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It’s breezy here already in southern ct .

NJ leadership has other issues going on. This is a case where they might actually need one. so we'll see when or if it comes. I think more when than if.

It is already dividing the high pressure symmetrically.

This event is moving towards being very impactful over this subform. Been trying to keep my thoughts in check the last day or so not wanting to hype but this system has been throttling up the last 24-36 hours towards upper ranges of potential in all aspects. Coastal flooding and erosion, rainfall totals and wind potential have all ramped with each model cycle. Have been worried all along about major coastal flooding and that now seems likely at some locations. Winds have become a bigger factor as well especially over the more inland areas. Power outages could be widespread with wet ground and winds gusting to 50 mph+ along the coast and up to 40 mph more inland. Excessive rainfall totals now very possible over parts of the area. Some areas will not be able to take that much rain on top of what has fallen recently. Especially southern tier of CT and into NE NJ. Will be interesting to watch this unfold. Batten down the hatches if you are a coastal dweller.

That seems diametrical to the current operation guidance, CMC/GFS/EURO All three have 564 to 570+ hydrostatic heights, with W to SW/NW off shore components, Wed thru Sat. Now ...this may differ from ens mean/bulk signaling and telecon indexes therefrom, et al... not sure, haven't checked. But, the operational runs are warmer than just mild those 4 days as of these last 00z guidance

Last thing it is a bit sandyish like, as we got closer and closer to the event, the tide forecasts kept ramping up and up and up Just like this one

The ironic thing about the coastal flooding situation, from past other storms events, my area usually lucked out from winds dying down earlier, or direction shift.... they usually were a little to high in there forecasts because they thought the models we underdone.. with this storm it would seem they think they're over done? Idk... with the storm more tucked in, and slow moving, south of Long Island and modeled to be stronger the wind directions are all changed, from a more north/ northeast, to now it being northeast, to a more easterly direction with at times some south depending on timing all of which is going funnel the crap into long island sound, gardiners/ peconic bay etc..

12Z Nam is wild so far...thing is just sitting off the Carolina coast and deepening....

There’s locations on the Jersey shore that didn’t fully recover for years.

Yeah, for those following--this was never going to be purely tropical. We're talking about possibly a shallow warm core system. To be tropical it would need to shed the fronts it's attached to. But the title is what it is for a reason. We're talking hybrid here or maybe subtropical if things break right. Convection near the center, banding features, etc.. All that is still on the table once this really ramps up later today and tonight. As it stands however, we're all systems go. Good pressure falls are underway and our storm is organizing right where we want it. Big rainfall is still on the table along with significant winds especially along the coast. Euro is still most robust between it and the GFS on 925mb winds. Close call for mixing on the soundings.

Most of the island was out for one to two weeks. Some mitigation.

NWS is waiting on the 12z guidance. They still have time to enhance the warning package if things continue to escalate.

Models seem pretty locked in on this getting to LI or just south and heading due west into NJ a la Sandy. Obviously a much weaker version of that but could definitely result in major coastal flooding. Peak impacts are Sunday morning. A lot more rain than a Sandy solution given it'll be further north.

The ballet/dance has begun.

47.8 F for my low this morning!

Haven’t started my generator in four years. I ran stabilizer through it after last use. Fingers crossed

It’s looking pretty chilly in the E 1/2 of the U.S. next week (this is for Sep 28th-Oct 3rd):

I've bugged them enough this week. I'm on there real time slack group with other mets from media, emergency management etc... they didn't reply to my questioning why they issued coastal flood watch when there tide forecasts were mainly only minor... as the criteria is moderate to major. Asked if they saw the higher potential but didn't wanna issue yet? Crickets...

Hopefully. It seemed like 97-98 had more nor'easters than any other winter.

Consider yourself lucky. We had gusts to 100mph with Sandy and no power for 10 days. I was deployed to Seaside afterwards and the houses near the beach were pushed into each other like toys. Complete foundation failures. The main road in was blocked by a house that ended up there. And there were broken natural gas lines everywhere. It was truly a surreal experience. I’ll never forget being out the night of the storm when a 70 foot tree missed our truck by a few feet. That storm and riding out the mid Atlantic derecho in an RV in South Jersey were the scariest nights in my life.

...September was suppose to be a month of endless summer according to some people lol

I need some in-depth science. Would the cooler air OR water vapor enhancement add to intensity more? There is Beauty in the Beast.