ChescoWx Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Thanks Iceman!!!....I think there will be a big difference over even 200 feet tomorrow in our area. It will be interesting to see what you see.....the good news like you said - I don't think there will be much shoveling for my wife as it should melt on contact during the PM and most of the accumulation will be on the non-paved surfaces Paul I'll walk up my hill where it's 682' at the top, house is at 352' and see what effect 330' has.Not sure it will be too different, ground was frozen solid this morning at the house and shouldbe frozen again after tonight.Pretty sure your driveway will be bare by the time you get back... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Ok Ray what's your call for TTN and environs. I'll go for 3-4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 Yeah, sounds about right. Trout season starts April 4th this year in SE PA. And in years past I would come home w/a "farmers tan" many times... local trout derby here canceled. ice to thick on lake. same thing happened last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 can't argue against mt holly imo. great forecast map, wouldn't change a thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 can't argue against mt holly imo. great forecast map, wouldn't change a thing. StormTotalSnowRange.png I think theyre too low for coastal monmouth tho. looks like a 2-5" thumping from everything ive seen. I guess theyre anticipating a quicker mix or change to rain there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 local trout derby here canceled. ice to thick on lake. same thing happened last year. Lakes (standing water) will freeze up your way. I do the creek and streams (French/Perkiomen etc creeks) which basically never freeze. I've been out early in the morning w/flurries and frost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 19, 2015 Share Posted March 19, 2015 I think theyre too low for coastal monmouth tho. looks like a 2-5" thumping from everything ive seen. I guess theyre anticipating a quicker mix or change to rain there That, plus the fact that Belmar will be 1-2F warmer at the surface than, say Somerville. The surface temp, on its own is enough to make the difference between 0.6" of LE falling as snow accumulating 5" vs. 2", given greater melting rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 That, plus the fact that Belmar will be 1-2F warmer at the surface than, say Somerville. The surface temp, on its own is enough to make the difference between 0.6" of LE falling as snow accumulating 5" vs. 2", given greater melting rates. yea,,I agree. many of the models are showing blm right around 32 during the bulk of the storm. if its a couple degrees warmer I could see maybe only a couple inches of slush. tough call. I just think 1-2" for blm is too low but we shall see. that ocean is very cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 20, 2015 Author Share Posted March 20, 2015 yea,,I agree. many of the models are showing blm right around 32 during the bulk of the storm. if its a couple degrees warmer I could see maybe only a couple inches of slush. tough call. I just think 1-2" for blm is too low but we shall see. that ocean is very cold Here's the raw guidance from the most recent GFS/NAM/EC at BLM: GFS - 35F at 8AM, 36F at 2PM, 36F at 8PM EC - 36F at 8AM, 35F at 2PM, 34F at 8PM NAM - 33F at 8AM, 33F at 2PM, 33F at 8PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Here's the raw guidance from the most recent GFS/NAM/EC at BLM: GFS - 35F at 8AM, 36F at 2PM, 36F at 8PM EC - 36F at 8AM, 35F at 2PM, 34F at 8PM NAM - 33F at 8AM, 33F at 2PM, 33F at 8PM hmmm,,,,thanks for posting. I thought it was colder. maybe nws wont be far off on there numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Start time is critical on this one, put some snow down quick before sunrise, I believe we could get some decent accum I'm going with a 5-6 inch thump (up this way) before spring starts at 6:45. Why not end with some gusto? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 A bit more snow this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 NAM loves squirrel country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Tough to know what to root for. Low dews will keep temps down north of TTN, but slower saturation means less likelihood of getting snow down on paved surfaces before the sun gets to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 HRRR seems to be showing a much warmer event. Indicates it might not snow at all in NJ all the way through 16z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 20, 2015 Author Share Posted March 20, 2015 0Z RGEM and NAM snow from meteocentre... take with grain of salt, bl is still a bit warm especially low elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Almost all guidance has clicked warmer. This will be fun to observe. I think its strictly intensity driven as far as accumulations go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 20, 2015 Author Share Posted March 20, 2015 0Z GGEM and GFS snowfall on meteocentre... again, with marginal BL's, take these with a grain of salt especially at lower elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alfoxyny Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Anything new on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Anything new on the Euro? Looks warmish....has the slp tucked into the Delmarva. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sophisticated Skeptic Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 6z nam is way cold and snowier. (10m temps) funny if it beats em all out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Interesting to see the gradients across Mercer and Middlesex, with 2-3" in the SE sections of each county, then 3-4" in the central portions and 4-6" in the NW sections. NWS also updated their discussion a few minutes ago, talking about it being a bit snowier/colder and even mentioning power outages for areas that receive 6" or more of heavy wet snow (possible in some spots, especially in Central Jersey). Still don't expect much accumulations on major roads, during midday, but after about 4-5 pm as the sun gets lower in the sky and snowfall rates exceed melting rates, could see some slush highways, just in time for the Friday pm rush. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...930 AM ESTF SENT EARLIER AROUND 840 AM EDT AND AN SPS FOR THEREGION BORDERING OUR SOUTHERN WXA (MD/DE) POSTING NOW WHERE WEWILL SEE STRETCHES OF SLUSHY ACCUM THIS MORNING.OTRW HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS/DEWS THIS MORNING AND LINGERED SNOW LONGERIN THE WX GRIDS AND TAKEN ALL MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF N CENTRAL NJTHIS AFTN.WXA CONTINUES AS POSTED THE LAST SEVERAL SHIFTS.A SMALL CONCERN: IF WE DEVELOP A STRIPE OF 6 INCH WET SNOW SE PATHROUGH CENTRAL NJ, WE WOULD SEE SOME POWER OUTAGES. I TEND TO USE6 INCHES OF 32-33F SNOW AS MY DELIMITER FOR POWER PROBLEMS, DESPITEONLY 30-50 PCT OF THAT AMT ON PAVED SFCS`S.I MAY ADD "HEAVY" SNOW RATES TO THE FCST FOR THE REGION NEAR 1-78AND 30 MI EITHER SIDE IN THE 930 AM OR 1030 UPDATE.THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW WILL ACCUMULATEON PAVED SURFACES. HOWEVER, DO EXPECT ACCUMULATION WITH THE HIGHERSNOW RATES EXPECTED THIS AFTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 No obs thread - people don't like a snow on the vernal equinox? C'mon folks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 20, 2015 Author Share Posted March 20, 2015 No obs thread - people don't like a snow on the vernal equinox? C'mon folks... ummm.... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46065-first-day-of-spring-snowstorm320-obs/ Just 41 posts long already, no biggy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 For being a grass only storm we sure have one hell of mess up here. I'm sitting on 78 west. Which is shut down and snow covered !!! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 12Z nam with more snow than 6Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 12Z nam with more snow than 6Z nam3-20-12Z.png glad to see mount holly really up the totals for Monmouth cty 4-6" county wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 12z NAM 5-6" SEPA 12z GFS 6-8" SEPA Let's see who wins. Rates aren't the best think the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 If latest HRRR is right I am getting 8" snow today. Wow and GFS ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 20, 2015 Share Posted March 20, 2015 Winter storm warning anybody? cough cough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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