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How is Central MA looking between now and noon for rain and severe potential? Need to bring my kiddo in to get his wisdom teeth out this morning and wondering we'll be lucky enough to get back home before the worst of the weather gets here.

Picked up 1.8" here from the overnight rains, july monthly total at 7.25" now

Extended the stat analysis to the 1970s to include the West Chester move. Two comparisons were made: individual years using 1972 minus 1945 as a metric, and a 5-year average using 1971-75 minus 1941-45 as a metric. The results are the same for both metrics: the Chester County COOPs are significantly different from the non-Chesco stations, cooling by 2.2F relative to the other stations using the 5-year averages. Strong evidence that the larger NCEI bias adjustments are very robust statistically. This analysis also shows the problems with AI. As Don stated above its handy for an initial screening; but, unlikely to give a complete and accurate answer to a complex problem.

Kind of surprised that area isn't in a high risk for flash flooding

Check out Albany radar. You can see that the flow just off the deck is coming in from the west north west right towards the Hudson Valley while it’s SE near and SE of Albany. Just a classic convergence corridor wringing out all this rain. Gonna be big-time issues there.

That said, they’ll be some enhancement when that moisture does make it into the upslope SE flow zones.

6z ICON.has 14 more for eastern NY

And Nam too far SE

The biggest totals will be west of them I think. I saw a lot of talk from many around here on TV about upslope and all that probably because hi res love to treat every 500’ hill as the Sierra. But it’s all about convergence as we spoke about. That area getting crushed is downsloped on SE flows. Atmosphere don’t care when there is a good convergence zone and moisture conduit off the deck.

Latest HRRR is way off with that meso low.. curious to see what it does in future runs

Rain just started here…much later start than we were told and expected, but radar looks impressive now.

Im at Jiminy Peak, light rain now but looks better upstream, there is a creek flowing hard that looks like decent flood potential, will see at daybreak how its doing after the rain picks up.

I was just going to post this.. seems like the Berks might be under the gun later on

Yeah for the entire system Hudson valley ftw. Low looks a little east of earlier guidance.

The Hudson River going to flood NYC? The entire river valley is getting pummeled.

I'll be in chase mode later on

Alittle under 5” total.

How is it looking for us further east in E CT/RI

Ended up at .57" yesterday.

Interestingly, this was one of the snowiest winters on record for the Southern Appalachians.

Here's a closer look at the statistics of the Coatesville and Phoenixville post war moves. Differences between stations was removed by setting 1945 to zero to facilitate comparison between stations. Coatesville and Phoenixville behaved differently than the other stations, cooling relative to the other stations at the time of the moves; and, remaining cooler after the moves.. Using the temperature difference between 1945 and 1952 as a metric, Coatesville and Phoenixville are significantly different from 11 stations without station changes. The P value is 0.0001 which means that there is virtually no chance that Phoenixville and Coatesville are the same as the other 11 stations. Furthermore Phoenixville and Coatesville are significantly different from the other stations in every year after the moves in this period. Finally note also the good agreement among the 11 stations without changes. Chester County shares the same weather with a much larger region. Many stations can provide useful information on the Chester County COOP stations; which makes the identification of Chester County station changes very robust.

I did not want to bring up the "feels like" temp, as that is out of control as to abuse, but it can be of use b/c "the door swings both ways!" Once you get below 57 or 58 dew point, the heat index is actually lower than the air temp! I would bet not many mets know or actively realize this. I did not know until about 10 years ago! I've spoken to ppl deployed in the Middle East, they can get perspective! After in that sauna for a few months, coming home, 95 feels great! Acclimation I think is underrated. When I moved to DC, it took me a few summers to get used to the more 90 temps and the more persistent high dew point, which get into the upper 70s more common here. By my 3rd summer, I not longer noticed it. I adapted. However, the flip side is that I am not as tolerant to cold. This past winter was by far the coldest here since I moved here, and I noticed! I think from the general public POV, they think MT is "cold." Most have zero idea what continental climate is like, and MT is the best state for temp swings in the CONUS. It is the only state in the Lower 48 that has had sig snow at lower elevations (I am taking Great Falls proper) in August (happened in 1992). It's even worse for AK. Ppl are shocked to learn AK highest temps is 100 F, and that they get a lot tstms (all squeezed into J-J-A). Some locations get 30 days w/ thunder, more than a lot of New England! And of course, tornadoes. We had that one earlier this month, but I would bet good $$ there are 3-5 tornado in AK each year, just it is so large and sparsely populated, it precludes detection.

Getting destroyed out here. Firehose off the ocean. Up to 1.67”. As usual those calling bust 2 hours into an event look foolish

EF0 passes close to ineedsnow house will make it EPIC!

I wasn't alive then, doesn't count