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1:1 correlation with Strongest El Nino on record. Record low ACE to date too.

What happened to Mark Andrews 1yd QB sneaks? They worked so good last year, I think worked every single time. Not using it almost costed the game.

Ok, here we go again with the BoM RONI progs. As I’ve posted, the early near month prog of every near month of Apr-Aug ended up having been too warm as per their charts showing notably cooler in their final analyses vs these early progs. I now feel safe in saying that that’s happening with Sep, too, which would make 6 months in a row! Here was a Sep 5th prog, which had Sep near +3.0: Compare that to the brand new run (Sep 26th…see below), which has Sep MTD at only +2.4 with only 5 days to go (note the line from Aug to Sep is almost flat vs the steep slope of the Sep 5th run)! To compare, NOAA appears to be headed to a Sep of only ~+2.0 to +2.2. We’ll see next week where Sep. settles. I doubt it settles higher than +2.6. Thus, I continue to expect that the ~+3.8 peak that it still shows for Nov will end up not verifying even closely. Before that, I predict with confidence that the +3.5 of Oct won’t verify closely. Why would the clearcut pattern of significantly too warm near month progs change now? Besides, it would take pretty much a record warming for a one month period to reach from Sep’s mid +2s to Oct’s +3.5. Sound familiar? Several models earlier had predicted a record warming from July to August, which we know ended up busting badly. To show how out of touch with reality this has been the last 3 months, this Jul 4th run had July at +2.0, Aug at +2.7, and Sep at +3.0. Jul/Aug verified at only +1.7/+2.3 and Sep will verify only in the mid +2 area as mentioned. This warm bias is Déjà vu from 2023:

Too much attention on typhoons. What's more important is subsurface, especially near the thermocline. Why should a shallow layer of water on top control the atmosphere?

Repeat of the blizzard...same spots hammered, same spots T-boned. TBH, I'm just fine with expending this bullet from the chamber now, in the early autumn.

1.06" rainfall on the day in Methuen. .58" Saturday, .03" Friday for a 3-day event total of 1.67"

Im not a MET by all means but some things would seemingly contribute this NINO to how warm the PAC is,this has seemingly never happened before,while this NINO might compare to 1982 it was still that year of a+1.24 PDO in Sept which makes this NINO more rare,good luck with analogs,you might need some

