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maybe the pac jet will relax this winter

Fingers crossed for the stuff on the eastern shore holding together and crossing the bay.

That could only happen with a parade of anomalous SWFE's. If you are snowing, Dave and Ineedtorelax are most likely snowing.

https://www.wcvb.com/article/west-nile-virus-middlesex-county-3rd-human-case/65994951

Bright sunshine across the Piedmont. Wasn't expecting that!

Looking at the local NWS stations, they have info on this regarding wind and flood, but I imagine this will unfortunately catch a lot of people by surprise from a communication standpoint. Weather Story for Southeast VA, Northeast NC & Southern MD

I haven't heard much about EEE or West Nile so far in the news. I wonder if the dry conditions will help with that

Record low streamflow. Memorable.

It's still a 2.5 hour drive from her campus... if she can get the Outdoor Club or whatever interested so they can carpool or take a van I think she should go for it. Her car is pretty old to make that trip a lot.

I’m not sure as it’s somewhat subjective. But the NHC never even had it at even a 10% chance to transition to tropical in any TWO, which is what really made JB mad initially.

It seems odd to not name it, especially given its proximity to land. This meets the Tropical designation criteria right?

I sure hope so, it's getting very dry here again...

67 / 62 those partly cloudy forecasts were very questionable looking at the satellite vis loop yesterday. Some showers and light rain into the bottom half of NJ as the cut off ULL spins off the Mid Atlantic coast. Pushes north tomorrow with light drizzle. / rain and showers and a cool onshore flow keeping most places in the low 60s. Slowly clear out Thu and warms up on a NW flow. Fri warmest day of the next 5-7 mid 80s in the warmest spots. Dry cooler weekends- 70s then overall warmer beyond there. 9/16 - 9/17 : Clouds ULL , light rain - cooler 9/18 - 9/19: Warmer - warmest Fri ahead of front 9/20 - 9/21 : Dry / cooler weekend a bit below normal 9/22 - Beyond : Overall warmer

Satellite photos show an ULL dropping down, that probably will interfere with development. blob:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/53dc1fce-b712-4618-afb4-c94259665cca

@snowman19This is related to what I was talking about. It’s not just the NE Pacific that’s so warm. It’s the entire N Pac., which isn’t necessarily even partially correlated to a cold winter in the E US like BAMwx and others are forecasting.

Of interest to me... the steadiest of all the modeling the past 5 days or so... the ECAI and its ECAIEPS. Rain is coming and underplayed I80 northward. I think NYC counts on 0.1-0.4" and up here in far nw NJ/ne PA/along the nYS border 0.05-0.30. WPC should have statistical comparisons of the ensembles and am surprised its so dry in its overnight forecast. Could be my interp is incorrect but while this wont be a great relief from the recent dryness, it will help, provided my interp is correct. Wont surprise me to see at least an inch in spots across theNJ/LI portion of our subforum. GEFS lagging and so we'll know tomorrow night and I guess that's what WPC tends to support.

8AM TWO: getting very close now… Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure area located about midway between the Windward Islands and the coast of west Africa have become better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form in the next day or two as the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Looks to be a severe -WPO/EPO.....somewhat +PNA and a modestly -NAO/AO. PNA and especially AO are iffy...

Not that this is right per se, because it probably isn't....but I'm not sure folks appreciate just how cold this is given the 1984-2009 climo base. If I were planning to copy and paste a composite of the past ten winters as some often muse, this would give me pause.

Followup: Bastardi is livid that this hasn’t been named:

Bastardi is livid that this hasn’t been named:

It's coming.

CFS for December: