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There are things that matter for seasonal forecasts that models can see many months in advance, but there are also things that either they simply cannot see or are more regional/shorter temporally and so the forecasts won't see them for several months. As an example, and my memory is fuzzy, but there was a paper I believe that at least implied that the "Ridiculously Resilient Ridge" of 2013-2015 was substantially driven by the existing land/surface state (i.e. self reinforcing). And it's not like that is a novel concept, but the question is, what can these climate models realistically know about? I suspect a lot of these more nuanced land/sea configuration states do not reach the model forecast. What does that leave you? It leaves you where I started, with the things the model can see. I have no doubt that in the absence of other forcings the canonical El Nino forecast is what you would get every time. It is then our job as forecasters to determine what else is going to matter to modify or shift that enso signal. Forecasters like 40/70 Benchmark do a good job at this and consider the kaleidoscope of forcings to try to arrive at what may actually happen. But as he already noted, you will never have stronger enso forcing than this, so its reasonable to assume we end up closer to "climatology" than normal...whatever that is for a roided out Nino like this one.

0Z UKMETNEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 10.6N 37.5WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------0000UTC 13.08.2026 72 10.1N 38.8W 1011 251200UTC 13.08.2026 84 10.6N 41.9W 1011 270000UTC 14.08.2026 96 11.4N 44.8W 1011 291200UTC 14.08.2026 108 12.5N 48.2W 1011 290000UTC 15.08.2026 120 13.8N 51.7W 1012 321200UTC 15.08.2026 132 15.9N 56.4W 1011 380000UTC 16.08.2026 144 16.8N 60.2W 1011 401200UTC 16.08.2026 156 18.9N 63.7W 1009 510000UTC 17.08.2026 168 20.5N 65.9W 1008 35

PDS tornado warning NE of Streator.

This is not only the coldest CFSv2 forecast for JFM made in summer for the SE US to C Plains part of the U.S. in El Niño, it is by a good margin THE coldest JFM forecast for this area that I could find made from any season and in any ENSO back to the start of the CFSv2 in 2012! This is extreme, folks!

This is not only the coldest CFSv2 forecast for JFM made in summer for the SE US to C Plains part of the U.S. in El Niño, it is by a good margin THE coldest JFM forecast for this area that I could find made from any season and in any ENSO back to the start of the CFSv2 in 2012! This is extreme, folks!

We're past the hottest part of summer

Tornado warning for Peoria

Looks like something is trying or tried to spin up near Elgin.

Awesome day for a flight up Denali

Northern burbs next?

I was up there in Feb2007 and crazy epic

four tornado warnings in northern Illinois

Can say multi tornado language is something I haven’t seen before

Certainly looks like rotation north and south

That thing has to be rain wrapped

4 consecutive days and counting of 90+.

Reasonable outcome, but I don't put much stock in the output, otherwise.

Confirmed near Sublette.

Is that twinsies on that one northern cell?

Night of Twisters 2 being written in Illinois tonight.