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Delete this thread before 18z and open a fresh thread for the event.

Nope. Major temp bust. 0 was my forecast low. Radiational cooling will undercut many temp forecasts if skies clear.

Models still showing the storm signal for valentines day weekend, a lot of them showing rain atm but pretty consistent on showing a storm at least

It’s pretty obvious we punt the next few weeks. Now we just have to hope things reset for late February or early March. If not- this winter was decent; for a Nina.

nothing "significant" about this little threat.

I just saw that, will keep an eye out. This last storm that just past was fun and frustrating to track, but I would do it all over again. Finally, got some good rest afterwards lol.

Man that's just one panel it doesn't look to stay that way--hush, lol Now as far as getting something that weekend I don't know...

What an epic storm. One literally some of our kids will be posting about in here in 20 years. I’ll put my wake county grievances aside (though everyone in the county is justified in theirs) but EVERY county in the state verified warning criteria.

There have been only three record lows set during the 2000s at TRI during February. 2026 now holds two of those three records(both sub zero temps). 2015 holds the other. A little bit of history made at TRI to start February.

Well, so much for winter.

Honestly I think flurries along I-95 would probably be a boom at this point. But we probably won’t see anything.

The arctic is warming faster than the mid latitudes/equator so in theory that weakens the thermal gradient in the NHEM and hence a weaker thermal wind. That’s what tends to happen in the warm season. The higher latitudes make a larger temperature recovery from winter and winds weaken and wavelengths shorten.

Looks like TRI actually made it to -7F according to WCYB social media. David Boyd notes that the Feb 1 record was also broken last night as temps hit 1F right before midnight. Two records in one night....

Sounds like he’ll be working on his fantasy baseball draft the next 7 days.

all I said smarty was had we not had that warm period It would be much colder for the average. Check yourself please

I have been doing some jet stream reading this morning. There is a cadre of researchers from reputable institutions arguing that cc actually slows the polar jet. I have no clue who is right...or who is in the minority/majority....but some worthwhile reading nonetheless.

VDay 2016 hit -9 as well. Time an anomaly like that 3 weeks earlier and you’re probably pushing -12ish. But the setup is similar to the A tier ones we’ve recently had…arctic cold centered more in the lower levels and delivered more from the N than the WNW. We just need them a little more potent when delivered. The urban centers have heat island effects too so that’s another hurdle to overcomes.

Getting stein in February sucks...fairly often you get pretty good precip in February when it's cold too because the seasonal recovery is already rapidly underway down south so you get these juiced baroclinic zones....not early on this month.

The CPC has had the 2/1 - 2/13 period as drier than normal for awhile now

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I’m here to bring the mojo…again.

12z GEFS bumped up totals. This thing aint to far off from being a light to moderate event.