ag3 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Someone said the GGEM had 0.40" for NYC but what I'm seeing shows less than 0.30"... Black and White maps has NYC and east on the 5mm-10mm shade, closer to 10mm total. Which should be .40". Its probably closer to .30"-.40". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The next 24 hours in this thread will consist of people trying to rationalize why the model that shows the most snow will be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The next last 24 hours in this thread will consist has consisted of people trying to rationalize why the model that shows the most snow will be right. Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingwill Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 And with a phase, the low would have a high chance of hugging the coast because of no blocking up north, and bringing the coast rain or a mix. This is why I was never that excited either for this pattern. We really need that block or confluence up north to come back before we can start having major snow threats again. These kind of progressive Nina patterns that are northern stream dominated are very rarely fruitful for our area. When these systems do access moisture and energy, 9 times out of 10 they cut without a block in place. 2-4" or 3-5" would be a nice treat anyways. I don't know about U but I have had 2 big snowstorms already so a little 2 to 4 event just adds to the totals..True this one doesn't look like a "Big Daddy" but Next weeks event looks to be a much more potent system just need to work out the variables to stay frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Hmm... well I suppose I should double check what I've been looking at then, maybe its that 3-hour timestep that the GEM likes to put out much to my annoyance. Canadians GOT to be different... Black and White maps has NYC and east on the 5mm-10mm shade, closer to 10mm total. Which should be .40". Its probably closer to .30"-.40". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 12z GGEM ensemble mean shows 0.25-0.50 QPF throughout the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Wait a tic... why'd this just change to less? Black and White maps has NYC and east on the 5mm-10mm shade, closer to 10mm total. Which should be .40". Its probably closer to .30"-.40". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 And with a phase, the low would have a high chance of hugging the coast because of no blocking up north, and bringing the coast rain or a mix. This is why I was never that excited either for this pattern. We really need that block or confluence up north to come back before we can start having major snow threats again. These kind of progressive Nina patterns that are northern stream dominated are very rarely fruitful for our area. When these systems do access moisture and energy, 9 times out of 10 they cut without a block in place. 2-4" or 3-5" would be a nice treat anyways. The heights are low enough downstream where they need to be and there is transient ridging across Greenland as the storm is amplifying, so I think even with a strong phase a mostly/all snow event would have occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Wait a tic... why'd this just change to less? Maybe your cache? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Maybe your cache? Raleigh's site says it only starts updating the GEM at 2:30 PM... and this image looks essentially like what I said about NYC being a tad less than 0.30"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The next 24 hours in this thread will consist of people trying to rationalize why the model that shows the most snow will be right. The NAM has been great all year, I'm not thrilled with it being quite dry and weak compared to most guidance...the GEM and UKMET though are exhibiting way different tendencies than they have on any other event...that alone makes me less certain the NAM is nailing this event as well...overall we have a much different pattern for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 take the 3" and be satisfied...expect the same next week...you'll sleep better...1916-17 had their largest snowstorm in December and many minor events after...the next significant storms were late February and early March...April too...Though nothing like the December storm...We are so far a head of that year now and more snow is coming...I'd love to see another 2' blizzard but the chances for that happening are slim... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The NAM has been great all year, I'm not thrilled with it being quite dry and weak compared to most guidance...the GEM and UKMET though are exhibiting way different tendencies than they have on any other event...that alone makes me less certain the NAM is nailing this event as well...overall we have a much different pattern for this event. Has it really been that great? I seem to recall it was among the very last models to grab onto 12/26... maybe only coming around at 12Z or 18Z on the 25th, even after the EC had jumped back onboard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Raleigh's site says it only starts updating the GEM at 2:30 PM... and this image looks essentially like what I said about NYC being a tad less than 0.30"... Yes, but if you look at the black and white maps on the main canadian site, weatheroffice, from hour 36-48, NYC and west is in the 5mm shade. and from hours 48-60, NYC and east is in the 5mm shade again. NYC is 8-10mm. So .30"-.40" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Using this handy snow ratio calculator, I calculated a 15:1 ratio for ABE, which would amount to about 3.3" of snow taking the NAM verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Wait a tic... why'd this just change to less? This map sums up Central PA's entire winter. I'd kill for a 4" storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Fixed That it rolls here. Snowiest model is the best model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The phase never really happens on the 18z NAM I don't really understand this comment. This storm has been pretty consistently modeled over the past couple of days apart from a few overzealous runs of the NAM that had minor differences that primarily affected the surface features. To me, the streams are clearly phased. There seems to be a conflation between the term "phase" and a storm tracking close enough to give good QPF. "No phase" sounds very much like an IMBY perspective. I think this is headed toward a major storm. But we were on the SW fringe of a developing gale from the start. The streams are or rather will be phased and the Maritimes look to get hit pretty good. I never saw this as a phase/no phase situation. Sure I was concerned that the southern s/w not lag, but I was much more interested to see the entire trof structure dig further into the south so that the storm development process could initiate sooner. This is kind of like being in southern Va when we get hit good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 "No phase" sounds very much like an IMBY perspective. So you're saying that he really meant "No phase for you." Phase Nazi? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Has it really been that great? I seem to recall it was among the very last models to grab onto 12/26... maybe only coming around at 12Z or 18Z on the 25th, even after the EC had jumped back onboard... Thats true, it was very good inside 24 hours on that once it did catch on so I assume we can say there is still hope the NAM will jump onto the wetter scenario or somewhat stronger this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Has it really been that great? I seem to recall it was among the very last models to grab onto 12/26... maybe only coming around at 12Z or 18Z on the 25th, even after the EC had jumped back onboard... GFS first at 0Z then again 12/18z when HPC tossed it. NAM came onboad full time at 18Z that same day. ECMWF came at 0Z 6 hours later--perhaps if it had an 18Z run it also would have. Hard to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I don't really understand this comment. This storm has been pretty consistently modeled over the past couple of days apart from a few overzealous runs of the NAM that had minor differences that primarily affected the surface features. To me, the streams are clearly phased. There seems to be a conflation between the term "phase" and a storm tracking close enough to give good QPF. "No phase" sounds very much like an IMBY perspective. I think this is headed toward a major storm. But we were on the SW fringe of a developing gale from the start. The streams are or rather will be phased and the Maritimes look to get hit pretty good. I never saw this as a phase/no phase situation. Sure I was concerned that the southern s/w not lag, but I was much more interested to see the entire trof structure dig further into the south so that the storm development process could initiate sooner. This is kind of like being in southern Va when we get hit good. Usually people that live in the Eastern US are primarily interested in phases that occur over the United States. Why should I care that the shortwave that dropped a coating of snow here phased eventually and gave Newfoundland a foot plus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I don't really understand this comment. This storm has been pretty consistently modeled over the past couple of days apart from a few overzealous runs of the NAM that had minor differences that primarily affected the surface features. To me, the streams are clearly phased. There seems to be a conflation between the term "phase" and a storm tracking close enough to give good QPF. "No phase" sounds very much like an IMBY perspective. I think this is headed toward a major storm. But we were on the SW fringe of a developing gale from the start. The streams are or rather will be phased and the Maritimes look to get hit pretty good. I never saw this as a phase/no phase situation. Sure I was concerned that the southern s/w not lag, but I was much more interested to see the entire trof structure dig further into the south so that the storm development process could initiate sooner. This is kind of like being in southern Va when we get hit good. This is the silliest comment I have seen in a long time. If you want to dynamical discussion regarding this start a new thread before accusing a good forecaster of IMBY wish-casting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I don't really understand this comment. This storm has been pretty consistently modeled over the past couple of days apart from a few overzealous runs of the NAM that had minor differences that primarily affected the surface features. To me, the streams are clearly phased. There seems to be a conflation between the term "phase" and a storm tracking close enough to give good QPF. "No phase" sounds very much like an IMBY perspective. I think this is headed toward a major storm. But we were on the SW fringe of a developing gale from the start. The streams are or rather will be phased and the Maritimes look to get hit pretty good. I never saw this as a phase/no phase situation. Sure I was concerned that the southern s/w not lag, but I was much more interested to see the entire trof structure dig further into the south so that the storm development process could initiate sooner. This is kind of like being in southern Va when we get hit good. I think you're being overly analytical. I guess I should have said the phase doesn't happen fast enough, or over a favorable area for us. The NAM runs yesterday and even at 06z were phasing the streams over the MS valley. Today's run has no phase even at 42 hours...the southern stream shortwave is clearly separated and trailing back along the Southern States. Sure the phase happens eventually and affects Newfoundland, but what does that have to do with us? I guess March 2001 was a successful phase, too, but obviously when you ask anyone here they'll tell you that it didn't phase. It's all relative to location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 So you're saying that he really meant "No phase for you." Phase Nazi? I hope this term sticks... classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 We're going to start seeing some strange models getting posted here in the next few hours, especially if the 18Z GFS backs off and the 00Z runs don't really amp things any further Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 18z RGEM pretty much in line with the rest of the models now. From Philly on North and East are in the 5-10mm shade. Probably 5-8mm from west to east. So .19"-.31" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 GFS first at 0Z then again 12/18z when HPC tossed it. NAM came onboad full time at 18Z that same day. ECMWF came at 0Z 6 hours later--perhaps if it had an 18Z run it also would have. Hard to tell. I don't think the NAM was all the way west yet at 18Z on the 24th. Unfortunately it seems like no one saved the images but based on the dialogue it seems it was still east of NYC. Even 0Z on the 25th was still significantly east. EC's 0Z run was way west of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This is the silliest comment I have seen in a long time. If you want to dynamical discussion regarding this start a new thread before accusing a good forecaster of IMBY wish-casting. I wasn't accusing him of wishcasting. Just wrongly attributing a decreasing threat to a lack of phasing. It's true the phase is slower and less ideal on recent model cycles, but that's not why we're unlikely to get a big storm. Rather, that's why we might only get a few inches when it looked like maybe 4 or 6 a few days ago. I also believe you've been misdiagnosing the situation over the past few days - which is something that I expressed previously. Not every storm threat hinges on this nebulous concept of a phase. We also need to be geographically situated to take advantage of the flow evolution. From several days ago it looked like we would be situated too far SW - perfect phase or not - to get more than moderate snowstorm. And that's exactly what I said to you and earth when you guys were fantasizing aloud about "extreme dynamics" and the like, which is what you do for every single storm threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteorjosh Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 the qpf amounts don't seem to be higher to the east like they were previously. does this mean that the current dry solutions are barely spinning up a coastal at all? Not much of a coastal and moving at the speed of light Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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