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Central PA Autumn 2026


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October Climate Summary - Chester County Area. See details and overall rankings since 1890 below. We were slightly warmer than normal +0.8 and about average regarding precipitation. Through the 1st 10 months of the year we are running at 0.5 degrees below normal temperatures.

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6 hours ago, mahantango#1 said:

Some pics from last week of the beautiful foilage.

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I agree with you and Blizz, this was one of the most beautiful foliage seasons that I can ever remember. One of the other neat little touches was the perfect colorful donut rings of leaves that formed under the trees until the wind blew them away the other day.

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15 hours ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

I agree with you and Blizz, this was one of the most beautiful foliage seasons that I can ever remember. One of the other neat little touches was the perfect colorful donut rings of leaves that formed under the trees until the wind blew them away the other day.

Did you know that October 2026 was one of the LEAST WINDY Octobers on record in Central PA?
With high pressure nearby for most of the month, there was little to no wind most days!
A wet summer followed by a dry, warm, & calm October made for IDEAL fall colors
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Today we should see highs from low 60's in ridge locations to the mid 60's in valley spots with lows tonight in the upper 30's to mid 40's. Highs will peak on Wednesday with highs in the low 70's which is around 10-12 degrees above normal before we return to near normal over the weekend. We should see a pronounced pattern change during the upcoming weekend with temperatures by Sunday falling to below normal levels for November with temperatures later next week getting no higher than the lower 50's. It has been a while since our last rain but our best chance of rain is Friday with around 0.68" according to the ChescoWx model. Of note 165 years ago today back in 1861 the Chester County Area was at the start of a storm that left as much as 2.04" of rain at Pocopson. This was an unnamed tropical storm which tracked within about 140 miles of the county.

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I don't religiously follow or listen to just a few accounts on Twitter but I really like this write up by this one user. We really do need some miracle like Jan 2016 if we want to see a decent snowstorm this year probably. But every year and El Nino is different in its own unique ways that aren't always fully apparent. I do agree with them this one will stay east based.

 

Also I was looking at record highs for the months of Nov Dec and you see the other two super el nino year's pop up a couple times with 1998 and 2015

https://x.com/WeatherSphere22/status/2117343739295240430

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The NAM computer model is being retired!
I’m not crying. You’re crying!
Budget Cuts have led to these models being ‘retired’ and replaced by RRFS. Unfortunately, this new model version 1 that we have seen has many flaws and many of us in the weather community do not believe it’s ready for prime time.
I’ve showed it a few times and had to acknowledge when it failed.
We may be seeing v2 go into production.
No model is perfect. It is “Guidance NOT Gospel”, for us to incorporate, but also identify the bias.
I have used many models over the years. I remember the LFM, NGM, and especially the MRF when it saw the Superstorm of March 1993 five days (120 hours) ahead of time.
There have been countless times I’ve labeled a model map with NAM 3Km (the 3 kilometer high resolution product suite). Including this last January in something I documented extensively here.
The NAM 3 Km model accurately called the Sleet Storm timing and totals very well ninjas a hard time trusting 3”+ of sleet with the early change over from snow.
This model has a bias to overdo convection/thunderstorms, but performed best in winter with Cold Air Damming and Wintery Mix Changeover.
It will be missed and there will be time to sift through new support systems.
That is the way.
For now, Goodbye NAM.
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Happy Election Day I hope all who can get out to vote! Weather will not be the excuse! Today we should see highs from upper 60's in ridge locations to the low 70's in valley spots. This is about 6 degrees above normal with lows tonight in the mid 40's to low 50's. Temperatures will peak on Wednesday with highs in the low 70's which is about 12 degrees above normal before we return to near normal by Monday, but by the end of next week we should see a sharp turn to chillier weather with temperatures at least a few degrees below normal. It has been a while since our last rain but our next soaking rain looks to arrive Friday with around 1.3" possible according to the ChescoWx model. By next Tuesday morning we should see lows in the mid 30's to low 40's, not far from freezing in the colder valleys! Of note on this date back in 2003 Phoenixville 1E hit 83 degrees and the county as a whole averaged 79.3 for a high...making it our warmest November 3rd since records began in 1890.

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For those on Team Snow I have launched a new historical snowstorm mapping feature on the website that produces a snow accumulation map across the area including all surrounding counties and Philadelphia. This includes our 50 largest snowstorms since the 1890's. https://chescowx.com/snowstorm-maps/ below is the great March 1958 snowstorm.

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