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I thought there was supposed to be a big cold snap around Thanksgiving?

True, but I also have seen the exact opposite posted from those social media posters who preach warmth only to have had it extremely muted as we moved closer in time. Both sides play the same game and never admit to it. Don and others here like to point out and scold the "cold/snow" posters, but there is an equal amount of warm biased posters as well that have large followings. This past summer, we had 1 really hot spell with 100s that lasted 3 days, but tons of times i saw day 10 maps with more 100s posted and dumb write ups on them only for those days turn out to be 91 or 92.

Ask Scooter

I pretty much run my business from two spots on the couch or the dining room table if I need to spread out papers. I go visit customers when I feel like wearing real shoes or I need a break from the wife

Don’t think that’s gonna happen this year…but torture yourself if you must.

Looking specifically at Erie, the low end GLERL projection would bring lake levels down to 173.78 meters by late winter, which has only been reached or exceeded twice since the mid 1960s on a monthly average - 173.78m in March 2003 & 173.75m in February 2011. That's going with the low-end projection, so it might not happen, but certainly a stark contrast from the near record high levels of 2019 & 2020.

Only 0.21" so far this month here. 2.18" is the avg for Nov. A very dry Oct-Nov up here. Oct was 10th driest with 0.63".

I do agree that the majority of it is a cesspool, though.

Yes. That’s true.

Depends whom you follow. DT has been all over it.

He’s probably right regarding social media. But it has been discussed fairly widely here.

It’s pretty good. Can get boring after a while though, so sometimes I go in

I've been shafted, as well....last normal snowfall season was 2017-2018....haven't come within 10" since.

Also re long range: trash the GFS, all of us need to. It performed miserably this tropical season. It might’ve been the least reliable global. I’ll take a gander at the ensembles for this winter but the OP needs to hold as much credence as the Icon at range.

I mean one day we will have that pattern in place again but for the last few winters it’s been uniquely set up to shaft this area. The results speak for themselves.

I'm so pissed I forgot to incorporate the MJO behavior of my primary analog into the December forecast....what an oversight.

Agree on all points. I’ve got a good feeling about this winter. I think we muster at least one good storm that gets us to climo. The models NEVER showed a cold SE the first week/week and a half of Dec. Idk why there are so many conversations online about can kicking. A few OP runs tried to anchor the cold prematurely and now people are over worried about what the GFS and Euro ops show beyond 300 hrs. It’s just noise. Phase 7 is going to do phase 7 things. The ridge will flex a bit and all of this is going to be a step down process like it always is. We went through this same song and dance last December and it ended up being the coldest winter in a while, too much so, in fact. It was suppression city after Christmas. I think after we see a few cutters, my gut says it’s game on beyond Dec 15th just based on where the MJO is likely headed. And that’s fine. I’m not a huge fan of pissing phase 8 and potentially phase 1 down the pot from Thanksgiving to Christmas. It’s going to take a really high amplitude pass through those phases to deliver in what’s essentially late fall. I like what I’m seeing line up. I think this pattern offers some future potential for something we haven’t seen a lot through the years: anchored highs in favorable locations and storms riding the boundary to the south.

I've seen plenty of acknowledgement that early December will warm again before the hammer drops.

Did you get my DM?

Eric Webb @webberweather It’s easy to spot Convectively Coupled Kelvin waves (blue dashed lines) propagating quickly thru the mjo envelope (black dashed line) the next few weeks on the forecast VP200a Hovmöller (left) This is largely why you’re seeing these loop-de-loops on the RMM phase plots (right)

If the mets are right with our window only being Dec 1-15 before it warms again.. it’s another warm holiday period

Another morning in the teens here, 18.9°F was the low, Been on a run of teens low 20's for the past 7 days or so.

This is a wonderful site for people to get lessons from and implore many folks to check it out. There are a few tropical courses that touch on this subject of SPV and MJO propagation that could be very useful. I believe it is still free and no student email is needed. https://www.meted.ucar.edu/