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Winter Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley - 2014


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SFC LOW PRES WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
NY...AND THEN SFC LOW PRES FORMS AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE ARE MANY DIFFERENCES AMONG THE
LONG RANGE MODELS IN TERMS OF PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THESE
LOWS...BUT WOULD EXPECT PRECIP TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH
THE REGION. THE ONE THING THAT THE MODELS HAVE IN COMMON IS THE
ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS FALLING
ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...AND THEN TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

THIS WILL BRING ABOUT PTYPE ISSUES FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP ALL SNOW CONFINED TO INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SW
CT....
AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW INTO NYC AND SOUTHERN CT. WILL KEEP
PRECIP ALL RAIN FOR LONG ISLAND. THE QUESTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
IS HOW FAR WEST TO SPREAD THE PRECIP. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN ZONES. OBVIOUSLY...THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE SEVERAL TIMES BASED ON
THE NEWEST MODEL RUNS. IT IS ALSO WAY TOO SOON TO DETERMINE HOW
MUCH SNOW...IF ANY...WILL ACCUMULATE.


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Upton evening forecast discussion:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY

444 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT

WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA

ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO IMPACT THE

AREA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE REGION MOVES OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE

HIGH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW

TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 40S. EXCEPT LOWS MAY STAY IN THE

LOWER 50S ACROSS THE NYC METRO...AND SHOULD DROP INTO THE MIDDLE

AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS...MAINLY NORTH AND

WEST OF NYC. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER OFFSHORE ON

TUESDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS WILL ALLOW

TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ACROSS MUCH

OF THE REGION. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH

THE DAY AS A COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST APPROACHES.

CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN TUESDAY NIGHT. WILL INTRODUCE SLIGHT

CHANCE POPS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST

OF NYC...AS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BE POSSIBLE BEFORE

SUNRISE.

TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD...WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE

50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

CLOSED LOW PRES NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH AND

INTO NORTHERN CANADA ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS WILL DRAG A SFC COLD

FRONT THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. MODELS SEEM TO BREAK AN

UPPER TROUGH OFF FROM THE UPPER LOW...AND THE SFC FRONT LOSES ITS

UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. CAN EXPECT

SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF

QPF. MOST OF THE SHOWERS COULD TAPER OFF BEFORE THEY MAKE IT TO

EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

WEAK SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND THEN

MOVES OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. SHARP CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN THEN

ON TAP FOR THE WEEKEND. DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CARVE AN UPPER

TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. SFC LOW PRES WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN

NY...AND THEN SFC LOW PRES FORMS AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FRIDAY

NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THERE ARE MANY DIFFERENCES AMONG THE

LONG RANGE MODELS IN TERMS OF PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THESE

LOWS...BUT WOULD EXPECT PRECIP TO DEVELOP LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO

SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS IS POSSIBLE

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH

THE REGION. THE ONE THING THAT THE MODELS HAVE IN COMMON IS THE

ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL SPILL INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS FALLING

ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND

SATURDAY...AND THEN TEMPS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL

FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND.

THIS WILL BRING ABOUT PTYPE ISSUES FOR AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND

SATURDAY MORNING...AND POSSIBLY AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND

SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP ALL SNOW CONFINED TO INTERIOR

PORTIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SW

CT....AND A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW INTO NYC AND SOUTHERN CT. WILL KEEP

PRECIP ALL RAIN FOR LONG ISLAND. THE QUESTION FOR SATURDAY NIGHT

IS HOW FAR WEST TO SPREAD THE PRECIP. FOR NOW...WILL CARRY SLIGHT

CHANCE POPS OVER EASTERN ZONES. OBVIOUSLY...THIS IS A LOW

CONFIDENCE FORECAST AND WILL LIKELY CHANGE SEVERAL TIMES BASED ON

THE NEWEST MODEL RUNS. IT IS ALSO WAY TOO SOON TO DETERMINE HOW

MUCH SNOW...IF ANY...WILL ACCUMULATE.

TEMPS THIS PERIOD WILL START OUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL...IN THE UPPER

60S TO AROUND 70...ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN WILL DROP BACK TO

NORMAL FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO

AROUND 60. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN

THE 40S ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND CONDS SHOULD MODERATE

SOMEWHAT BY MONDAY.

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New thread for the next several months..

hopefully we get lucky this year.

Numerous bust early last year with snow predictions.

Leason #1, don't use snow ratios. Poor dry air typically kills you.

If NYC weenies are barking, we shouuld just drive south and get a hotel.

I got 75 last year, which 45 came in 4 weeks.

End of Feb through March was a shut out.

Best of luck friends!

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New thread for the next several months..

hopefully we get lucky this year.

Numerous bust early last year with snow predictions.

Leason #1, don't use snow ratios. Poor dry air typically kills you.

If NYC weenies are barking, we shouuld just drive south and get a hotel.

I got 75 last year, which 45 came in 4 weeks.

End of Feb through March was a shut out.

Best of luck friends!

 

We got burned quite a few times expecting high ratios. Regardless 75" is about 150% of normal for the area and a good winter. 

 

Currently 45f and expecting some flakes in the air tomorrow.

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New thread for the next several months..

hopefully we get lucky this year.

Numerous bust early last year with snow predictions.

Leason #1, don't use snow ratios. Poor dry air typically kills you.

If NYC weenies are barking, we shouuld just drive south and get a hotel.

I got 75 last year, which 45 came in 4 weeks.

End of Feb through March was a shut out.

Best of luck friends!

Why is this identical to the first post. I'm confused by this thread.

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New thread for the next several months..

hopefully we get lucky this year.

Numerous bust early last year with snow predictions.

Leasson #1, don't use snow ratios. Poor dry air typically kills you.

If NYC weenies are barking, we shouuld just drive south and get a hotel.

I got 75 last year, which 45 came in 4 weeks.

End of Feb through March was a shut out.

Best of luck friends!

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Why is this identical to the first post. I'm confused by this thread.

Because for some reason he edited his first post and the title of the thread instead of waiting and starting a new winter thread. So when searching for the summer thread, it no longer exists in title.

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Because for some reason he edited his first post and the title of the thread instead of waiting and starting a new winter thread. So when searching for the summer thread, it no longer exists in title.

Oooh. I was wondering why anyone would start a winter thread in March.
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