Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

Tracking the Jan 7-9 threat---for those with strong hearts


MDstorm

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 728
  • Created
  • Last Reply

12z 12/30 euro is officially on board for this at day 9 with a low around Wilmington NC that looks to be running due E or maybe ENE off the coast. Certainly looks cold enough for you guys up there if the moisture can make it in.

can you post a map please!! thanks. that is yesterdays, isn't it. Does the 00z run show it??

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A REQUEST:

Can we keep the "the storm is at X," "the QPF is 0.1" more this run," "how much does the Euro give MBY," etc. posts out of the picture until we're within the 84 hour window? It has been and will always be pointless banter. This far out, we need to be looking at the upper-levels, possible model inaccuracies and probable outcomes of the system.

excellent post.!!! Let the mets and more experienced observers handle this one. Too many people who dont know what their talking about giving analysis. It clutters up the thread to the point you dont really know what is true.I know is a hobbyist board, but the people that really want to know what is going on, extraneous posts ruin a valuable model thread. Not trying to be nasty, but the last storm too many people who have no idea of what is going on commented.

I,m content to sit on the side line and read. Others should follow suit.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

excellent post.!!! Let the mets and more experienced observers handle this one. Too many people who dont know what their talking about giving analysis. It clutters up the thread to the point you dont really know what is true.I know is a hobbyist board, but the people that really want to know what is going on, extraneous posts ruin a valuable model thread. Not trying to be nasty, but the last storm too many people who have no idea of what is going on commented.

I,m content to sit on the side line and read. Others should follow suit.

I have to agree with this. AMEN!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

<br />Already a bunch of red flags for this potential next event next weekend....I'm laying low for this one.<br />
<br /><br /><br />

Shouldn't you be out buying your big boy pants? Anyway, there is likely going to be a storm somewhere on or off the east coast next weekend. Suppression/OTS is certainly a possibility, but this is something worth following. Hopefully we can get a met to chime in about the set-up and how it may evolve.

MDstorm

Link to comment
Share on other sites

<br /><br /><br />

Shouldn't you be out buying your big boy pants? Anyway, there is likely going to be a storm somewhere on or off the east coast next weekend. Suppression/OTS is certainly a possibility, but this is something worth following. Hopefully we can get a met to chime in about the set-up and how it may evolve.

MDstorm

post-534-0-92911600-1293805975.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking at the 00Z GFS NAO from Allens site wouldn't this argue for 2 events on the east coast. One around the 7th and 8th and the other 3 or 4 days later?

The funny thing is that what the GFS is showing here is that the NAO is technically positive out by the 16th. The blocking retrogrades into the Davis/Baffin area, allowing the negative height anomolies to retrograde from Europe westward and eventually nip Iceland. There is still one hell of a block up there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here's the next threat popping up. Looking at the setup at this time I would think that would go up into the midwest and great lakes if not even farther west then that.

00Z

This would be an Archumbault event. The blocking would have to reload again afterwards, similar to this weekends events.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

i cant believe we're really talking about a day, what 8?, threat.. yeah this is a wx board so we should but does anyone believe it at all?

You have to believe when you think you are going to get screwed all winter. For the last storm the Euro was pretty damn good this far out except for our area.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Soggy Ian is back!

i should have stayed soggy last time. :(

yeah someone will chime in with -- the euro picked up on the blizz around this time etc. i mean whatever.. im not going to spend too much time on it myself at least. ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You have to believe when you think you are going to get screwed all winter. For the last storm the Euro was pretty damn good this far out except for our area.

you beat my post!

ill hold out hope.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Who's going to start a thread to track Wednesday's/Thursdays possible event? 12Z GFS JUST misses a phase with the spoke of energy moving SE around the PV and a s/w ejecting out of the four corners.

post-772-0-17604800-1293814976.gif

6Z does not miss, but is weak with the surface reflection. If the phase occurs it would likely slow and back the fast flow enough to get precip up in here.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/06zf150.html

Let's see what the Euro says today.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Who's going to start a thread to track Wednesday's/Thursdays possible event? 12Z GFS JUST misses a phase with the spoke of energy moving SE around the PV and a s/w ejecting out of the four corners.

6Z does not miss, but is weak with the surface reflection.

If the phase occurs it would likely slow and back the fast flow enough to get precip up in here. Let's see what the Euro says today.

http://raleighwx.ame...rs/06zf150.html

soggy>sounds like we have a lot of misses to track<soggy

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Chase to Norfolk?

might be smart. :P

unfortunately there is precedent (with several different storms) for places south to do well and us to mainly miss out.

now i said i wouldnt watch, which is a lie i guess, but there is certainly a tendency for big storms on the east coast for over a yr now... so the euro is perhaps already catching on to something. if it wasnt 8 days away and knowing how the last one ended up i'd like where we sit at least a little.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...