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This likely is not for NYC

go ahead and start the "Octorcher" thread so we can keep the laughs going

Depends.. some spots by ponds and swampy areas have a ton of color.. other areas are spotty.. but pretty close to last year here I think

It's weak sauce by Albernaz. Calling out a fringe player when your season is over doesn't mean much. Call out Gunner for selfish at bats would be a better sign he's growing a pair.

Ensembles are really furnacing that Sept 29-first week of Octorcher . For those that have trouble following why we call it Octorcher.. that means above normal .. not 90’s

18z gefs is meh

He's awful He needs to go. No reason to believe anything changes by keeping him around

Let's see how we're looking by Friday. If it's a bust then we might be having a problem. You're starting to see a few of the mets in the main ENSO threads ponder if this El Nino isn't fully coupling with the atmosphere.

Besides some light drizzle rain not much. Likely getting under .50” for this amazing event

62/52, just finished mowing the lawn I didn't get to on Sunday I'm probably wrong, but the changing leaves here seem quite a bit ahead of what is suggested by the thread title

Almost 1" at the Potomac mesonet site, but none of the spil moisture probes saw an increase. We are dry.

It’ll slowly capitulate to the Euro and ultimately slingshot a tempest near or over LI into NJ just like Euro, EPS and Euro Aifs . Like every coastal since the history of models

Leaves are quite a bit behind where we were last year at the same time. Last year was a solid 10-14 days ahead of schedule with the cool dry fall. This year is nowhere near that

Been in the OBX since last Thursday and no rain there and I missed the storms here as we got nothing here in Durham. Ugh. Now today I had a storm pop up just to my west and it went right around me. I am beginning to get a complex here.

Will be like 5F diurnal range all week here with these NE winds

0.22” yesterday morning 0.78” today off to a good start for the week

What a garbage model right now. With shifts like this 00z will put the center over Springfield. 64.5 here at WXW1 50.4 up at WXW2 with more frost possible tonight. First freeze possible tomorrow night.

I went apple picking last weekend. Beautiful weather.

I agree. It was good to see the sunshine.

Tomorrow and Wednesday will be variably cloudy days. A few locations could see a shower, but dry weather should be predominant. Highs should reach the lower and middle 60s. Some rain and showers are possible Thursday and Friday. The extent of the precipitation will depend on the track of a developing storm. For now, the system looks to pass far enough from the region to produce lighter to perhaps moderate amounts of precipitation. Uncertainty exists. Temperatures will remain unseasonably cool throughout the week with highs mainly in the lower and middle 60s. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +4.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +3.0°C for the week centered around September 16. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +4.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +2.73°C. Both ENSO regions have tied their all-time warmest anomalies. The ongoing strong El Niño, will continue to strengthen through the mid-fall. The SOI was -23.00 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.435 today. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 65% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 68.5° (0.7° below normal). Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.5° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

Just got smoked by a cell, 25 mph gusts and already .9 inch rain. Temp bombed to 70F from 90F in 20min

Yeah only 70° on Sunday…would like a few more degrees for picking honeycrisp.

Get used to that

1.28" this afternoon. Shocked we did so well. 3.17" for the month; the first time I've exceeded 3" since May (there you go Raven).