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88 already at ewr. Heatwave begins today there

87 at noon. Forecast high is 92.

this feels like how models trend badly with snowfall events the processes are similar.

is it just for Monday or Tuesday too?

80s for NYC on Monday on the new 12z GFS.

One of these years we'll rip a good derecho through again

Let’s try and get this ..or something similar https://x.com/nwsgrandforks/status/1936314270964125714?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

88/65

Technically the 6z run was the halfway point between the 0z and 12z changes.

That may be true but now pretty much all the models have turned the winds from the ocean instead of from the NW. Bottom line if that wind direction is anywhere close to true we're not getting to 104 on Monday like the Euro had yesterday or the day before.

Excellent

These radical shifts are a sign of inaccuracy.

Late overnight and tomorrow morning is going to be 100% nowcast. If we can sneak the instability gradient a bit farther east we could see something roll through but this may be just too far west. If anything can form along a residual outflow boundary (again west) later in the day...that sucker could be huge...will have rising heights to contend with though

None of these models have a good history with modeling a sea breeze front, this is something you have to wait until the day of the event to have a handle on it.

0z ICON had near 100 and NWerly winds for NYC Monday and now the 12z run has 85 degrees with easterly winds hahaha We take

Just noticed 102 outlooked in point and click. Never saw an actual forecast for my area that high

-PNA/-NAO combo sounds a lot like some of those late 60s winters.

The RGEM, which had the medium grays (mid 100s) running into Suffolk County on the 6z run on Tuesday 5PM now has this at 12z:

Wow

Better today than tomorrow.

Picked up 1.01" of rain here this week. Up to 2.84" for the month now. Corn has really shot up. Most fields are waste high now, or higher.

Bluebird skies with a dew point of 54°. Cutting in the thorns while I can still wear long pants. Someone claimed dew points were going to be in the '60s and '70s for the remainder of the summer and that was like 3 days ago. I wonder what model he was looking at? if any...

Up to this point in time, I’m not seeing a ton of similarities with 2013

Alot of my friends are headed to the city today to escape the heat. They were thinking about the beach but decided to go to midtown

now 88 here lol