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Hey, I forget what part of wilson you are in. I lived near Gillette park

Ive heard that a +qbo with higher solar promotes HLB. Not every time, but most times. Im hopeful we will see one decent winter storm.

Looks similar to the CANSIPS IMHO.

Not to have a NS form Sep 1-10 is rather rather (peak climo time for the Atlantic). Yes, technically on Z time Edouard formed in Sep (01/00z), but that doesn't say much as to how atypically quiet it is. Not to even have an invest or something outlooked in 7 days in the Atlantic speaks volumes right now! There is value in such a quiet season scientifically. We are in uncharted waters, at least in the data rich/satellite era, for El Nino, so what are we seeing that we have not seen before? Record high MDR wind shear for one, but what else will come out of this season? For instance, was the AEJ impacted? Walker Circulation? Hadley Cell? All these impact TC formation and maintenance. It seem like Saharan dust outbreaks are not a huge factor this year, unlike last. Why? Is it b/c of the strong westerly wind shear in the MDR? Can you have a season when both are strong and work in tandem to make conditions even more hostile and get something like 1914 (only one TS the entire season?) or 1907 (5 storms but no hurricanes)? Yes, limited data from these time periods make comparisons to the modern age tough, but to know the absolute limits/extremes (at both ends) is a high value. 2005 and 2020 showed one end of the spectrum. Also, 1933 b/c it still has the most ACE for a season on record.

Clemson at LSU originally had a 6:30PM CDT scheduled kickoff. But due to a lightning delay/heavy thunderstorms, they’re not kicking off til 8:40PM CDT! This supposedly would be the latest start in LSU history! I read that Lane Kiffin does not have either of the former pros on its roster for tonight. He’s worried due to a lawsuit by the SEC against LSU. The concern is that LSU would possibly have to forfeit any games with them on the roster. There’s also the worry about eventually being thrown out of the SEC although that’s very highly unlikely.

TH earliest measurable snow was recorded on 9/26/1942 2.0". Ish! Way too early. No worries this year, or most years for that matter. Just a reminder of the season we moving into I guess. Oct is a different story. Gets wild some years here in the N country.

I'm with you on that -PDO strong Nino Combo logically flooding the Country with mild PAC Air. Stranger things have happened I suppose. Could be a banner Winter in the Ski Resort Area's of the Rockies. Alot of heavy , wet Snow. Strong Blocking could throw the mid possibly southern Apps a shot at a heavy duty wet Snow Storm or two come mid January onward imo.

I’m waiting for @aldie 22 to tell me what this winter will bring.

Clouds most of the day. Some brief peeks of the sun. 60's again along the shore with a Lake breeze. Hit 70 inland, briefly.

No bueno...this is what Kev was getting at....if you're wondering why the EURO is warm despite a big -NAO, this is why.

I think most guidance is too cold, but I expect a better season than 2023, if that makes sense....

The reason that the EURO is warm despite a big -NAO is that the North Pacific Oscillation is pretty deeply negative so there is a real fire house of PAC jet.

There's nothing suggesting it'll be that warm. I say that with the understanding that the Niño is at record levels, but the same models that have been showing a record Niño don't have it that warm. But actually you and I are on the same page wrt how the winter should play out despite any differences of opinion on modeling. Of course, that could change if modeling goes into the crapper as we approach met winter. Lol

Love these temps. Heck of a way to run a torch..

There were a couple Mets and enthusiasts in the New England forum that strongly hinted at this possibility months ago. Hats off to those gentlemen so far.

High of 91. Down to 74 currently. Feels a lot better.

While I think that the NAO will average positive in the DJFM mean, I do not expect wall-to-wall +NAO, and there are some signs of some pretty significant blocking in the second half....even EURO has that, though it's probably overdone. Sept:

@mitchnickIf you look at the Pacific right now, then look at the CANSIPS.....the El Nino is very east-based, whereas the CANSIPS has been trending further east with each run, but is still central-based. It's also much too cool with the waters east of Japan. These inconsistencies coupled with the trend of guidance to underestimate the magnitude of ridges over the past decade plus should leave you very skeptical of the CANSIPS trending NORTHWARD with the lower heights, thus constricting the Canadian edge even further to the north.

Today's Highs: PHL: 84 New Brnswck: 83 EWR: 82 BLM: 81 JFK: 81 no intra hour highs TTN: 81 ACY: 81 ISP: 80 TEB: 80 LGA: 80 NYC: 79

No, it isn't because the EURO is more accurate in the Pacific THIS YEAR. If you want to say all seasonal guidance should be taken with a grain of salt, I agree....but CANSIPS requires a larger grain.

Actually, I was just playing the part of a weenie with JI. But, since you mentioned it, analyzing this year's Euro seasonal in light of a failed Euro seasonal forecast from 23/24 is sorta beyond absurd too.