Monday, August 31 - Thursday, September 3, 2026 Convective Episodes

[Cyclone-68]

There must be a reason why the same areas have been struck repeatedly. I’ll settle for a garden variety storm at this point 

[weatherwiz]

19 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Quite the temp gradient b/w NJ and CT upper 80's to 60's eastern half of CT

Yup...definitely want to focus where that sets up. It could be an active night tomorrow night, especially if activity across NY/NE PA is more widespread than modeled. That's some hefty elevated instability moving overhead later in the evening. When you have large MUCAPE building in and either weak forcing or already established convection...convection tends to either persist or continue blossoming. 

[Chrisrotary12]

Over/under 0.5 rumbles of thunder heard this week

[weatherwiz]

Updated to extend to Thursday. NAM, GFS, and Euro are in agreement in the warm sector expanding northeast on Thursday as the upper-level trough swinging across southeastern Canada along with the eastward progression of the parent low help lift the surface warm front into the region. Pretty strong shear too. 

Tuesday looks good for southeast propagating storms at least across western CT with some severe risk. Much of Wednesday is dry but may see a round of rain and storms move across the region Wednesday night. Thursday we get stuff ahead of the actual front. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

HRRR has some hard right turners going through CT this afternoon.  6z was violent, we shall see if we can get some good ones today. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

HRRR has some hard right turners going through CT this afternoon.  6z was violent, we shall see if we can get some good ones today. 

Weenies or Tors?

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Weenies or Tors?

I think we get a Tornado watch today, any strong storm that forms will be rotating 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I think we get a Tornado watch today, any strong storm that forms will be rotating 

Probably River west. Not here 

[vortex95]

Swrn CT...again!!! Scott mad....
 

[Go Kart Mozart]

The showers entering WConn are strengthening on approach...a rare sight!

[CoastalWx]

Danbury S and W

[Great Snow 1717]

I've felt for some time that BOX has been struggling and this goes to my point...

Definitely a sign of fall approaching, with robust northern stream
Friday yielding a baroclinic 998 mb maritime low late Fri/Sat. This
will yield a cool, brisk NE flow into the SNE over the weekend.
Highs likely remaining in the 70s and overnight lows in the 50s. It
will feel even cooler over southeast MA, including Cape Cod and the
Islands, with northeast winds 15-25 mph. Cool cyclonic flow aloft
will yield diurnal clouds each day and possibly a spot shower.
Otherwise, dry weather prevails. Possibly warmer and less wind for
Memorial Day Monday, as high amplitude trough moves offshore and
1025 mb high settles over SNE.

Memorial Day Monday????

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I've felt for some time that BOX has been struggling and this goes to my point...

Definitely a sign of fall approaching, with robust northern stream
Friday yielding a baroclinic 998 mb maritime low late Fri/Sat. This
will yield a cool, brisk NE flow into the SNE over the weekend.
Highs likely remaining in the 70s and overnight lows in the 50s. It
will feel even cooler over southeast MA, including Cape Cod and the
Islands, with northeast winds 15-25 mph. Cool cyclonic flow aloft
will yield diurnal clouds each day and possibly a spot shower.
Otherwise, dry weather prevails. Possibly warmer and less wind for
Memorial Day Monday, as high amplitude trough moves offshore and
1025 mb high settles over SNE.

Memorial Day Monday????

I wish I could start summer over. 

[Damage In Tolland]

SPC has nothing in SNE for Thursday. Meanwhile BOX goes wild in AFD for pike south 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I wish I could start summer over. 

You are not a winter guy lol....don't worry you'll enjoy your retirement years in FLA....

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

You are not a winter guy lol....don't worry you'll enjoy your retirement years in FLA....

I love winter,  but it’s slowly slipping away. No need to retire to FL, FL will come to us now.

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

SPC has nothing in SNE for Thursday. Meanwhile BOX goes wild in AFD for pike south 

Thursday could be interesting, but as usual too many variables to nail down. 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I love winter,  but it’s slowly slipping away. No need to retire to FL, FL will come to us now.

You are indoors for most of the winter lol

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

You are indoors for most of the winter lol

You need to adapt to a warming world. I have. 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

You need to adapt to a warming world. I have. 

Nope, the plan is to move north and also buy a 2nd home in the UK....quite likely Wales, Scotland or Ireland.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Nope, the plan is to move north and also buy a 2nd home in the UK....quite likely Wales, Scotland or Ireland.

That sounds horrific 

[weatherwiz]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

HRRR has some hard right turners going through CT this afternoon.  6z was violent, we shall see if we can get some good ones today. 

yeah some of these HRRR runs overnight definitely are intriguing. 

[weatherwiz]

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Thursday could be interesting, but as usual too many variables to nail down. 

Shocked we don't have a marginal 

[Great Snow 1717]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That sounds horrific 

 

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That sounds horrific 

You are making my point that you are not a winter guy...in the coming years you and your buddy from tolland will be sitting around the shuffleboard area at some condo place in FLA....perhaps living side by side....while watching the Weather Channel as they report on an historic blizzard in New England...all the while thinking "Those Poor Bastards" lol

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Shocked we don't have a marginal 

You shouldn't be!..they are still trying to determine if next Monday is Memorial Day or Labor Day..

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

 

You are making my point that you are not a winter guy...in the coming years you and your buddy from tolland will be sitting around the shuffleboard area at some condo place in FLA....perhaps living side by side....while watching the Weather Channel as the report on an historic blizzard in New England...all the while thinking "Those Poor Bastards" lol

Del Boca Vista?

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Del Boca Vista?

Mar Lago of course...

[Damage In Tolland]

Could be a few bolts of lightning Wednesday night