pondo1000 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Wow, talk about a big head fake swing and a miss for us here in SW Ohio! http://www.intellica.../Yesterday.aspx Unreal! Funny thing is, we may have a repeat of that next week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dilly84 Posted January 27, 2011 Share Posted January 27, 2011 Artical on WEWS Cleveland http://www.newsnet5.com/dpp/weather/weather_news/february-surprise-storm-track-change-would-bring-heavier-snows-toward-ohio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 What a month of nickel and dime snows. I've had 17 days so far with measurable snow. Mostly 1-2 inch or less events. Monthly total is now over 28". While we haven't had a big storm YET, its been a great winter for persistent snowcover and cold temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 06Z GFS shows near a foot of snow by the end of the day on Wed. next week for most of Ohio, the problem though with this storm is it starts with half foot of snow, then a half inch of ice, then another half foot snow to end! Then longer range models showing over a foot total on the ground by Wed the 9th the following week. Looks like the 1st half of Feb is going to be interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 06Z GFS shows near a foot of snow by the end of the day on Wed. next week for most of Ohio, the problem though with this storm is it starts with half foot of snow, then a half inch of ice, then another half foot snow to end! Then longer range models showing over a foot total on the ground by Wed the 9th the following week. Looks like the 1st half of Feb is going to be interesting! Lots of potential in the long range. I wouldn't get too caught up in amounts just yet. There have been a lot of Charlie Brown/Lucy moments this year with long range storms. Anything is possible at this point. I'm not going to get caught up models runs till Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 What a month of nickel and dime snows. I've had 17 days so far with measurable snow. Mostly 1-2 inch or less events. Monthly total is now over 28". While we haven't had a big storm YET, its been a great winter for persistent snowcover and cold temps. Exactly, I keep watching the seasonal and monthly total creep upwards without a whole lot to show for it. The storm next week is still too far out for me to even get excited over. Ideally I'd like a good storm next week followed by a two week torch that frees up the lake, with a nice arctic blast for the latter half of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted January 28, 2011 Share Posted January 28, 2011 Exactly, I keep watching the seasonal and monthly total creep upwards without a whole lot to show for it. The storm next week is still too far out for me to even get excited over. Ideally I'd like a good storm next week followed by a two week torch that frees up the lake, with a nice arctic blast for the latter half of February. I don't know that I would go that far Let's get next weeks storm locked up first. Looks like I'll be getting back to CLE just in time for the potential storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted January 28, 2011 Author Share Posted January 28, 2011 WOW!!!! If this would only hold !!! http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=OH&stn=KCMH&model=gfs&time=current&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 WOW!!!! If this would only hold !!! http://coolwx.com/cg...rent&field=prec 12Z GFS has warmed into a horrific ice strom for S. Ohio... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted January 31, 2011 Share Posted January 31, 2011 My bro just moved to Indianapolis last summer and it's currently looking like a bad ice storm out there. Too many threads it's hard to follow what the calls are for that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Just bumping this dead thread. Finally made it back home from out west. What an incredibly dense snowpack out there. Good to see the snow again. I would need a jackhammer to break the ice/sleet mixture on my driveway. Looks like a few threats on the horizon starting tomorrow. Hopefully we can cash in a big one soon. Mid-Feb is about my breaking point with winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Wow... just read JB's quote about next week. Did he happen to mention any particular location for this bomb? "In all the years that I've gone back and researched, I cannot find anything to match the severity of what's coming next week. It will be the week of all winter weeks. Will be like surviving a nuclear war and coming out of the bunker afterwards to find devastation. Severe cold and a superstorm ...that is perhaps unequaled in winter weather history." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighTechEE Posted February 4, 2011 Share Posted February 4, 2011 Wow... just read JB's quote about next week. Did he happen to mention any particular location for this bomb? "In all the years that I've gone back and researched, I cannot find anything to match the severity of what's coming next week. It will be the week of all winter weeks. Will be like surviving a nuclear war and coming out of the bunker afterwards to find devastation. Severe cold and a superstorm ...that is perhaps unequaled in winter weather history." Not sure really, 12Z GFS doesn't even show what he's talking about yet 7+ days out, looks like a small system supressed by the fresh artic high in the south the up to the mid Atlantic.. Maybe he's thinking some phasing will occur. He even dropped the Mar'93/Jan'96 references yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Nice surprise to see CLE calling for 3-6. Looks like this storm... at least the ULL will move more NW than expected. Only concern is that the ULL comes overhead or west of here which would most likely put us in the dryslot. I'm assuming the developing surface low takes over and keep the snow going though. Check out the BUF AFD... goes to show the uncertainty with how the models have handled this. THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LOOKS STRONGER AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER AND TRACK FARTHER TO THE WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THEREFORE...