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Guidance hinting that late next week could be first legit cold front

In Sept 1882 as indicated the massive rainfalls 22nd-23rd were in advance of landfalling TS4, and the 2.57" on the 11th was due to passage of Hurricane Two (by then only a TS) across the Delmarva Peninsula after a landfall near Mobile (Navarre FL) on the night of 10th-11th. Between those, TS3 of 1892 was a weaker event that moved into TX around the 16th.

Front going through? Clouds trying to clear and a little breeze out of the NE.

Thanks September 1882 New York City Weather Day High (°F) Low (°F) Precip. (inches) Snow (inches) September 1 81 69 0.07 0.0 September 2 85 70 0.00 0.0 September 3 80 72 0.00 0.0 September 4 82 72 0.64 0.0 September 5 79 68 0.00 0.0 September 6 76 65 0.00 0.0 September 7 79 63 0.00 0.0 September 8 82 66 0.00 0.0 September 9 73 63 0.16 0.0 September 10 68 62 0.00 0.0 September 11 67 59 2.57 0.0 September 12 70 57 0.66 0.0 September 13 69 53 0.00 0.0 September 14 77 64 0.09 0.0 September 15 73 63 0.00 0.0 September 16 76 58 0.00 0.0 September 17 74 60 0.00 0.0 September 18 80 65 0.00 0.0 September 19 87 69 0.00 0.0 September 20 84 72 0.29 0.0 September 21 72 62 1.21 0.0 September 22 72 62 2.34 0.0 September 23 66 55 8.28 0.0 September 24 69 55 0.02 0.0 September 25 62 55 0.04 0.0 September 26 63 56 0.05 0.0 September 27 62 51 0.00 0.0 September 28 55 48 0.16 0.0 September 29 60 48 0.27 0.0 September 30 68 50 0.00 0.0

Before August was a different story.

My standard reminder to NYC participants in forecast contest, tick tock ... deadline is tonight (more or less).

The 88 _ 90 _ 94 of Oct 4 to 6 1941 was the latest not quite a heatwave by official definitions, and mid-October 1954 had three in a row over 84 F. The wet September is a typo, it was actually 1882. And what caused it was mainly a slow-moving tropical storm (TS 4 of 1892) moving up the east coast 22nd to 24th. About three quarters of the month's massive total occurred in that time frame. The TS crossed Long Island with a landfall at Mastic Beach.

The September 2025 temperature at DCA was a tad below normal at 72.3 degrees, vs 72.4 during 1991-2020. Similarly, precipitation there was 3.72 inches vs 3.93 during 1991-2020. The January-September 2025 temperature averaged 63.0 degrees at DCA, compared with 64.7 last year and the record warm 65.1 during January-August 2012.

I thought I had included the 1895 but typed too fast. The 1914 heatwave tied the 1895 one for the latest on record at Central Park.

It’ll help keep the Zimas cool too!

2001-02 really stands out for this Don

I thought it would be the one in 1895 when NYC had 3 straight days of 95+, was that 20-22 Don?

1892: Central Park in New York City, NY concluded its wettest month ever with 16.85 inches of rain. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) what caused so much rain Tony?

The latest heatwave on record for Central Park is September 21-23, 1895 and 1914. Newark's is September 23-25, 2017.

This is for the entire month? Wow, around here it's 1.5-2.5, in the Poconos it's the same thing. That JFK high total is VERY suspicious.

3.5 _ 4.0 _ 4.3 _ 5.2 _ 3.5 _ 3.5 _ 2.0 _ 2.0 _ 1.2

The Grinch is insatiable, it'll probably be one of those straight south north runners where Dryslot West is snow and us east is rain through the maritimes We somehow didn't lose all our snow on Christmas of 2020, but did most of it. We got a small storm a few days later which was enough to go and scout out logging damage on the North end of our trail system by snowmobile, though it was boney.

nice to get the full sun this afternoon

This is weird even without any extreme heat it's the warmest week-- because of the elevated mins? I'd expect at least one or more heatwaves have occurred in the history of NYC in the last week of September.

“You’re going to regret not installing before we break camp in the morning, Arthur. You know Gertrude won’t put up with being hot as we cross the Black Hills and little Margaret will be crying in those dew points. My wagon is installed Morch to Torchvember. Alright giddy up.”

Yes I'm still using my a/c through October. This is very different from the 80s when I usually turned the heat on in the first week of October I have to admit this weather feels much better.

Survived the dysentery, but succumbed to 75/65.

Mine is 40/18 in North Carolina. All elevation and location on the windward slopes.

September is ending on an unseasonably warm note. Many parts of the region saw high temperatures in the 80s. Preliminary highs included: Bridgeport: 81° Islip: 82° (tied record set in 1986) New York City-Central Park: 81° New York City-JFK Airport: 81° New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 80° Newark: 83° White Plains: 80° The last time all seven locations saw 80° or above highs on September 30th was in 1986. The start of October will coincide with arrival of the coolest air mass so far this season, but temperatures will likely quickly moderate, rising to above normal levels within a few days. High temperatures will reach only the middle 60s tomorrow and Thursday. New York City will see the low temperature bottom out in the lower 50s on Thursday morning. Outside the City, widespread 40s are likely with a few of the colder locations dipping into the 30s. A rapid warmup will commence on Friday and a warm weekend lies ahead. The guidance and historical experience following a second half September mean temperature of 70° or above suggest that October will be warmer than normal in the New York City area. The two most recent Octobers with a cooler than normal first half like 2025 and a second half with a mean temperature of 70° or above were: 2017 (October mean temperature: 64.1° and October 2019: October mean temperature 59.9°). The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around September 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.42°C. La Niña conditions will likely develop during mid- or late-autumn. The SOI was +3.63 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.436 today.

It's an airport, I don't live at it thankfully. Only 78.3 in Muttontown & 77.4 in Syosset today.