https://partnerservices.nws.noaa.gov/products/cache/271-2026/PNSOKX/e299efee4c57e344ebf06b61c453b27a Public Information Statement National Weather Service New York NY 1001 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026 ...RAINFALL REPORTS FROM NOREASTER SO FAR... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...Connecticut... ...Fairfield County... Danbury Airport 1.97 in 0753 PM 09/27 ASOS Danbury 1.89 in 0830 PM 09/27 CWOP Danbury 1.79 in 0849 PM 09/27 AWS Ridgefield 1.65 in 0848 PM 09/27 AWS Stamford 1.55 in 0845 PM 09/27 AWS 1 N Stamford 1.53 in 0845 PM 09/27 AWS Greenwich 1.42 in 0850 PM 09/27 AWS Stamford 1.36 in 0849 PM 09/27 AWS 3 N New Canaan 1.36 in 0850 PM 09/27 AWS 2 E Greenwich 1.31 in 0850 PM 09/27 AWS ...Middlesex County... MOODUS 2.70 in 0845 PM 09/27 CWOP 3.5 NW Durham 2.04 in 0800 PM 09/27 HADS Saybrook Manor 1.54 in 0850 PM 09/27 AWS Clinton 1.14 in 0845 PM 09/27 AWS ...New Haven County... 4 NW Hamden 2.81 in 0850 PM 09/27 AWS Wallingford 2.80 in 0850 PM 09/27 AWS Meriden Airport 2.77 in 0813 PM 09/27 ASOS Wallingford 2.35 in 0831 PM 09/27 CWOP Waterbury Airport 1.88 in 0756 PM 09/27 AWOS Oxford 1.78 in 0833 PM 09/27 CWOP 1.9 NW Naugatuck 1.46 in 0830 PM 09/27 HADS ...New London County... Norwich 3.09 in 0830 AM 09/27 AWS GROTON 2.01 in 0830 PM 09/27 CWOP New London 1.75 in 0815 PM 09/27 CWOP Lyme 1.24 in 0845 PM 09/27 CWOP ...New Jersey... ...Bergen County... New Milford 1.96 in 0845 PM 09/27 AWS Paramus 1.89 in 0850 PM 09/27 AWS Lyndhurst 1.72 in 0843 PM 09/27 AWS Teterboro Airport 1.69 in 0851 PM 09/27 ASOS Bogota 1.54 in 0848 PM 09/27 AWS North Arlington 1.50 in 0850 PM 09/27 AWS Leonia 1.49 in 0850 PM 09/27 AWS Bergenfield 1.38 in 0830 PM 09/27 CWOP 1 SSE Franklin Lakes 1.34 in 0745 PM 09/27 IFLOWS Lodi 1.32 in 0745 PM 09/27 IFLOWS Oakland 1.30 in 0850 PM 09/27 AWS 0.6 W Oakland 1.04 in 0800 PM 09/27 HADS ...Essex County... 1 W Newark 2.08 in 0845 PM 09/27 AWS Maplewood 1.88 in 0810 PM 09/27 IFLOWS 0.6 SW Caldwell 1.80 in 0745 PM 09/27 IFLOWS Millburn 1.77 in 0850 PM 09/27 AWS Montclair 1.68 in 0850 PM 09/27 AWS 2 S Kearny 1.58 in 0848 PM 09/27 AWS West Caldwell 1.55 in 0849 PM 09/27 AWS Caldwell 1.42 in 0753 PM 09/27 ASOS Orange Reservoir 1.32 in 0800 PM 09/27 IFLOWS Fairfield 1.24 in 0850 PM 09/27 AWS West Orange 1.07 in 0842 PM 09/27 CWOP ...Hudson County... Hoboken 2.27 in 0847 PM 09/27 CWOP Harrison 2.02 in 0849 PM 09/27 AWS ...Passaic County... Ringwood 1.49 in 0810 PM 09/27 RAWS 0.8 E West Paterson 1.38 in 0745 PM 09/27 HADS 0.8 SE Pompton Lakes 1.22 in 0830 PM 09/27 HADS 1 NNE North Caldwell 1.22 in 0849 PM 09/27 AWS Charlottesburg Reservoir 1.20 in 0745 PM 09/27 COOP Clifton 1.13 in 0850 PM 09/27 AWS 0.9 S Wayne 1.12 in 0745 PM 09/27 IFLOWS ...Union County... Union 2.31 in 0845 PM 09/27 CWOP Newark Airport 2.21 in 0851 PM 09/27 ASOS Mountainside 2.14 in 0830 PM 09/27 IFLOWS ...New York... ...Bronx County... 1 NE Harlem 2.01 in 0850 PM 09/27 AWS Fordham 1.29 in 0850 PM 09/27 NYSM ...Kings County... Prospect Park 3.34 in 0845 PM 09/27 AWS BROOKLYN 3.28 in 0845 PM 09/27 CWOP BROOKLYN 3.08 in 0836 PM 09/27 CWOP Brooklyn College 1.74 in 0850 PM 09/27 NYSM ...Nassau County... East Rockaway 3.55 in 0818 PM 09/27 CWOP 1 ESE Long Beach 3.02 in 0845 PM 09/27 AWS Levittown 2.66 in 0845 PM 09/27 AWS East Hills 2.58 in 0850 PM 09/27 AWS Mineola 1.89 in 0848 PM 09/27 AWS Wantagh 1.45 in 0850 PM 09/27 NYSM 1 N Merrick 1.34 in 0846 PM 09/27 AWS Bethpage 1.27 in 0848 PM 09/27 AWS ...New York (Manhattan) County... Central Park 2.57 in 0851 PM 09/27 ASOS Battery Park 1.48 in 0849 PM 09/27 AWS Central Park 1.23 in 0850 PM 09/27 AWS ...Orange County... 2.6 NW Tuxedo Park 1.24 in 0745 PM 09/27 HADS Tuxedo Park 1.19 in 0850 PM 09/27 AWS Cornwall On Hudson 1.04 in 0700 PM 09/27 COCORAHS Harriman 1.00 in 0850 PM 09/27 AWS ...Putnam County... Brewster 1.41 in 0835 AM 09/27 NYSM ...Queens County... NYC/JFK Airport 3.08 in 0851 PM 09/27 ASOS Bellerose 2.32 in 0831 PM 09/27 CWOP NYC/La Guardia 1.92 in 0851 PM 09/27 ASOS MIDDLE VILLAGE 1.85 in 0820 PM 09/27 CWOP Kew Garden Hills 1.74 in 0850 PM 09/27 NYSM LONG ISLAND CITY 1.60 in 0846 PM 09/27 CWOP ...Richmond County... Eltingville 2.55 in 0845 PM 09/27 CWOP College of Staten Island 1.77 in 0850 PM 09/27 NYSM ...Rockland County... Pomona 1.78 in 0849 PM 09/27 AWS 1 SSW Mount Ivy 1.66 in 0849 PM 09/27 AWS Bardonia 1.56 in 0848 PM 09/27 AWS Spring Valley 1.49 in 0830 PM 09/27 CWOP 0.9 N Montebello 1.48 in 0830 PM 09/27 HADS Nanuet 1.46 in 0830 PM 09/27 IFLOWS New City 1.46 in 0848 PM 09/27 AWS Suffern 1.26 in 0848 PM 09/27 AWS Suffern 1.19 in 0850 PM 09/27 NYSM Stony Point 1.06 in 0849 PM 09/27 AWS ...Suffolk County... Upton (NWS Office) 5.33 in 0800 PM 09/27 Official NWS Obs Eastport 4.73 in 0845 PM 09/27 RAWS East Hampton 4.60 in 0850 PM 09/27 CWOP Deer Park 1.0 NE 4.40 in 0700 PM 09/27 COCORAHS Westhampton Airport 4.01 in 0807 PM 09/27 ASOS Shirley Airport 3.75 in 0756 PM 09/27 ASOS 2 E Dix Hills 3.58 in 0850 PM 09/27 AWS Islip Airport 3.42 in 0756 PM 09/27 ASOS Montauk Airport 3.41 in 0754 PM 09/27 ASOS 2 WNW Riverhead 3.40 in 0848 PM 09/27 AWS 1 E East Hampton Airport 3.38 in 0755 PM 09/27 AWOS SMITHTOWN 3.14 in 0845 PM 09/27 CWOP Northport 3.00 in 0845 PM 09/27 CWOP Southold 2.52 in 0845 PM 09/27 CWOP North Babylon 2.31 in 0845 PM 09/27 CWOP ...Westchester County... 1 S Peach Lake 1.83 in 0835 AM 09/27 AWS White Plains Airport 1.67 in 0842 PM 09/27 ASOS CHAPPAQUA 1.64 in 0847 PM 09/27 CWOP Larchmont 1.1 NNE 1.56 in 0400 PM 09/27 COCORAHS 1 NW Rye 1.56 in 0848 PM 09/27 AWS Pleasantville 1.56 in 0850 PM 09/27 AWS Yorktown Heights 1.44 in 0845 PM 09/27 AWS 1 SSE Hartsdale 1.30 in 0850 PM 09/27 AWS Somers 1.22 in 0835 AM 09/27 NYSM Midland Park 1.12 in 0745 PM 09/27 IFLOWS &&

