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By then heat is manageable....like mid March arctic bouts. Sun is modifying air masses at this point.

Quotes from StormCast forums

No, but better.

I agree. I also am keene on the idea of a mid winter SSW, for whatever that is worth...I know those are a mixed bag.

12 EPS have b2b majors hitting land, with gabby hitting bermuda and humerto hitting louisiana/texas but focusing on gabby this is what we have innit

some of the ensembles have been getting quite low in terms of pressure for "humberto" concerning, how did Milton Keynes form again?

Upon further analysis - apparently it wasnt as extreme as I thought. The nighttime lows really did the lifting from late June thru July, but not the entire summer. June High/Low: +2.3F / +2.1F July High/Low: +1.2F / +2.6F August High/Low: -0.9F / -1.4F December High/Low: +1.8F / +2.2F January High/Low: -2.4F / -3.0F February High/Low: -2.4F / -1.4F

Very interesting...here its BY FAR most noticeable in summer. Winter mins still tank on clear nights. The only thing that holds them up is an overcast Great Lakes night, often accompanied by snow showers, while west of Lake MI will be clear and cold. Theres no comparison between summer and winter mins.

@BarryStantonGBPsignal for Gulf activity midmonth is there. We’ll see is all I can say now.

thoughts on these new signals lad Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16) #821 by LAF92 » Tue Sep 02, 2025 1:55 pm The 12z EPS is the most active I’ve seen all year for the gulf Stratton23 Category 5 Posts: 2684 Joined: Fri Jul 21, 2023 10:59 pm Location: Katy, Tx Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16) #822 by Stratton23 » Tue Sep 02, 2025 1:57 pm LarryWx yep lets see if the signal sticks on future runs, but even that far out it definitely is worth paying some attention too 3 likes Top lsuhurricane Category 1 Posts: 266 Joined: Tue Aug 15, 2017 2:53 pm Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16) #823 by lsuhurricane » Tue Sep 02, 2025 2:02 pm Easily the most action I've seen from any model suite for the Gulf this season. 2 likes Top IcyTundra Category 5 Posts: 1222 Joined: Mon Jun 07, 2021 9:32 pm Location: Dickinson, Texas Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16) #824 by IcyTundra » Tue Sep 02, 2025 2:27 pm More bullish than the GEFS but it is notable that both of the major ensemble suites are showing an elevated chance of development in the WCAR/GOM in that 10-14 day range. The Gulf and WCAR have seen zero activity this season so it would make sense for something to finally develop there at some point this season. 1 likes Top jlauderdal S2K Supporter Posts: 7211 Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am Location: NE Fort Lauderdale Contact: Re: RE: Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16) #825 by jlauderdal » Tue Sep 02, 2025 2:34 pm The 12z EPS is the most active I’ve seen all year for the gulf Plenty of Gulf energy that needs to be transferred. Seems like a matter of time. Sent from my Pixel 9 using Tapatalk 1 likes https://bit.ly/ambientweather https://bit.ly/wxunderground

Dry begets dry. I think 3 of the last 4 summers/fall here have been dry.

First, I know they try, but since there are so many stations that haven't existed since 1901, they are obviously filling in blanks. Where they received that info and how it's calculated makes or breaks it's accuracy. The fact is, Capital City airport in the northern tip of York County was +2.2 and +2.5 for June/July going back to 1939 and York Airport since the start of recording back to 1998, at the southern end of York County, was +2.1 and 2.9. They have York County at +4.1. That map has the the entire County in +3-5. So we're relying on exactly what to piece temps? As for the recent heat, it means nothing to me. I'm not scared.

The lack of rain is very annoying

I'm planning on it in 2-3 weeks. maybe the pattern will de-stein a bit by then.

Torch!!

Seeing some yellows and reds around my office in Cecil County, MD. .

The people who subscribe are getting what they want and want to hear, so they probably don't really care about what others say. Similar to the people who want to hear that the world is going to end in 10 years and glue themselves to priceless paintings.

Where's the early Fall? #Moregarbage.

Again, I’m not posting this because I’m trying to push it. Rather, I just want others to be aware of what WxBell, which has a large # of subs and thus a lot of visibility, is pushing via JB and to try to generate discussion: Looks Like Dr Viterito and I are Getting under someones skin This is an example of the kind of propaganda that was once reserved for other matters, but since a group of people now considers climate to be that kind of matter, they will do the same thing. The strategy, of course, is to say something that does have truth, but then do not fill in the entire picture. Naturally, the graphic attacks volcanoes and solar, both known for natural variability in the climate. But consider this. The cumulative buildup of heat in the ocean from increased solar and ( humor me here) some of the ideas on geothermal explain pretty nicely the buildup over the years of ocean heat. The sudden increase that Tonga and the el nino represented certainly added to it. You can't explain the jump from man-made causes, nor the significant drop that has started, so natural causes certainly explain much of the buildup But here is how the propaganda works. The pusher of the missive does not show the drop in 2025. ( Another favorite idea is to scream about Greenland falling into the sea when there happens to be a season where there is more than normal melt, but ignoring all the other years that have been occurring that have more than average snow and ice) Nor does the pusher fail to mention the drop off in MOSZA, and the drop in temperature seems to have some link. Nor can the pusher explain the record warmth in the north Pacific, the cooling in the NW Atlantic that is leading to the greatest difference at 40 north between the Pacific warmth and the NW Atlantic cooling on record. Gee, I wonder what could be causing the warmth where it is in the Pacific basin. must be a coincidence Or is there a magic CO2 fairy that bestows warmth where it so desires? BTW, the drop off in input in the Atlantic, though still warm, means it's quite a bit cooler Last year at this time current that is a pretty impressive drop off One may say, Joe, all you talk about is the opposite ideas of man-made warming. Well, that's because you have to be deaf or blind not to know their idea. It's all we are bombarded with, so I assume the reader knows the other side, because you can't help but know it. It's all you hear. Look at this "study" as an example of how this works. It's put out with loud fanfare and has none of the competing ideas that call it into question, even though the headline itself takes potshots at the very counters to it. And for good reason. Putting in competing ideas would lead to rational doubt. And that is not what propaganda is supposed to do. The only solution is to at least put other ideas out there, and give YOU the freedom to make the choice. In the end, the equation I put out 20 years ago when I started to get involved in this, still applies: The Sun, the oceans, stochastic events, and the very design of the system far overwhelm anything man can do to the climate and weather This has to really get people mad who think they can control the weather and climate and the fate of humanity.

NNE still winning the heat battle

49 this morning, 79 now.

76/54 September CoC

The 12Z EPS has a notable signal for a TC formation (~25%) in the S Gulf with them moving mainly N to WNW and then hitting or threatening to hit from NE MX through TX/LA. But this could be mainly gone on the 0Z for all we know since this run looks much different vs earlier runs and its way out in the unreliable late week 2.

80 my high today

NOAA's official website has June-July as 3rd warmest, only behind 1949 and 1934 https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/county/mapping/36/tavg/202507/2/anomaly Important to note that it also shows that the 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, and 10th warmest June-Julys for Pennsylvania have all happened since 2005.