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  2. ChescoWx
    With now 2 weeks of forecasts in the books the ChescoWx model has performed a bit better than the official NWS forecast every day for my backyard here in East Nantmeal Township.
  3. ChescoWx
    With now 2 weeks of forecasts in the books the ChescoWx model has performed a bit better than the official NWS forecast every day for my backyard here in East Nantmeal Township.
  4. Chinook
    I am wondering how the El Nino may already be shifting 250mb winds, even as we've just started, in summer. Obviously, we'll expect lots of subtropical jet in winter. As for now, I used the HISTDATA from NOAA to plot this... it's essentially the same as NCEP/NCAR reanalysis but it lacks some capabilities. Anyway, the 250mb zonal winds have been more westerly than average for some of the E Pacific, into southern Mexico, then out to the Atlantic. You can see the evidence of a ridge over the central USA. Now, we know El Nino tends to have these situations where the wind shear is quite high for the Atlantic hurricane season and squash that. But here's the question: if the 250mb winds were so westerly, why has the E Pacific generated some strong storms? Of course, on here, there's the Hawaii area ,which has had a hurricane this summer (and now a couple more storms by Hawaii), with the more-easterly-than-average winds as shown.
  5. GaWx
    After being pretty flat in August/first few days of Sept, the relative 3.4 OISST anomaly has risen sharply the last two days: Sept 4th relative 3.4: +2.254 Sept 6th relative 3.4 anomaly: +2.429, a rise of 0.175 in just two days…that’s the most rapid two day rise on this entire chart as it is the most rapid two day rise since June 3rd-5th, which is not on this chart:
  6. straphanger
    Dipped below 60 for the first time at my location since mid-June. Very cool feel this morning but it's rebounding quickly through the low 80s right now. Great windows open weather to let some of this dry air flow in.
  7. Prismshine Productions
    -5 for me is still 50+" so would take in a heartbeat Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk
  8. GaWx
    The daily WCS PDO has risen back substantially the last 7 days ending yesterday with it up to -0.9, the highest since way back on July 2nd, vs ~-1.65 one week earlier:
  9. GaWx
    Here’s the version of CRW anomalies for Nino 3.4 that best takes into account GW in determining anomalies: it’s +2.5C and rising:
  10. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  11. ChescoWx
    Hello all. The ChescoWx website https://chescowx.com has had a major overhaul and it is now live! Everything is interactive now. You can pull up climate trends unique to the Philly burbs of Chester County PA for any measure, look at a single station or the whole county, and compare us against Philadelphia, Reading, or Allentown airports. There are all time records, decade summaries and climate trending options going back to the 1870's, top snowstorms, snow by season and even a White Christmas history. Every trend also tells you whether that trend is statistically significant or simply weather noise. Behind the enhanced website sits 42 Chester County area stations and more than 458,000 daily observations going back to 1871. Take a look and let me know what you think and what we are missing you would like to see or be able to view interactively. Thanks! Paul
  12. George001
    A rouge blizzard is certainly possible, but things don’t look good for northern areas. I agree that 27-28 will offer better chances for sustained winter weather. I would much rather roll the dice with a La Niña than a super Nino. Although weak La Niña is preferred, even in some stronger La Niña years my area has gotten hit hard at times. I dont think there has been even one super El Niño year with AN snowfall locally, and all of them are AN to well AN temps. Even the “better” super Nino analogs like 15-16, 82-83 etc were warm with below average snowfall (82-83 was closer to average, but still a bit below and was warm, so still a bad winter by my standards).
  13. LakePaste25
    Almost to +3C on CRW. CRW mostly measures surface temps, so at some point I would expect it to mix down which would increase OISST but decrease CRW.
  14. dendrite
    Mins this morn
  15. Prismshine Productions
    Essentially us in New England are closing the shades until Winter 27-28 Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk
  16. Today
  17. JTA66
    Getting to that time of year now where I focus on the overnight lows. It can be warm during the day, as long as it cools off enough for good sleeping weather. 74F/DP 56F
  18. LakePaste25
    LFG! Been waiting for this to happen.
  19. ChescoWx
    Hello all. The ChescoWx website https://chescowx.com has had a major overhaul and it is now live! Everything is interactive now. You can pull up climate trends unique to the Philly burbs of Chester County PA for any measure, look at a single station or the whole county, and compare us against Philadelphia, Reading, or Allentown airports. There are all time records, decade summaries and climate trending options going back to the 1870's, top snowstorms, snow by season and even a White Christmas history. Every trend also tells you whether that trend is statistically significant or simply weather noise. Behind the enhanced website sits 42 Chester County area stations and more than 458,000 daily observations going back to 1871. Take a look and let me know what you think and what we are missing you would like to see or be able to view interactively. Thanks! Paul
  20. ChescoWx
    Hello all. The ChescoWx website https://chescowx.com has had a major overhaul and it is now live! Everything is interactive now. You can pull up climate trends unique to the Philly burbs of Chester County PA for any measure, look at a single station or the whole county, and compare us against Philadelphia, Reading, or Allentown airports. There are all time records, decade summaries and climate trending options going back to the 1870's, top snowstorms, snow by season and even a White Christmas history. Every trend also tells you whether that trend is statistically significant or simply weather noise. Behind the enhanced website sits 42 Chester County area stations and more than 458,000 daily observations going back to 1871. Take a look and let me know what you think and what we are missing you would like to see or be able to view interactively. Thanks! Paul
  21. forkyfork
  22. LongBeachSurfFreak
    I still think the best chance of anything more then a sheared mess comes out of the subtropics late sept into oct. likely starting a subtropical system and taking advantage of above normal water temps. The Mdr is toast. .
  23. forkyfork
    so stop looking at it? i don't even look at the gfs
  24. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  25. bluewave
    Relatively cooler over the Midwest due to the record rainfall with the severe storms leading to the new tornado record for Illinois.
  26. Guest

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU

    Guest commented on andrewmac's gallery image in Cloud Photos

    Trying out the new zoom on the TCU
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  27. GaWx
    CANSIPS appears to have a significant Modoki bias based on several years of data. I thought it had this bias even before this year.
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