From a wind/flooding perspective yes. Maybe a bit more rain since they usually come in October/November when storms are less juiced up

Disappointed w/the amount of outside house Halloween decorations up as I made my way around this weekend. A bunch of slackers...

Hawaii now has the most outages in the U.S. with ~11K. Almost all are on Maui, where a whopping 15% are without power. https://poweroutage.us/area/state/hawaii

Why do you think they’re getting warmer?

Who’s starting the CAPE storm thread?

Even with a phoon its not helping out with the PDO with those waters,doing nothing but reverse,those waters still should be colder and not getting warmer into the Yellow Sea and Sea of Japan

HFD had sustained 70 mph and CON gusted to 113 mph, at or above 1938. ALB G83 mph, NYC G94 mph, and EWR G108mph, well above 1938. Areal coverage of the high-end winds was significantly more in the NEUS and Mid-Atlantic than 1938, so I could easily see the biggest power outages on record when happening again.

Andrea Gail.

Catching up to me at 4.41”

Arizona has enough water. AZ and NM stole all the rain from Odalys and Polo.

Noted MQE up to 7.55". In the 1991 Perfect Storm, they had almost 6" for the highest in the region. What is @CoastalWx up to? Does his lawn thank him? Observer in Bridgewater just messaged me and he said he is up to 8.06" as of 10pm. Hello 10"!?