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October is showing overlapping influences compared to past El Nino climatology. The typical -EPO blocking ridge is displaced further south than usual into the Western US. This is a continuing theme from last spring with enhanced mid-latitude ridges. It’s developing a little more south of 2015 which would be the closest match.

The "what if" and "could be" scenarios along w/ endless speculation, conjecture, and opinion are all that matters. It is the business paradigm, and a deplorable one at that. ENSO does not work necessarily in a linear fashion for all regions of the globe, so the notion that this is strongest one on record = worse by default is flawed. Also, you can't compare ones long ago (1877-78) to what would happen today in terms of societal impact. 50M fatalities then and equating to now? Back then, the world was very different. You did not have scale of global economic trade and communication, let alone forecasts that allow us to prepare. And we did just fine in all other very strong El Ninos since 1950, so why is this one going to be *any* different overall? I say "overall" b/c that is key. Yes, the Atlantic TC season is more suppressed than ever, and the EPAC is record levels, but focusing on such details is narrow-minded. What is happening in the big picture, and taking into account to what has happened before in very strong El Ninos, is actually happening as expected for TCs in the Atlantic and EPAC. And we already see signs for the STJ getting active in the LR and already a wet pattern across the Gulf Coast States, and perhaps our first Gulf wave/Miller A storm. There is far to much focus on what is different and the negative, and the same and positive are ignored, ever notice that? You'd think El Nino leads to pure atmospheric chaos, when it clearly does not. It is well understood and has plenty of order, as evidenced what was said in the previous paragraph. And yet you get fear-mongering articles like this: https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/23/climate/super-el-nino-heat-deaths Notice it is "could cause", again, conditional supposition. But here what they do not tell you. Such warmer global conditions mitigate significant cold-related issues/fatalities globally, and cold causes more fatalities than warm in the mean. The article says that there could be an excess of 3500 fatalities in the U.S. alone, but no mention of lives saved due things like the lack of hurricanes and a mild winter. Clear cherry-picking/omission of facts here. Want harder info and proof? See here about the impacts of the 1997-98 event. https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/80/9/1520-0477_1999_080_1819_ioenog_2_0_co_2.xml So they found for costs: • $1.7 billion, and uninsured losses were estimated as $ 1.1 billion based on the fact that insured storm losses normally represent 65% of all structural losses from storms • federal government relief = $400 million; • state assistance costs = $125 million; • agricultural losses = $650 to $700 million; • lost sales in snow-removal equipment = $60- $80 million • losses in the tourist industry = $ 180 to $200 million. For benefits: • reduced heating costs = $6.7 billion; • increased sales of merchandise, homes, and other goods = $5.6 billion; • reductions in costs of street/highway removal of ice and snow = $350-$400 million; • reductions in normal losses due to absence of snowmelt floods and no Atlantic hurricanes = $6.9 billion; • income from increased construction and related employment = $450-$500 million • reduced operating costs to airlines and trucking industry = $160-$ 175million. Totals: LOSSES Human lives lost = 189 Economic losses and costs = $4.2-$4.5 billion BENEFITS Human lives saved = 850 Economic gains = $19.6-$ 19.9 billion So how is this bad net-net? Very strong El Nino has a considerable net benefit. and from an individual intuitive/empirical observation POV, it is not hard to see how such benefits come about in society. The savings in heating costs *alone* exceed all other losses.

really you prefer minus -50-60 below zero degrees in the winter then more power to you..

Wow you're garage is so neat and orderly. I would be terrified to show anyone my housemates garage lol

Mr Glp1 just recently put out a wildly hyped up video about major changes to the wild and crazy historic once in a lifetime super el nino winter on steroids en route The takeaway The mid south might have a significant winter weather event if the cold air and moisture are timed right. Someone might buy a powerball ticket at the local convenience store too. Furthermore, I think it's a little insulting to folks in the south. It's not as though they're unfamiliar with the possibility of a period or two wintry weather every few years. Yes, it's very disruptive but these folks deal with deadly heatwaves, tornadoes and just thunderstorms in general that would make many New England folk run for cover and floods. Is there any end to the hype ever?

Nasty - thankfully nothing like that on the horizon.

And 39 years ago today, the best early season PT snow event ev-A! Needless to say, it was not fcst! Accum map attached but it's off a bit. 7" fell at DXR and 1" at HVN. Max amount of 26" at Slide Mtn NY and 22" at Grafton NY. 18" at Pownal VT. A trace of snow fell as far E as Ashburnham MA in the @ineedsnow area and as far S as NYC. Not just an elevation storm as even ALB got 6". I have read that the snow was so wet, it was 3:1 ratio, but I do not think that is possible. Let the snow weenie here chime in on this -- "what was the lowest snow ratio event you have had?" It is the first time the term "warm snowstorm" was used, as many areas never fell below 32 for the entire event. Did an 8 year old @CoastalWxrecall waking up this Sunday morning and wondered, "how could this happen?!" Does he even remember it at all?

And in case @CoastalWx thinks "this is too early for a Gulf wave," enter Oct 3-4, 1992. He's be surprised... Sig tor outbreak in the TPA area, 5 foot storm surge in the FL PH, and over 10" of RPLUS in Brunswick GA.

The Miller As begin! And it eventually comes to the NEUS.

Now the 00z GFS does what the GFS likes to do w/ TCs in the long range, overly aggressive. What the other global models show do not look very tropical. The system is highly asymmetrical and looks more like a monsoonal depression or STS. With a front fcst across the central Gulf, that appears reasonable. It reminds me of ET lows that you get in the cool season in the Gulf when strong El Nino is present, and the subtropical jet does become more defined in the next week. You can get strong ET lows in Oct in this area. Here's one from Oct 3, 1992. Take note @GaWx of the big rains in Brunswick GA! A strong low pressure system moving northeast out of the Gulf spawned several tornadoes in the Tampa, Florida area. One person was killed and 23 homes were destroyed as an F2 twister moved through Largo. 3 people were killed and 75 were injured in Pinellas Park as an F3 tornado ripped through. Total damage was estimated at 32 million dollars. Heavy rain spread over northern Florida and Georgia on this day and continued into the 4th. Jacksonville, Florida recorded 8.69 inches of rain and Brunswick, Georgia was deluged with 10.14 inches in 24 hours. Strong winds and a long fetch pushed tides 4 to 5 feet above normal along the west coast of Florida.

Wished we lived there

For Albuquerque, the 2026 September had the most "wet" (>0.1") days on record (8). The average is three. El Ninos at >=5 wet days for Sept since 1931 are 1940, 1941, 1982, 1997, 2006. These are good winters - very wet, each with 12-28 inches of snow in the city. The Jun-Sept period finished with 12 days over 0.1" - generally >=11 favors a good winter for snow in the city. Since ABQ just had its wettest month since Nov 1905, literally 120+ years ago, second wettest month since 1892, its probably worth looking at the 1905-06 El Nino too for precipitation nationally - but haven't had a chance yet. June-Sept at ~5.96" is also rare for an El Nino. Only a handful of El Nino Summers are >5.0": 1940, 1941, 1963, 1968, 1972, 1986, 1991, 1997, 2006, 2014, 2015, 2018. 1940-1941 0.0 9.2 0.5 0.9 0.5 2.0 T 0.0 13.1 1941-1942 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.1 3.0 7.1 T 0.0 14.6 1963-1964 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 8.2 1.3 T 0.0 10.0 1968-1969 0.0 0.0 7.4 0.9 1.8 5.5 0 0.0 14.7 1972-1973 0.0 2.9 1.2 9.5 1.8 13.9 8.1 0.0 37.4 1986-1987 3.2 0.6 0.2 4.9 4.9 0.2 2.2 0.0 16.2 1991-1992 2.5 1.5 2.1 5.6 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 12.7 1997-1998 0.9 1.1 8.8 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.0 12.4 2006-2007 0.0 0.2 20.8 2.2 4.7 0.0 0.9 0.0 27.9 2014-2015 0.0 0.0 1.2 4.2 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.2 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 7.2 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.8 2018-2019 0.0 0.0 3.3 2.0 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.5 Means: Fall: Oct -0.6" Nov - 1.3" DJF: Dec - 4.5" Jan - 2.9" Feb - 3.2" MAM: Mar -2.7" Apr - 0.9" May - 0.0" Total: 16.1" (100 year mean is ~9.6", 30 year mean is ~7.1") The crazy bit with these El Ninos is the 12 seasons average ~9.0 inches of snow in the top month and no individual month in ABQ averages even three. So "wet monsoon" + El Nino is typically a good indication of at least one big snow month for the SW.

For the first time in awhile, I don't want a hurricane in any context anywhere in the Atlantic

Yeah, 1961 was the last real hyperactive (175+ ACE season) until 1995. With very few exceptions, the 1962-1994 period was relatively quiet in the Atlantic. Of course, the Blizzard of 1993 was preceded by the devastating Hurricane Andrew in 1992 (although the rest of that season was very quiet).

September finished quite similarly to a blend of the past four El Nino Septembers (2015, 2018, 2019, 2023) nationally. The West is not as warm in those years as 2026 is forecast for October - that will be a good test to see if that grouping fails going forward. PNA was primarily negative (as you'd expect looking at the maps) in Sept 2026. -PNA in Sept is weakly negatively correlated in the NW for Oct - I.e. it 'should' be warm, east should be cold. For the West, the Cansips roughly matches the correlation map.