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I'm a bit torn on how the disconnect between the PDO and ENSO may go.....I see some it could forcer a colder outcome in the east, but that definitely didn't work out in 2023. I see how it could weaken the GOA, thus reducing the proclivity for +EPO/strong Pac jet, but I also see that adding an element of destructive interference via elevated se heights....I tend to place greater emphasis on the latter, but perhaps we are especially prone to severe bouts of winter when said SE heights relative to expectation relax.

We had that one min in the upper 30s here…maybe 35-38 in the area depending on elevation. We’ve had a lot of Septembers with more 30s than that. Whatever it is, everything is lining up for a great season.

The CPC has 1972-3 peaking at +2.0 in its most up to date RONI table linked just below. Since RONI is the official way of classifying (and has been since Feb), that’s the current CPC official peak for 1972-3 rather than +1.8: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/ More on the transition of CPC from ONI to RONI for official classification of ENSO (this was released in Feb 2026): https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/announcement.php From the link above: “The Climate Prediction Center is making the shift to use the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) to better designate past events and predict future ENSO.” ——————— The table at the link below, which is to the most up to date ONI, has 1972-3 peaking at +1.8. But ONI hasn’t been the official way for CPC to classify since Feb. At the top it says this: This page will continue to be updated by the 5th of each month, but per NWS Public Information Statement 26-05, the Relative Oceanic Niño index (RONI) is used for official monitoring and prediction of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/oni/v6/ @Maestrobjwa

The October "mother of all WWB" has been on the Cfs2 for close to 2 months. Hard to believe with that model, but true nonetheless.

Jokes aside, I do suspect there's something in the -PDO mode of the atmosphere over the N arc of the Pac Basin that may parlay. Not certain on that... no It's just an 'intuitive arithmetic' of having the -PDO ... correlating -EPO, then vying over top a canonical ENSO driven STJ. The N. Pac is that "hangover" concept we were discussing back whenever that was? I don't keep apprised of the indexes weekly however. I just glance at the scalars. I see the models tussling already. I think that behavior matters - they are physically processing and so whatever their logistical biases are can mean one of two aspects: a, they are picking up on something in the atmospheric forcing spectrum; b, they are just wrong. The latter concern is ameliorated some by fact that all the models are doing this ( more what that is in a moment). They don't all have the identical physical equations built into their processing - though principally the same. So that means whatever is triggering persisting biases either way, it's likely something real in the background. Obviously this is all very experimental -

Not sure the track record here but we could see another big jump soon.

I was actually going to add a mid atl reference, too. haha The majority down there are great posters, but there are a select few that just make you want to make use of the idle snowblower and lie yourself down on the drive way.

On the + side, it likely means it's a stronger push of colder air. I'll take that as a "not so negative" considering temp will likely be our biggest problem come December.

Right...and that wasn't directed at you.....I know you are well aware of the perils of dismissing potential over shorter-term intervals out of deference to a longer-term mean.

Well yeah there's that too. Joe sets coffee down in the throws of some weird bi-polar pulse of gaiety firing off that morning, and the first thing he eats are "doomer" words of absolute dog turd ... That's gonna result in the bell of round one. haha No but I was just musing along very general take on matters.

All I ask is that people keep an open-mind....the need for preemptive defensive posturing is every bit as prominent on this board as any bias born of lust for the D-drip.

October 2 1953: A record high of 90 for the St. Cloud area is recorded in 1953 (and later tied in 1992). Minneapolis also sets a record that same day in 1953 with a high of 89 degrees. 1849: Persistent rain at Ft. Snelling accumulates to 4 inches in one and a half days. For Friday, October 2, 2026 1882 - An early season windstorm over Oregon and northern California blew down thousands of trees and caused great crop damage in the Sacramento Valley. (David Ludlum) 1959 - A tornado struck the town of Ivy, VA (located near Charlottesville). Eleven persons were killed, including ten from one family. (The Weather Channel) 1980 - The temperature at Blue Canyon, CA, soared to 88 degrees, an October record for that location. (The Weather Channel) 1981 - Severe thunderstorms raked Phoenix, AZ, with heavy rain, high winds, and hail up to an inch and a half in diameter, for the second day in a row. Thunderstorms on the 1st deluged Phoenix with .68 inch of rain in five minutes, equalling their all-time record. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - A fast moving cold front produced snow flurries from Minnesota to the Appalachian Mountains, and gale force winds behind the front ushered cold air into the Great Lakes Region. Valentine NE reported a record low of 25 degrees. Temperatures recovered rapidly in the Northern High Plains Region, reaching the lower 80s by afternoon. Jackson, WY, warmed from a morning low of 21 degrees to an afternoon high of 76 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Early morning thunderstorms in Georgia produced three inches of rain at Canton and Woodstock. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Flooding due to thunderstorm rains in the southeastern U.S. on the last day of September and the first day of October caused the Etowah River to rise seven feet above flood stage at Canton GA. Thunderstorms produced up to ten inches of rain in northeastern Georgia, with six inches reported at Athens GA in 24 hours. One man was killed, and another man was injured, when sucked by floodwaters into drainage lines. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Observances: 2 Fri National Name Your Car Day 2 Fri National Body Language Day 2 Fri International Day of Non-Violence 2 Fri National Custodian Day 2 Fri Shemini Atzeret 2 Fri World Smile Day 2 Fri National Fried Scallops Day 2 Fri National Produce Misting Day 2 Fri National Report Long Term Acute Care Hospital Fraud Day 2 Fri World Farm Animals Day 2 Fri Guardian Angel Day

