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The last of my snow on my property vanished late yesterday. It was a nice run

HRRR has a snow squall push through tomorrow morning lol

Lot of wine I think.

pretty close... It was more like a, "besides ... befitting the La Nina" not hurting the idea. It's possible that it was entirely La Nina driven, and it was just a 3 or 4 month window where the distractions let it alone. interesting. You know (change the subject) I did this cursory research into warm springs long ago. I found that some statistical significance between late stage La Nina's and big spring warmth. I didn't look at it regionally, just at a N/A continental scale. 1976 April heat was truly awesome particularly in NE. MA/S NH and S ME... It was 96 with upper 80s and low 90s for three days before and prior to a big heat day - one entire week's worth. Dr Colby and I dorked it out for an hour and went through the rest of the spring's data recordings from the Lab's station. We were xpecting to happen upon a tongue-n-cheeker snow event in early May that year but nope. It stayed in the glorious 70s to 80s right through. So in 1998 we were coming off a super +ENSO and we had the 89/90/91 heat burst, Mar 29/30/31... So it's not a lock out correlation or anything either. But, that was a single pattern event - the former effort was more seasonal in time scale. I did find some correlation there. Out of deference to no believing the index methods are completely obsolete ( probably 2070s lol) last fall, I went ahead and thought shit... after the early loading, lets go 2012 on their asses. So I rib-poked a "flowery February" deviant attempting to trigger winter enthusiasts... I was never confident though.

Mega bust there. Couple cold days but not blocking to lock it in. Canada was/is remains quite cold but it was locked up all month. Only noteworthy event was the big midwest blizzard that gave Green Bay its 2nd highest snowfall of all time. Otherwise most of the country was a giant torch.

I thought I recall you posting something to the effect of a "typical front-loaded La Nina winter"? Perhaps I'm mistaken. Yea, I mixed up February and March, but other than that...one of my better efforts in the aggregate.

Exactly Alot of forecast busts happened this past winter.

He was just stating what the models showed in early to mid March. They did show a colder and potential snowy pattern. The NAO never went negative.

heh. Just in an op ed mood this morning Yeah, so I wouldn't tell anyone not to try. That's would be, in a word, stupid. One has to try... for one, if the process brings them joy, you only live once. Rock on. Plus, NOT trying at all? That would greatly reduce one's success rate in discovery, huh. LOL. The deeper take away there is that the foundations upon which long range prognostics were always based upon are clearly cracked. Perhaps crumbling... There has to be more in the way of original insight. As I mentioned, a fall back approach has been working rather well ... ish. Trying to asses the continuation vs collapse of 6-month persistence. You know, I almost nailed this winter. I fucked up the February thing but... my feelings were not hurt by that. I was much more confident in early cold/blocking, and I didn't use anything other than noticing aspect of late summer and autumn and pushing those forward. None of which was ENSO this or snow in the arctic that, or solar cycles ...or blah blah-blah. Is it reproducible? not saying that either. As far as the ego stuff... I've just had to throw hands. Years and years ago, when I started seeing ENSO's statistically decoupling around the world, I was ignored. But then some independent whatever comes up with RONI; yet no credit is conferred. So you know ... it's like a fuggit thing. Don't care anymore. We can know, and no one knows we know and that's just the way it goes. You are either chosen, or be loudly unspoken. Whatever god runs this show can go fuck itself. LOL

What rain?

I agree. To me personally, the 24-25 winter was more fun in both tracking and playing outside with my daughter.

Yup. We are definitely seeing more variation with fringe-events, though, which is why passing the baton from ONI to RONI was so crucial.

Good luck to your plants.

Too many people have figured out that life's events happen too frequently for people to remember erroneous bad predictions or bombastic lies...

The Earth's circulation isn't deviating that much. Things like the NAO still show Atlantic circulation mode, and although -NAO hasn't hit as hard with cold, +NAO has hit just as hard, harder with warmth. In the end, it evens out but you still have positive and negative modes to the index. Here's the last 333 consecutive months.. although ENSO is "warm", you can see by the Hadley Cell circulation that there is still a well defined "Nina-mode". Relative indexes work the same as the Earth still has 99.99% of it's general circulation in continuum.

When in doubt, go warm, though...not disputing that. But I'm like that 4th grade math teacher trying to instill the processes of solving long division problem into the class..."make sure you show the work", even if the short-answer could be easily discerned.

Perfect example, RONI and EMI denoted a La Nina that was better established than the traditional ONI would imply, so of some forecasters went warm in the east just based off of that...oops.

Yea seacoast NH.

Dont worry I only post in here when our areas are tracking a snow event or I am on vacation in Wildwood.

I know, I'm not looking forward to the 1,000 posts about how "everything's warming in this new climate"

Yea, I'm taking about the actual pattern, though....not simply "warm or cold". Obviously warmer is the safe bet....

Last freeze 3/29?

There's probably a 85% that any given place will be above average year-to-year, for DJFM (91-20 averages). I would have said 80% until this heat ridge hit the Mountain West and SW this cold season.

Eh.....having issued 12 winter seasonal efforts now, I think they still have plenty of utility as long as you make an effort to incorporate climate change into the work. For instance, it's important to understand that what other forces are now competing with ENSO, and the ramifications said forces have on the hemispheric pattern. If you simply interpret a lower RONI as a weaker El Nino and blindly forecast colder because of that....yea, good luck.

There were some pretty bad posts during this past winter. Sometimes you just have to be patient and see what happens.