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I'm an electrician

I had 9” in the early-January storm and I’m a smidge west of the fall line!

Wpc overnight does have a low almost on cape cod for the 15th

yeah, noticing on sat/vis loop ...there's some environmental tussle going on where the S/SW flow is running over the top of this shallow radiative cooled dense BL air. instantiating a very low very shallow overrunning lift. Probably not a well modeled circumstantial feed-back. The strata that is the result is like super thin but with a low early Jan sun angle, that's enough to blot out and shade. if we can keep the mid and upper level clouds at bay, eventually we'll warm enough that this will mix out but some places may get a couple hours of ceiling first.

I don’t think it’s really a “new” thing, but rather a timing difference. If you look at 00z, there’s a piece of energy that dives in a couple frames before this. Whether I’m right or not, if we can get that piece to dive in and phase then we’re in bidness.

it is a true blessing to have two kids, but it is NOT a blessing for your kids to contaminate your mind with useless stuff.

I won’t go there

What kind of service do you do?

Not a bad trend for that diving piece. Though I could not get 18z since it does not go far enough. In the interest of transparency, I think the organization of the whole thing was worse there. But 00z and 06z definitely nice trends away from that.

Baby steps.

I thought the ICON was loading up too at the end of 6z, but what do I know.

And keep ticking that all west. “Classic” east coast storms have the H5 trough go neutrally tilted near the MS river and negative around the time it hits the Apps. We’ve definitely moved in the right direction in that regard, but the reason OTS solutions still occur (aside from phasing challenges) is the trough is too positively tilted.

Being in my 50s, I am blessed to have 2 teenagers that keep me young and 'in the loop'. Last legit storm we got Dec 13-14 here they asked me how much I was looking at. I said 6, maybe 7 and they did some juggling motion and started repeating six, sevennnn. So, um, yeah I 'blessed'

Clouds and raw as f**k in Simsbury, 29 degrees. Great morning for an outdoor service call

Sun and blue sky here in PVD

Yeah probably not us and more north east but that new diving feature still has a ways to go in terms of resolution, if it sticks around. Definitely could up the ante if it interacts positively.

I did have the two towns transposed in my head. 29 in E.W. and 31 in Simsbury.. well, West Simsbury really

Lies. It's not "constant" as the 5-year old image in the post claims, both the frequency and intensity have been increasing, and the rate of change is accelerating. I imagine if you aren't being personally affected, it's easier to internally justify "nothing to see here" hot take this pretty clearly indicates you have a political agenda, and because of that, your postings on this topic can be summarily dismissed

Latest CFS AAM forecast: pretty close to prior one suggesting rise to modestly + in early Feb:

Someone would get hit pretty decent if it the Euro ran a little longer.

I like the trend of a stronger, sharper ridge out west. This gets said all the time but it’s real here: there is a ton of energy flying around late next week. We need to continue the trend of a sharper trough, more dig for a phase for storm 1. Storm 2 is tough to talk about bc it seems so reliant on what happens with storm 1. I’ll take the players on the board right now. EURO and GFS both have big dog potential if everything falls right and honestly we haven’t seen that in years. Late bloomer seems most likely path to victory with storm 1 but if that trough goes negative tilt just a little earlier and that low gets tucked this storm could really go to town. Keep building heights out west and dig the trough a little deeper and I think you’ll keep seeing some fantasy runs pop up

Looking over that 6z run of euro that northern piece of energy diving in and phasing would be amazing if times up right. Hope trend continues on 12z and it dives in to meet the southern piece of energy and phases and turns the corner.

When someone offers you 10,000 to 1 odds on ANYTHING, you take it.

GFS' recent runs hinting at that ... My only point before is that there's wave interference that is negative. That trough totality, albeit containing some potent embedded S/W at beta scales, is in fact positively tilted. The QUE vortex up there is in bad spot climo and physics-wise. These aren't really disputable. But he brought up a good point about looping and seeing the history, and the wind barbs are turning more S along and off-shore, so that's indicative of slowing - or having the ability to do so - the progressive nature overall. The WI dive probably catches, and then the phase ends up potency has enough - your "hook and latter" low fits that. But ... shit this can all change of course. it's fun to jockey the model runs LOL

Good point. To be sure I’m thinking most commonly 43-45 readings, for the region. a solid +10 today Dews will also be rising all day so it will compound the real feel. Legit warmth on this merit as well… Gotta get outside…