Central PA Autumn 2026

[Voyager]

I wish the big cold front was delayed by 24-36 hours. We have an outdoor wedding to attend as our neighbor's granddaughter is getting married on Saturday. Guess I'm going to have to put long johns (being sarcastic) on under my suit, because upper 40's with wind is not going to be pleasant.

[mahantango#1]

43 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I wish the big cold front was delayed by 24-36 hours. We have an outdoor wedding to attend as our neighbor's granddaughter is getting married on Saturday. Guess I'm going to have to put long johns (being sarcastic) on under my suit, because upper 40's with wind is not going to be pleasant.

indeed It will not be pleasant. 

[pawatch]

84 for the high…as mentioned a record here. Old record was 83.

57 degrees this morning.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

62 at the house, 57 through the low rurals. Got a muggy one to get through today. Onward. 

[Jonesy56]

shall we discuss the total and complete collapse of every single model and ensemble model for this past system. The HRRR literally had a negative skill score at 3 hours that's how bad it was. and it wasn't just the American the euro is just as bad I don't know what that hints for this winter time but that was the most epic and total failure I have seen by models in a long long time

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

I’m a little late, but I finally got the chance to check out the CPA Weather Lab site you put together and wanted to say thanks. Really nice interface with a lot of useful info one place for our neck of the woods. Appreciate your efforts!


.

[ChescoWx]

Of note 141 years ago today back in 1885 Chester County was on the last day of a 3 day storm that left as much as 2.48" of rain at West Chester 2NW. This was the remnants of an unnamed tropical storm which tracked within about 100 miles of the county. Today we should see highs in the upper 70's to low 80's which is about 15 degrees above normal with lows tonight in the low to mid 50's. Temperatures will run 5 to 10 degrees above normal through Friday but by Saturday we drop to 4 to 8 degrees below normal, before we return to near normal by Tuesday. By Sunday morning lows will be in the low to mid 30's with a freeze possible in the colder valleys! Our best chance of rain is Friday with around 0.31" according to the ChescoWx model.

[canderson]

5 hours ago, Voyager said:

I wish the big cold front was delayed by 24-36 hours. We have an outdoor wedding to attend as our neighbor's granddaughter is getting married on Saturday. Guess I'm going to have to put long johns (being sarcastic) on under my suit, because upper 40's with wind is not going to be pleasant.

The three Cleveland v TB games Thursday, Friday and Saturday will be pretty wild.  

[ChescoWx]

Extended Ensemble outlook (not a forecast) shows a cooler trend than normal for last week of October and into the first couple weeks of November.

 

[ChescoWx]

How does the ChescoWx East Nantmeal forecast stack up against the National Weather Service? After 7 weeks of scoring every forecast against what actually happened, the temperature results are pretty clear!

Since August 22 we have verified 50 days and about 2,800 high and low temperature forecasts, each one matched up against the NWS forecast for the same day issued at the same time.

ChescoWx was closer on temperatures on 45 of the 50 days. The NWS was closer on 4 and 1 was dead even.

The typical ChescoWx miss was about 1.8 degrees. The typical NWS miss was about 3.0 degrees.

For tomorrow's forecast the gap is widest... about 1 degree for ChescoWx vs about 2.5 degrees for the NWS. The edge holds out through day 6 and the two are basically even by day 7.

About 8 in 10 ChescoWx forecasts landed within 3 degrees of the actual temperature vs about 6 in 10 for the NWS. Much of the NWS gap is a warm lean on daytime highs of about 3 degrees in our backyard.

Rainfall is a different story. On the 10 days with measurable rain the NWS did a bit better, and both forecasts badly missed our two biggest rain events (1.66" on September 3 and 2.42" on October 11). Rain is where we are focused on improving next.

Fair caveat... 50 days of late summer and early fall is a start, not a final verdict. We will keep scoring every forecast through the winter, and snow will be the real test!

The live scorecard is on the Current Weather page here:
https://chescowx.com/current-weather/

Let me know if any questions!

[Itstrainingtime]

4 hours ago, canderson said:

The three Cleveland v TB games Thursday, Friday and Saturday will be pretty wild.  

Game 3 tomorrow was moved up from 6pm to 1pm to try and avoid some of the weather issues. 

[WmsptWx]

7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Game 3 tomorrow was moved up from 6pm to 1pm to try and avoid some of the weather issues. 

Which is insane. I'm sorry, but the American League Championship Series should not be played during the day for any reason. If the weather sucks, postpone. People are paying thousands of dollars for a game that may not happen very often, especially for the two clubs in question. There should never be a scenario in which a chair is without an ass to fill it because work gets in the way. 

[Mikeymac5306]

50 minutes ago, WmsptWx said:

Which is insane. I'm sorry, but the American League Championship Series should not be played during the day for any reason. If the weather sucks, postpone. People are paying thousands of dollars for a game that may not happen very often, especially for the two clubs in question. There should never be a scenario in which a chair is without an ass to fill it because work gets in the way. 

You do realize the majority of playoff games in the 70's and 80's and even some 90's were during the day? Like on Tuesday and what not?