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low of 40.3F here this morning - 45F now at midnight. Seeing some upper 30s nearby.

The non-tropical low now forming gas gone orange: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Oct 18 2026 1. Off the East Coast of the United States: A storm-force non-tropical low pressure area is developing along a frontal boundary tonight off the southeast coast of the United States. This low is likely to move slowly and erratically over the next couple of days while it initially remains non-tropical. Later this week, if the system stays over the Gulf Stream, environmental conditions could become more conducive for the low to develop some subtropical characteristics. A subtropical cyclone could form over the second half of this week as the system begins moving generally northeastward, offshore of the eastern United States. Regardless of development, this system will cause high winds, coastal flooding, and dangerous surf along portions of the U.S. East Coast. Please consult statements and warnings from local National Weather Service offices and the Weather Prediction Center for more information, along with High Seas Forecasts and Storm Warnings issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Meh. 4-2 against teams that are 9-16 without playing them, and 2 unlikely wins and beating Ten barely. And the Browns probably aren't as good as 4-2. Hopefully they get it together going forward.. The offense with Lamar and Flowers has looked explosive at times.

36/35, cars getting frosty here too

Frosty cars when taking the dog out for her final walk. It seems like we will be getting a steady diet of radiational nights even if thicknesses are high. Large diurnal trends this time of year.

Temp down to 39 degrees.

Only got 10 or so weeks but perhaps we can still break the US tornados by state record

I wonder what @bluewavefeels about the fact that we haven't seen the big GOA low yet, and what that could mean if we don't...

You got your freeze @John..lol.We was 4 degrees BN yesterday,would rather see some rain right now,looks like thats not going to work out very well the next 7-days

It’s like trying to trend into a warm week Wait next week

Beautiful pink asters. A great native fall perennial that should be used in place of non native mums. 34 at KFOK already. Forecast low of 35, likely makes it to the upper 20s in the pine barrens. .

The only thing I like as much or more than cold and snow is getting the forecast right, so there is nothing worse than when I go cold/snowy and winter sucks...last thing I want.

Yea, the most likely outcome is it's just an exception to the October=winter N Pac pattern rule and it's just delayed.

Yeah I think the whole year is when you have the strongest event on record, and there are basically no negative H5 anomalies in the mean April to the present. Will be interesting to see if the pattern sets up for the 1st time as the N. Hemisphere Winter comes, it did happen for the S. Hemisphere Winter.

For sure, it’s been shockingly cold in the Arctic this summer. So cold air is available to source. And anyone that claims to know exactly what is going to happen during an unprecedented event is just wishcasting. A very warm start, possibly record warm and of course wet is starting to lock in. After that the amount of uncertainty is off the charts. That’s why I think something like 83 or 16 is really on the table just as much as 73 or 98. .

Heh...I just ran that narrative through AI and needed to go cyber-stroke after reading the response. All I can say is we had better get that pig GOA low soon.

Yea, October is usually telling for that....if we manage a cool ENSOish North Pacific, or hybrid type deal without MC tropical forcing...look out.

Go NFC North! And Go Brewers starting Friday

Nov-Mar +AAM 30-50N is a common pattern.

Yeah I mean I'm 39F at 10pm. It's felt cool from the 2nd half of Summer on. I think there will be -AO tendency this Winter. And the N. pacific is looking nothing like El Nino right now... still.. told ya lol ENSEMBLE LOOP Will be interesting to see the N. pacific pattern this Winter. Monster low pressure likely won't dominate

I know. I get what you're saying. I just don't think this winter will act as hostile to cold/snow as worst case, at least not imby. And I also think the atmosphere is moving slower getting pieces in position thanks to the years of MC forcing and -PDO. That's why I'm more convinced with the formation of the Aleutian low than you. But as I said, time will tell and December will be here before you know it. Once Halloween hits, the holidays just fly by.