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TIMES INDICATED BELOW. HE WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW THAT IS CENTERED ALONG THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND REACH EASTERN OHIO/WESTERN PA BY 00Z. TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK AND PA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...THEN LIFT OUT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS PA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE SETTLING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. THIS FORECAST TRACK OF THE LOW WILL PLACE OUR CWA WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE WHERE THE STEADIEST SNOW IS LIKELY TO FALL. STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL SET UP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A 150 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET HEADS NORTHEAST ACROSS PA...PLACING MOST OF OUR CWA IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT WHERE LIFT IS MAXIMIZED. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER DURING THE MID MORNING...THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS TODAY WILL BE OVER WESTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN TIER. THE LATEST TEMPERATURES PROFILES SUGGEST THAT SOME SLEET MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW CLOSE TO THE PA LINE...BUT WITH THE LAYER OF WARMER ALOFT EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY TO OUR EAST...OUR CWA SHOULD SEE MAINLY SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. OF COURSE...THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE MAIN CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN NEW YORK DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...THE STEADIEST SNOW WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE FINGER LAKES AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS THIS AREA WITH ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. BUT...BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAIN REGARDING THE PATH OF THE LOW...WILL JUST INDICATE ADVISORY ACCUMULATIONS FOR NOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Nice surprise to see CLE calling for 3-6. Looks like this storm... at least the ULL will move more NW than expected. Only concern is that the ULL comes overhead or west of here which would most likely put us in the dryslot. I'm assuming the developing surface low takes over and keep the snow going though. Check out the BUF AFD... goes to show the uncertainty with how the models have handled this. THE UPPER LOW THAT WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LOOKS STRONGER AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE STRONGER AND TRACK FARTHER TO THE WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS OUR ENTIRE CWA FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THEREFORE...A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE TIMES INDICATED BELOW. HE WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW THAT IS CENTERED ALONG THE MISSOURI/ARKANSAS BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND REACH EASTERN OHIO/WESTERN PA BY 00Z. TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW YORK AND PA DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT...THEN LIFT OUT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS PA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE SETTLING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. THIS FORECAST TRACK OF THE LOW WILL PLACE OUR CWA WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE WHERE THE STEADIEST SNOW IS LIKELY TO FALL. STRONG LOW LEVEL THERMAL AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL SET UP ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A 150 KNOT UPPER LEVEL JET HEADS NORTHEAST ACROSS PA...PLACING MOST OF OUR CWA IN THE FAVORABLE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT WHERE LIFT IS MAXIMIZED. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO BEGIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER DURING THE MID MORNING...THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS TODAY WILL BE OVER WESTERN NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN TIER. THE LATEST TEMPERATURES PROFILES SUGGEST THAT SOME SLEET MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW CLOSE TO THE PA LINE...BUT WITH THE LAYER OF WARMER ALOFT EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY TO OUR EAST...OUR CWA SHOULD SEE MAINLY SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM. OF COURSE...THIS COULD CHANGE IF THE MAIN CENTER OF THE LOW TRACKS FARTHER NORTH THAN EXPECTED. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO EASTERN NEW YORK DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT...THE STEADIEST SNOW WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE FINGER LAKES AND THE NORTH COUNTRY. THE SNOW COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES ACROSS THIS AREA WITH ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLY APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY. BUT...BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAIN REGARDING THE PATH OF THE LOW...WILL JUST INDICATE ADVISORY ACCUMULATIONS FOR NOW. This could miss us to the west! The string of advisories does not match up well with the radar. RUC has the heaviest snows now in NW Ohio. Some of the BUF mesos have .7" of QPF NW of us over Lake Erie. