am19psu Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 honestly, i think alot has to come down to this weekends storm and how strong that 50/50 low gets and how the blocking holds up I'm with you. Don't underestimate how strong the CAA is at the surface in the Midwest either. Watch how the heights crash as the surface high builds down. That effectively acts to block the system from cutting too quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 honestly, i think alot has to come down to this weekends storm and how strong that 50/50 low gets and how the blocking holds up I could have saved myself a post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Is that a familiar board member's master's thesis cited in that passage? At least it looks like the longer system one hangs around the snowier the solutions, that is unless it hangs around too long than its OTS. Ahem... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Look at the bottom 4 ensemble members from the 18z ensembles which are all similar to the 18z NOGAPS solution. So there is definitely support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Is that a familiar board member's master's thesis cited in that passage? Yep,Tony did a great job along with Kocin.I am not familar with the other authors though. http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0434%281995%29010%3C0005%3AWWFTTE%3E2.0.CO%3B2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Yep,Tony did a great job along with Kocin.I am not familar with the other authors though. Was that the northeast wintertime snow forecasting edition of Weather and Forecasting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Was that the northeast wintertime snow forecasting edition of Weather and Forecasting? I found it on the AMS site.That storm really surprised me at the time. I can remember getting home from work in some light snow here and seeing all the snow out to my east on News12 that night. http://journals.amet...TE%3E2.0.CO%3B2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Was that the northeast wintertime snow forecasting edition of Weather and Forecasting? wow Tony, i didn't know you were famous lol. How long did you work at nws nyc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I found it on the AMS site.That storm really surprised me at the time. I can remember getting home from work in some light snow here and seeing all the snow out to my east on News12 that night. http://journals.amet...TE%3E2.0.CO%3B2 I can't open the link for some reason, that was the storm where Tom Grant put out the sps about us becoming observers vs forecasting, that was an amazing ptype/temp gradient. We were commenting today about that event and then the 18z runs came in. That's what this one still looks like, someone is getting norluned, most of the rest of us advisoried. We'll see. I'll trying opening it from another pc later. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 wow Tony, i didn't know you were famous lol. How long did you work at nws nyc? I rotated between all of the NYC airports and the WFO between 1983 and 1993 before we moved down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I tell you, the 18z GEFS members run the gamut. Just looking at H5, you can see everything from OTS, to a Miller A KU, to a Miller B jumping off the coast near 40N, to a true lakes cutter. We have a lot of work to do over the next week. Shh lets focus on the inverted trough first Someone is going to get dumped on IMO, that band looks to mean business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bliz299 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 wow! now that's what i call cold I would like to know where this data is located. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I would like to know where this data is located. Thanks! thats northeast philly intl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HSNN4 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Because of Tony I became so interested in the weather along with Harry Woodworth (Ret) NWS employee out of Mount Holly which use at work at the Newark WSO years ago. Still remember talking shop with Tony as the difax weather charts rolled in at Newark, Tony GiGi is one of the nicest guys you will ever meet out of the National Weather Service period. Thanks Tony for many years of true friendship !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I can't open the link for some reason, that was the storm where Tom Grant put out the sps about us becoming observers vs forecasting, that was an amazing ptype/temp gradient. We were commenting today about that event and then the 18z runs came in. That's what this one still looks like, someone is getting norluned, most of the rest of us advisoried. We'll see. I'll trying opening it from another pc later. Thanks! I attended a small weather conference at the NWS when it was in NYC during the mid 80's.I think that Tom Grant was the one doing the lecture. All that I know is that I immediately recognized his voice from listening to my weather radio from the 70's on.I think that Elaine Lewis was also there and I got to meet Al Roker.That vintage radar scope was really cool to see in person. Here is the non PDF version of the page which may be easier to open: http://journals.amet...archHistoryKey= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I attended a small weather conference at the NWS when it was in NYC during the mid 80's.I think that Tom Grant was the one doing the lecture. All that I know is that I immediately recognized his voice from listening to my weather radio from the 70's on.I think that Elaine Lewis was also there and I got to meet Al Roker.That vintage radar scope was really cool to see in person. Here is the non PDF version of the page which may be easier to open: http://journals.amet...archHistoryKey= Chris Thanks, that worked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Because of Tony I became so interested in the weather along with Harry Woodworth (Ret) NWS employee out of Mount Holly which use at work at the Newark WSO years ago. Still remember talking shop with Tony as the difax weather charts rolled in at Newark, Tony GiGi is one of the nicest guys you will ever meet out of the National Weather Service period. Thanks Tony for many years of true friendship !! Tony, You must have always caught me on my good days. Thanks and Woody still pops in here on weekends to help with Skywarn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 2nd storm snow depth Did they intentionally delete Long Island from their weather map? WTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Did they intentionally delete Long Island from their weather map? WTF? people complain about snowholes over their areas...we don't even exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 These Norlun set ups have a very sharp cutoff to the snow. I can remember getting very light accumulations here back in DEC 88 while areas just to my east did very well. I was on an Eastern Airlines flight leaving for Florida for good (until I moved back) when that happened. I remember hearing that it was a blizzard outside. The flight was delayed for a long time and they almost lost my dog too. Coupled with the fact that I was moving to a hell hole in Florida.... yeaaahhhh. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Did they intentionally delete Long Island from their weather map? WTF? people complain about snowholes over their areas...we don't even exist. Wow it looks a lot better without it to be honest.... lol just kidding. Regardless, here is my forecast: Friday storm: 0-3 inches regionwide with isolated higher amounts in (if) norlun dump zone. Next week storm: 0-30 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 honestly, i think alot has to come down to this weekends storm and how strong that 50/50 low gets and how the blocking holds up Ding Ding, best post in this thread!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArtRosen Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Wow it looks a lot better without it to be honest.... lol just kidding. Regardless, here is my forecast: Friday storm: 0-3 inches regionwide with isolated higher amounts in (if) norlun dump zone. Next week storm: 0-30 inches. Well, you can't go wrong with your second forecast, though I think your first one is wrong. I think some parts of central LI get 6-10 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Well, you can't go wrong with your second forecast, though I think your first one is wrong. I think some parts of central LI get 6-10 inches. Oh. Well I haven't really been following it so it was mostly just my natural fortune telling skills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasonli18t Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 Well, you can't go wrong with your second forecast, though I think your first one is wrong. I think some parts of central LI get 6-10 inches. Quite generous. If you could bet on norlun's in vegas it would get pretty steep odds. It would also give me something to do when i stand up from the poker table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I would like to know where this data is located. Thanks! yea its KPNE MeteoStar data here: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=kpne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 I rotated between all of the NYC airports and the WFO between 1983 and 1993 before we moved down here. I remember reading your AFD's from North coastal NJ like it was yesterday as we've already discussed on the seizure causing old advertising channel 12 on cablevision in monmouth county :thumbsup: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 A LOT of the 18z ensemble members...like 1/4....are showing an OV cutter along with quite a few of the 12z Euro members. That is troubling......we can only hope the block holds up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 A LOT of the 18z ensemble members...like 1/4....are showing an OV cutter along with quite a few of the 12z Euro members. That is troubling......we can only hope the block holds up. yea that deff is a solution that can possibly happen. Whenever you get a trof in the west like progged that is suppose to dig like it is, thats always going to get the se ridge life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 5, 2011 Share Posted January 5, 2011 yea that deff is a solution that can possibly happen. Whenever you get a trof in the west like progged that is suppose to dig like it is, thats always going to get the se ridge life. you have the srefs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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