I noticed they go bananas after those couple cool, frosty mornings like a week ago? Forget when that was but it was like 3-4 days of sun, high diurnal swings and frosty valleys. Immediately after that the leaves went nuts up here.

Have to watch for some storms late afternoon

I don't think that is the issue...usually the blame arrow points towards the party speaking in absolutes, which is the "no winter" crowd...if you see anyone supremely confident in a great winter, please point them out to me. On the other hand, I see plenty hell-bent on a non-season, which is silly even just considering the intensity of ENSO overlaid onto CC....that position inherently demonstrates a lack of understanding as to the complexity of the implications of CC. As an example....CC has tended to attenuate the influence of ENSO, which we are still seeing to an extent, and has increased intra-season variability. Additionally, the poles are warming faster, which leaves us prone to shorter-term bouts of extreme blocking patters, which always bares watching given the magnitude of the STJ that is anticipated. Obviously hand we are dealt is heavily weighted toward warmth IN THE MEAN, but in no way precludes all hell breaking lose over shorter intervals of time for the reasons discussed.

Back in the day whatever the euro has within 72 hours was generally a lock

Meh,... there's a pathway to getting a surprisingly winter result ( positive snow, assuming that's the consensus). However, that's relative to a shitty background. All the shenanigans that go on here is about 99% guided by individual differences in what reality really is. LOL I suspect those that are "gloom and doom" posting, or are being perceived to be so ( sometimes I think others are also bit too touchy about their d-drip possibly being NARCAN'ed haha ), they are really just being practical. If the limitation on prospects are legit - I don't know. Tough shit. Get over it. It's a separate issue with maturity - mother nature takes the winter candy out of their hand and puts it back on the shelf as we're going through the autumn checkout line. So the kid gets snitty. Meanwhile, there are those that don't seem to really give the limitations equal billing, either. We'll just call them optimists.... To them, it's not so much attempting to be evasive... ? I don't think so. I suspect to them it's a built in assumption. However, that does get a little weighty/bias eventually, given time and crowd physics. There'll be this aroma that smells like false hope that drives posters like Forky to distraction. HAHAHA. One should really preface their missives with something like, "excluding the innate limitations ( or gains ...ether way) that we all know are apparent... like the warmest ever ENSO mapped over the warmest the Earth has been since the late Hadean epoch" (expressive). That way, it's your fault for not fucking reading the conditional statement. Humor aside, CC and warm ENSO doesn't send chills down any rational spine. What those of us that are optimistic are doing is just finding kernels snowcane-reasons lined up on the mirrors. I suspect there's something about the lingering -PDO in conflict with the +ENSO that might be one such pathway.

This like another map I saw this morning shows that I’d get within just the next few days at least as much as I got in all of pretty dry Sept., which was ~2.55”. So, I hope it verifies pretty closely for MBY. In reality due to the showery nature of some of this producing isolated heavy amounts, I realize there will likely be significant variations in totals within pretty short distances though.

Electrical/electronic/control systems is all me. That's the stuff I teach. Are you an electrical engineer?

fixed

i overseeded on labor day. haven't mowed since. it's a jungle out there, mowing tomorrow after I clean up dead sticks that came down over the last 4 weeks.

Hey I'm consulting for a SMR job right now. It's onshore though...and I'm only in charge of the electrical/controls part, nothing nuclear-specific.

I promise myself not to follow models this winter until 24 hours out. I promise myself not to follow models this winter until 24 hours out. I promise myself not to follow models this winter until 24 hours out. [tries to recover from laughing] I promise myself not to follow models this winter until 24 hours out...