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Tonight on the Joe and Joe show on youtube, the Joes will be joined by DT, Alan Kaspar, Bill Goodman. I hope it is ok to post this here. www.youtube.com/watch?v=dL7K-oOsNuY

Daaaaaaaaang

Really like this map unless we see more tics. Think southern zones could do a hair better depending on rates.

Not what the CMC and GFS had but it still has it....just way south

Over a third of the American population is now under a winter storm warning

Yup. ECM-AI was maybe a hair better.

48h before the start of the event.

Don’t see this too often:

Not so much for ice (sleet/ZR) versus snow though.... Although I remember going on a senior class trip to Tamiment in the Poconos back in '79 in January and there was ZR that weekend with the slopes too slick to ski on and then the temps hit 40, so it was either ice skating in their indoor rink or board games.

It was always a B/C to me Though technically for us it's an over running warm front style thump as the coastal does nothing here and hits New England

Ah...don't know why I though tthat was "much" later

The cleaner transfer to the coast is earlier

NWS has 7-11 Sunday and 2-4 Sunday night at Farmingdale

Me too

My point and click just jumped to 5-9 on sunday fwiw.

Bigger as in a larger geographic spread? Doesn't really make a difference since Jan 22 hit Boston hard. Given the cold, it will be a good stress test for the T.

If I ever move from the house my wife and I built, just know it will be somewhere north and west of I-81.............. Not sure why i need to tell you guys this, but felt it needed to be verbalized. lol

when green line go past blue line bad

I assume that freezing rain could cement all the sleet into one solid mass.

this i think 8-10 a great forecast for a wide swath south of 78, if you want to account for under or over performance a general 6-12 from north central jersey through middlesex ocean monmouth down to philly

If you toggle 0Z and 12Z it's definitely a small improvement at 12Z for us southerners. Central is a solid hold, maybe a hair drier but really just noise. This 12Z run falls in with other guidance either holding that sleet line off or giving us an extra 30 miles or so of breathing room.

Rambler I cannot post this image gif. If you’d be kind to do so. Definitely can see how things are unfolding with it. .

Look to mesos to pick out the banding.

Updated map. Will this pan out? No clue, but that's why I'm not a met. Some minor tweaks from the last one, and unless we see major trends within the next 24 hours, I don't think I'll make any adjustments. I guess you could call it a near worse-case scenario but I'm sticking to a lower/conservative side. I think the mixing line makes it up to CT, then following just north/west of the Fall Line. ENE winds will bring a period of rain to coastal NJ, keeping totals lower. Freezing rain up to 0.25" possible for inland NJ, south of Raritan Bay. However, if the mixing line quickly retreats, or doesn't even make it that far north/east, totals here will be higher, possibly add 50% to what's projected on the map (not in pink). Areas north/west of Easton, PA - Mahwah, NJ should remain all snow, 12-18" likely, possibly higher amounts in higher elevations.