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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
MJO812 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Its only October. Too early to say who will be wrong or right -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
He’s going to be wrong again. Just like he was back in 2015 -
Like who? lol. It’s going to lead to a warm November across the CONUS and then restrengthens in December.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
LakePaste25 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Guaranteed, take it to the bank that the vortex will not be even close to as west as 2009 in December in the monthly mean. The OLR coming out of the tropical pacific is already much further east-based. -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
MJO812 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Thank you for posting. I thought you like Judah Cohen. -
It's so ridiculous. People are always trying to find something to latch on to.
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5 yr anny of the big blow in SE areas. One of the top wind storms of my life. Phil just dragging his sack all over.
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There have been quite a bit of legit mets with this info. But we shall see (it wouldn't be something we see until mid November).
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Told ya'! Lol -
The PV stuff is click bait.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
snowman19 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
There are many more. Absolute clown show on there -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Sit tight! Lol -
Not necessarily. No one's saying winter is looking bleak. As a matter of fact, there are definite factors in play that can totally give us a different outcome historic El Nino in place. There are things happening now that have never been seen as far as polar vortex split in early November and some other signs as well. Either way, there's no definite cause for canceling winter. But I also know that you're very pessimistic. I don't mean that in a mean way, I just know what your defense mechanism so you don't set yourself up for disappointment.
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It’s October 27th. lol. Climo laughs at those looking for winter.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
MJO812 replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I haven't even seen one post on twitter about 2009-2010. No one is claiming that -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
You're comparing October to December. Don't you think that's probably not a fair comparison to draw any conclusions for this year since we're 5 weeks from the start of December and 9.5 from the end? -
BTW, here's the GOAT early season polar disruption. No way am I calling for another 2009-10, just posting for comparison. The Japanese marine heatwave is killing us of late.
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If this is true, then you know which direction I hope they're coming from...
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
mitchnick replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Great news. Warmer temps, less energy consumption, and less pollutants. Aren't you celebrating? -
Best part of this timing is we won’t have to listen to sun angle comments for any potential snowfall opportunities
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Not sure about record warmth yet but does look solidly above average. Which by next week is 65 to 70
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Could have our first fall winter severe storm system of the year with this upcoming second season .
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There are always questions about whether any SSW or wind reversal will couple appropriately with the polar vortex. This 3D modeling suggests that it will successfully disrupt things all the way to the surface, which is hopeful to at least mute a torch December. I'm not expecting a miracle in the snowfall department this winter, just climo snowfall.
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I don't even bother looking at anything until post-Thanksgiving. Some can't help but torture themselves with 10 day OP model runs in October, which boggles the mind.