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 This could miss us to the west! The string of advisories does not match up well with the radar. RUC has the heaviest snows now in NW Ohio. Some of the BUF mesos have .7" of QPF NW of us over Lake Erie. Unreal. Right now the best snows are still west of us... but so is the ULL. Not sure this is going to miss us to the west... the ULL is moving easterly now. Surface low should be taking shape as well. 12z nam juiced up a bit... if that were to verify we would be looking at 5-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 This could miss us to the west! The string of advisories does not match up well with the radar. RUC has the heaviest snows now in NW Ohio. Some of the BUF mesos have .7" of QPF NW of us over Lake Erie. Unreal. I'm not sure how well the the mesos do with synoptic systems. You're right... the BUF mesos are ugly. Congrats lake erie. Snow just starting here. Going to be interesting to see how this plays out. My biggest concern is the ULL low coming overhead... but it should remain south here if it continues on the current path. Precip is starting to fill in on radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Snow having a hard time getting going in the NE part of the state. Off and on snowshowers with the sun poking through at times. Snow looks cellular on radar. Doesn't look like the heavier snow makes it up here for a few hours. Hopefully we can stay in the pivot band for awhile to get a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carumba Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Snow having a hard time getting going in the NE part of the state. Off and on snowshowers with the sun poking through at times. Snow looks cellular on radar. Doesn't look like the heavier snow makes it up here for a few hours. Hopefully we can stay in the pivot band for awhile to get a few inches. Yeah, I hear ya. We started out with light snow for about 1/2 hr, then it stopped, then it started again, then it grew heavier for 15 minutes, now it's partly sunny and snowing lightly. Just can't seem to muster up the energy to get its groove on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 We're getting hammered here in Toledo... this is worse than the big "blizzard" last week. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Yeah, I hear ya. We started out with light snow for about 1/2 hr, then it stopped, then it started again, then it grew heavier for 15 minutes, now it's partly sunny and snowing lightly. Just can't seem to muster up the energy to get its groove on. Weak precip shield NE of the low. Pressure falls are on the OH,PA, WVA border. Snow shield is entering the western counties and should spread east later on. Looks like its going to thump for a few hours if the snow can maintain its strength. Delayed but not denied at this point. I'm not calling a bust until the storm is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Snow finally coming down nicely... with a little sleet mixed in . Looking at the precip shield... it appears to be weakening overall, yet the storm is getting stronger. It snow where it wants to snow this year. And east of 71 in OH is just isn't happening. We'll be lucky to pull out an inch or two -- debbie downer mode. Bullseye area is central lake erie. Congrats walleye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 The heavier snow just started... and the low is still in Eastern OH NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... THE SNOW WILL END THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LOW MOVES EAST AND THE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE INFLUENCE OF THE LAKE WILL BE MINIMAL FOR THE SNOW BELT. THE THREAT OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS JUST ABOUT OVER. KEPT SLEET GOING IN THE NORTHEAST EARLY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS JUST ABOUT OVER AS THE LOW IS OVER WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND IS MOVING EAST. CONTINUED THE ADVISORIES AS IS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Pivot point ended up less than 25 miles south of here. Low is heading east now and the northward movement has stopped. Snow has been ripping at 1-2 per hour... huge flakes. Probably some lake moisture helping the snow. So close to calling a bust on this one... turned out ok. Looks like this may last another 2 hours or so. Crazy how things work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Pivot point ended up less than 25 miles south of here. Low is heading east now and the northward movement has stopped. Snow has been ripping at 1-2 per hour... huge flakes. Probably some lake moisture helping the snow. So close to calling a bust on this one... turned out ok. Looks like this may last another 2 hours or so. Crazy how things work out. Yeah. It's starting to pivot now. We could do ok. Hard to believe this thing tracked so far NW in just a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Also of note, the seasonal snow total at CLE has been lowered by about 3-4". I don't understand how that works and how they leave YNG unchanged?!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 around 3 inches here....seems like lake moisture is helping out....there are some ice break ups off avon point and out towards Lorain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 Also of note, the seasonal snow total at CLE has been lowered by about 3-4". I don't understand how that works and how they leave YNG unchanged?!? Up to 3 inches now. Unreal how fast that snow fell. Large flake size certainly helped. With N'erly winds we should see a brief period of intense snow before this all moves east. I didn't realize the seasonal snowfall had been reduced. Gotta love the weather clowns at CLE. They truly are inept at their jobs. YNG is a laugh at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northernohio Posted February 5, 2011 Share Posted February 5, 2011 about 4 inches here now and still snowing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted February 6, 2011 Share Posted February 6, 2011 Was out on a retreat in Delaware, OH yesterday and today and we got about 2 or 2.5 inches I'd say. I was shocked to see ice on the trees still in the shade!! Lots of damage also from the ice...Much worse than down here in Columbus for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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