atownwxwatcher Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 <br />This particular 384 totals map is contoured at 1" intervals. It's accurate. Correct , in other words it shows from 0 to 1 inch QPF thru the 384 hr period. I should have reworded a little bit better but the perception that i was getting from the two previous posts was such things as a "snow hole" etc.. " lack of precipitation " etc because talk lately has been around snow shortages etc. When one normally views their area in white they perceive that as "precipitation free" which was the impression that i was getting thru the two previous posts ..which is what i should have referenced as incorrect if that was the perception because those two images that i linked to showed indeed that the area does get precipitation just not as much as surrounding areas & that is what I meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Miller B here all the way.......every red tagger on here agrees that is what the ensemble mean is depicting I would not go as far as saying it does not support the operational solution but i also would not go as far as saying it supports it 100%... At least from these images of the means it looks like there is a low pressure around Hatteras that would move NNE from there... I would say at the very least it gives some support to the Operational run...where the operational run becomes a real outlier is actually out in its long range with the cutter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Miller B here all the way.......every red tagger on here agrees that is what the ensemble mean is depicting I do not think i said anywhere that it could not potentially be a Miller B..I simply said i would not say that the means do not exactly support the OP as they do support the op but not completely and fully... However,,,would not rest confident on a Miller B either...as tonight could have a whole new array of solutions once again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Cross polar flow has been give at Day 9 on the 18z GFS....huge block (564dm) over AK: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 GGEM looks alot more interesting then the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 0z Euro has a miller B for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Haha where's tombo when you need him. Looks like that miller b would probably screw dc-philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Haha where's tombo when you need him. Looks like that miller b would probably screw dc-philly. yeah pretty much...Trenton -Boston gets a decent event from that miller B...a complete 180 from 12z and this op run supports its 12z ensemble mean no if we could get that baby to dig alittle more and gather more moisture... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Quite a shift from the last 2 runs, but more in line with its ensembles. As depicted, looks to screw NYC and south. A New England event------how special. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 0z Euro has a miller B for next weekend. Maybe Tom will chime in. It doesn't really look that far off depending on earlier frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Maybe Tom will chime in. It doesn't really look that far off depending on earlier frames. Trenton on northeast to boston get a decent event verbatim with high ratios too... this could easily change though if there is more digging to get the low to deepen further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Trenton on northeast to boston get a decent event verbatim with high ratios too... this could easily change though if there is more digging to get the low to deepen further south I'm glad there's at least a storm threat. We need some things to happen: on the Euro, we do need more digging. On the GFS, there's a lot of gulf moisture, but the PV is too far south. Hard to be too positive or negative yet; time for this to evolve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 0z Euro has a miller B for next weekend. its not that great really at all....boston get .25-.5...looking at it looks like the 18z gfs with the northern stream feature, but just drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 basically from m/d line north gets .1 or more from the northern stream feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Since this doesn't appear to be a busy period, QPF for NYC and L.I.? nyc .1-.25 western li -.1-.25 central li about .25 eastern li .25-.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Much obliged. What do they charge to subscribe to the ECMWF good charts? the stuff i get which is pretty basic stuff, if 30 a month...then you can get the extra stuff for 200 a month i believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Happy New Year's to all. I don't think we should take the models too seriously this far out. Instead of going too far out for any upcoming event, I'm not going to beyond Day 5. I mean I know that with the past event, we followed it out by nearly 10 days, but the disappointment would have been huge had the storm been a complete failure. I know not every storm will be a success so following at closer ranges is probably the best method. The same goes for any arctic air masses. The potential is once again huge but that doesn't mean will see another MECS/HECS in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 $200 a month...that's more than my satellite and cell phone bill combined... pretty steep. that includes the euro ens,weeklies, and monthlies plus other euro features i believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 1, 2011 Author Share Posted January 1, 2011 Nice, but I think I'll pass...after all..you give great play by play anyway right here... hahah thank you...yea i don't do the 200 dollar one, i stick to the 30, has just what i need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Accuweather Pro has a lot of EURO data too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 The DGEX has some light snow next Thursday/Friday for our area. A bit heavier down towards VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 My Wxsim module has a little over 1" of snow on Thursday morning for the NW Philly burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 hahah thank you...yea i don't do the 200 dollar one, i stick to the 30, has just what i need. Tombo, Happy New Year ! Am I going to have to find an open golf course for Thu/Fri? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 GFS is a BIG hit at 150 hrs. with a 978mb off NJ! GFS shows nothing in that time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 How the heck did that happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 Deepens to a 970mb at 156 hrs. with big time qpf for NYC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 963mb at 162 hrs. Major big time!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 960mb at 168 hrs!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveB Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 These type of bombing clippers 'usually' screw the MA fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 1, 2011 Share Posted January 1, 2011 The 12z/01 GFS brings down a huge chunk of the PV for big storm off the Jersey coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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