon-Tue

Does anyone actually care if this storm hits us or not? For me could care less moderate winds rain we don’t need and coastal flooding is always dangerous

Nam doesn't look to bad either. Put it in the books. Tracks much better concrnsus tonight

Throw in the cmc trying to play with the others but it's too shy and stays out by the cape.

Yep icon gfs and euro are all identical with exact placement only thing to figure out but they all stall, go west then loop then do something.

Icon nearly stalls out dropping pressure south of montauk point till ally 12 Sunday then starts crawling west ish

Crazy to think the nws is/ was going with a east storm even as the trend was clear as day since 6z today

Nice soaking rain at times today afterall. Finished with .31 here

I’d like this thing to go OTS, but considering the time frame, I’m expecting something of a “landfall” in RI, the high pressure to the north is going to be the determining factor and how it splits. Another smaller, yet important factor, is going to be how strong the Low deepens upon their “dance.”

Picking up on the stronger high pressure…? And we are getting closer in now, maybe it’s getting a clue? And yes…that 1041 high is very impressive, have we ever/how often have we seen that in September while a system will be climbing the coast?

These are non-trivial probabilities for TC formation of the E Coast, and yet nothing in the TWO? Let me put it this way, you can't highlight areas w/ 0/0 chance on the tropical wx outlook (they do do this) and ignore something like this. And beyond the the model probs, from a empirical fcst skill/experience, such a formation is quite possible. So objective end subjective combined, that's how to do it!

The uncertainty is what’s has my “brain-a-tickin’

Those TC probs are *non-trivial*. Certainly enough to say something in the TWO, so you see what I mean. This is not a far-fetched situation from a model probability standpoint, and lots of decision go/no go as from model probs. As I like to say, you can't have it both ways here! Highlight systems w/ 0/0 percent chance and then ignore something like this? And beyond the the model probs, from a empirical fcst skill/experience, such a formation is quite possible. So objective end subjective combined, that's how to do it!

Valid 00Z Monday Sep. 28, 8 PM Sunday EDT, the GFS has the center down near the waters south of Long Island / east of New Jersey, while filling rapidly to 999 mb. Compare the evolution: F72: 993 mb, offshore F84: 993 mb, moving west F90: 995 mb, farther west F96: 999 mb, farther west again So this is no longer ambiguous model-map noise. The 00Z GFS explicitly depicts a cyclone that stalls offshore and then tracks back toward the coast while weakening. And the precipitation character changes substantially by F96. The intense compact wraparound band from earlier has weakened considerably, but the circulation is still producing a huge area of rain from NJ/NY through New England. So by Sunday evening the modeled problem has transitioned from a compact, intense coastal cyclone toward a broad, weakening circulation still capable of producing prolonged rainfall. What strikes me most is how much farther the GFS has come compared with the runs we were watching yesterday. The disagreement used to be something like: GFS: northeast and gone. European guidance: trapped, then west. Now the 00Z GFS itself is showing trapped, then west. The exact center, rainfall amounts and timing can absolutely still change. But the synoptic mechanism of a trapped cyclone retrograding toward the Northeast has now survived another GFS cycle, and we're getting into the 3–4 day range.

Out to 72... the storm is stalled. Just completely stalled off of Long Island. About 150 miles SE. Lots of rain and wind for our areas.

FWIW, the GFS is slightly stronger and further west.

Thanks. But how do you explain a 1000/500 mb thickness max of >576 dm and 700 mb height max both at the center if it is cold core? That almost has to be warm core.

Holy crap did the GFS absolutely CAVE to the EURO! This is more west than 18z!

Prob of TS graphic from ECMWF...great! Did not know about that from WxModels. The ECMWF site itself has it as well.

0z EURO out to 24... At F24, I do not see an obvious early Bermuda run. The low is still close enough to the Mid-Atlantic coastal zone that the later interaction with the block is very much alive. God if we got this in 3 months from now this forum would be going nuts.

1041 is very impressive.

The “path of least resistance.”