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Sneak Preview of the new EURO seasonal: 2023-2024

EPS with a >5940dm ridge south of the Aleutian islands at Hr 360 It's completely backed of the <-250dm at D10.. now models have like -150dm max and the pattern only lasts 3-4 days

Ive been stating for years that sports moving to streaming is laying the ground work for an eventual move to PPV....

Ok. We haven’t torched as much as other places, but we’ll still post an above normal month easily.

Wednesday too 3 days 80 to 85. Two or three days Wednesday through Friday. No December 1992 stalled just to the east of Delaware for two days. Winds gusted to hurricane force with very heavy rain and temperatures fell into the upper 30s here. Heavy snow from Sparta NJ west and north. Over one foot of snow there and up to three feet in PA. On the third day the storm stalled again this time just south of Cape Cod and we all switched to snow and it snowed all day with temperatures just below freezing about an inch or two of snow. We had gusty winds for 5 days here in total. This storm made landfall on the NJ coast no way it would be snow in the winter. You need a track near Cape cod not to change over to rain in the coastal areas. Chris is this for average temperature over the entire year? Does the Lake Harmony temperature and coop record only go back to 2020?

0.42" Sat, 0.89" Sun, 1.52" Mon and 0.15" today since midnight. 2.98" should do it for the total. Forecasts were between 2.5" - 3.5" for this area if I recall correctly so they seem pretty spot on.

@Stormchaserchuck1What are your thoughts on this with respect to the potential influence of the lower PDO and record warm eastern flank of ENSO? residual cool ENSO influence in combination with the record OHC over the eastern half of the ENSO region is one key factor that may be cause for some deviation from that season with respect to both the predominate storm track, as well as the temperature pattern over the southern and eastern US.

I still think it will eventually spike to near neutral.

I've seen him....but sorry, that makes absolutely no sense to me. All that will do in an El Nino is act to raise se heights, which makes it warmer and adds an element of destructive interference to opportunities for east coast cyclogenesis.

Locally. I just had 3 consecutive nights in the 40s. No major heatwaves late Summer for the 3rd consecutive year.

This is the trap that I fell into going into the 2023-2024 season....all it means is competing forces, but there are no guarantees that the "forces" are good. I bombed that season, but haven't had a bad one since....learned a ton.

Not historic but major If Noreasters were rated on a 5 point scale this would be a major a Cat 3. Both Sandy and December 1992 would rate a 5 that's historic. Yes a 3 of 5. December 1992 and Sandy would be 5 out of 5. Possibly but again not historic Except for a few months last year there was never a real drought. I'm not going to use inflated averages to justify a drought. Summers are normally drier. And once this awful el nino ends we'll return to our hotter and drier summers next year. That last part is incorrect. December 1992 was far more historic than this storm on every metric. I'd put this third far behind both Sandy and December 1992. If you go farther back, to 1960, add Donna 1960 and Ash Wednesday 1962 to that list. There were sharks in people's driveways! December 1992 had a longer period of gusty winds than either here. FIVE DAYS in total! Correct a 3 out of 5. Yes but not historic.

I heard your wx station is one of those non-scientific ones. Sorry bud, we toss.

Funny you mention that because this is my early-front runner-plot for December: Note the location of the ridge relative to the position on the EURO seasonal:

snagged over an inch yesterday, storm total just under 2" how's that for scientific measurement?

Saw a few breaks in OVC.

+0.93" = 4.21" event total Looking at my five years of CoCoRAHS data, 3 of my top 10 rainfall obs are from this year - all around 2.50" for the 7am-7am period. All that despite being still well BN on the year.

80s and dews later this week.

US National Weather Service State College PA Soggy September Soaker! September 2026 (MTD) precipitation rankings (no rain expected for the last 2 days of Sept.) Williamsport: 11th wettest (6.84") Harrisburg: 26th wettest (4.72") Altoona: 9th wettest (5.58") Bradford: 10th wettest (4.85") Johnstown: 3rd wettest (7.31") *since 2000 State College: 6th wettest (7.90")

8 named storms looks good on paper until you look at how abysmal the ACE is

Huh? Where and by what metric? Nationwide the start of this month was near or at record warm. Our area is AN for September.

Low of 62. Beautiful pink sky view to the east from my train car window this morning.